Put simply, I cannot in good conscience pick a team to repeat as division champs after losing both their best starting pitcher and their best reliever to free agency. This team wasn't really outstanding last year, and with these two key losses, I'm going to pick them for second place. I don't dislike the team, but I think it might be someone else's turn to shine this season. That said, the team is a trade away from really standing out from the pack and easily winning the division. Replacing the likes of Hudson or Mota, however, isn't an easy task. 

Offense:

Extremely good hitters in Jersey, as the lineup is capable of hitting upwards of .290 as a team. The addition of Erstad in center was nice, as he was underused in Paris and could score a lot runs ahead of Klesko, Bagwell and Vladdy. Posada is a great hitting catcher, and the young second baseman Josh Barfield could really make a name for himself this year. Assuming Jiminez doesn't stink it up at leadoff, this is a lineup with very few holes. 

Pitching:

Losing Hudson was a big blow, and unfortunately for the Gamblers, Freddy Garcia doesn't look like the best replacement. Still, the rotation sports the likes of Schmidt, Morris and Byrd, so should still be among the best in the division. Joel Piniero needs to prove himself this season, as his sparkling sub-2.00 ERA at Halifax never turned into much down the coast. A lot of new faces in the bullpen, including two rookies, so late innings could be interesting.

Man on the Spot:

Matt Morris. He had a pretty bad spring, and with the departure of Hudson, needs to not be bad. In fact, he needs to be good.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Lost more than they gained. Both players that they restricted didn't end up being matched, and in the end, the Gamblers were a lesser team than they started.

I’m not too humble to take credit for getting things pretty much right with this team: they won the division, were a game within my prediction for record, had problems at 1B they made a trade to fix and were out quickly in the playoffs after winning the division with a record just above .500.  Hold your applause.  That aside, to review: AC gambled on a pitching, pitching, pitching strategy and came up just short.  They won the division but lost out in the playoffs to the “hot at the right time” Rounders.  Even (somewhat surprisingly) losing Tim Hudson, and Guillermo Mota—all major parts of AC’s success story last season--this team looks to be the one to beat in the North.  While the division is ripe with ace pitching, only the Gamblers with a full year of Barfield and Bagwell in the offering look to have a top shelf offense. 

Offense:

It looked better on paper than it played on the field.  The Gamblers offense wasn’t much better than the Flyers and was the least potent of any playoff offense.  This despite Bagwell and Vladdy putting up 100 RBI seasons, two hitting catchers in Posada and Ramon Hernandez and the midseason callup of the only guy to put much pressure on Mike Rivera for ROY, Josh Barfield (Jesse’s young ‘un).  Mostly, the problem was weak hitting infielders, a problem AC hopes they’ve fixed with Jimenez, Barfield and Edgardo Alfonso now the guys to the right of Ryan Klesko.  AC can little afford many injuries as their bench sucked last year and will this year, too.  If anything, this offense got a bit better with more Barfield and possibly Darin Erstad.

Pitching:

What this team can do is pitch.  Along with Ireland, AC was the only team to average less than 4 runs given up per game and they did it with a sterling starting rotation.  Four of the five stars from that rotation-Morris, Byrd, Schmidt and Piniero—are back, with the (big time) loss being Tim Hudson, who is replaced in the rotation by Freddy Garcia who got hit like a prison bitch in spring training.  Garcia may not be able to hold down the spot in the rotation, which could give ROY pitcher Dennis Tankersly a shot at starting, but that would take one more good arm out of a bullpen that is already suspect.  Paul Shuey may be the best reliever in SLB, but with Rhodes as a decent lefty compliment, he’s pretty alone in the pen. 

Man on the Spot:

Has to be Freddy Garcia.  It’s too much to ask him to replace Tim Hudson, but if he has a 7.00 ERA like he did in the spring it’s Goat time, baby.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Were surprisingly docile, especially in letting Tim Hudson go even though they had him protected.  Hudson wasn’t worth $11mil but Freddy Garcia was worth 5?  Hmmm.  Also let Mota go, which may be a mistake. 

Last season the Crunch were regarded for their excellent pitching, but in the end, that staff was too taxed to keep up and ended up slumping their way to 4th place in the division in September. All five starters had 180+ innings, showing the workhorse mentality of pitching coach Sandy Koufax, but players like Beckett and Webb just pooped out after the long season. This year the players return with a new sense of optimism, with a wide open division there's for the taking. My pick of Bedford to win the division isn't much more than pulling a name out of a hat, but considering the makeup of the other North Division teams, it's as likely for the Crunch to win as anyone.

Offense:

For some reason, this lineup just doesn't perform the way you'd expect, especially considering the cozy dimensions of NEFAC park. With huge sluggers like Griffey, Gonzalez, Sosa and Ortiz in the lineup, you wouldn't be surprised to see multiple players with 100+ RBI, but that wasn't the case last year. The team should hit for good average, so it's just a matter of getting the run production up. I think it's likely that one of these outfielders is going to step it up, and if so, the offense should be good enough to support this fine pitching staff. Do well in the home field, and the rest should take care of itself. 

Pitching:

Josh Beckett looked untouchable for four months of the season in '04, but looked like a batting practice pitcher the final two. Unreported injury? Who knows, but the guy has unbelievable stuff and could contend for a Cy Young if he can maintain his performance throughout the year. Rich Harden is an underrated thrower as well. One big question is whether or not Brandon Webb can convert his stats into wins, as he managed just a 9-15 record despite leading the staff in quality starts last year. Can Koufax work his magic on Joe Mays (who had a rough go of it in Atlanta last year)? Can the no-name bullpen pull together and hold leads for this rotation? Soriano, who was picked up in a late spring trade with Ellas, had a dazzling spring and could be a real surprise in the closer role.

Man on the Spot:

Brandon Webb has been put above both Harden and Joe Nathan in the rotation; two guys who had better seasons in '04. He needs to show that he has the moxie to win the close games out there. A good year from Webb could translate into a post season berth.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

The Crunch ended up picking up a bucket of spare parts, but no real difference makers. Shannon Stewart and Ramon Hernandez are in the opening day lineups, but neither is an all star, and the other pick ups are in the pen or on the bench. The team ended up signing a ridiculous amount of outfielders, leaving them with a glut in the minors and on the bench. Could probably afford to not keep Hentgen.

The New York media can be harsh, but the second guessing about Richard Gin’s moves last season must be in a league of its own.  The Crunch crashed.  Choked.  Blew a lead and spun out--a process accelerated by the questionable move to trade young arms Kris Benson and Jesus Colome for Tom Glavine and Mike Remlinger who had ERAs well above the team average.  As Josh Beckett melted down, Gin benched Sammy Sosa and refused to trade him, leading to a Goat award and cries of “Why?” from the Bedford faithful.  Can Gin right the ship and help Bedford’s suffering fans keep the faith?  The pitching staff is still there, the OF is still Stewart, Juan Gone and Griffey, but I can’t predict this team will beat out Atlantic City nor can I rule out another messy self-destruction midseason.  Bedford hopes to avoid the injury bug and get the offense to “click” but as the Army says, “Hope is not a plan.” 

Offense:

Some of the fecklessness of Bedford’s offense has to be blamed on New Ebbets Field and Ampitheater Complex at the Historic Brooklyn Navy Yard, which, inexplicably, seems to be a dead ball park.  But, with an OF of Sosa, Griffey, and Juan Gone hitting behind Vidro and Chavez, you’d have thunk better things would happen.  Sosa’s season pretty much sums it up as he garnered the first Goat of the Year award in hitting a pathetic .227, eventually landing him on the bench.  Richard Gin refused to trade, him, though, so he’s got another year to prove he’s worth 7.5 million bucks or to be traded to some team willing to give him a chance to redeem himself.  If they can stay healthy, this should be an offense that is good enough to at least give Bedford a chance at the division title, but you might want Gin to pull the trigger on a trade if they can’t seem to get the “chemistry” thing again.

Pitching:

At the midpoint of last season, there was nothing but raves for this staff and then the wheels came off.  It still looks like they are a top shelf bunch and will be for a decade or more, but the air of superiority has worn off.  Josh Beckett was supposed to lead this young staff, but he melted down in the second half and lesser known Joe Nathan and Rich Harden became the team’s top starters ERA-wise.  Brandon Webb seemed to suffer the most from the offensive inconsistency of the team as he lost 15 games despite a respectable 4.00 ERA.  Webb did get hit at a .292 clip, though, so Tom Seaver he’s not.  The real concern with the pitching on Bedford is the bullpen which was savaged by free agency and retirements.  Grimsley and Sauerbeck anchored the pen and both are gone.  The Crunch picked up Rafael Soriano from the Evzones by shedding head case Carl Everett, but still have mostly untested or previously lousy guys taking the ball in the late innings.  I’m willing to predict that’s going to be a  big factor as we look back on the season in next year’s Heaters.

Man on the Spot:

If it was Brandon Webb last year, it’s Brandon Webb again.  The Crunch really need this guy to break through.  Nathan and Harden proved themselves and Becket should right himself, but Webb has to be better than 9-15.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Overspent for Derek Lowe but made up for that by getting Juan Gone and Chavez back fairly cheap.  Really got a deal on Ramon Hernandez who is one of the reliable offensive catchers in the league, worth way more than a mil a year.  Decided Hentgen, Karsay and Remlinger weren’t worth the effort to resign.  Probably the right call there.

Though they proved me wrong last year, I once again nominate the Dawgs as the "someone's gotta finish last" award winner in 2005. The team has an pretty formidable lineup, arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and yet enough holes to fill Blackburn, Lancashire. It's a proven fact that offense alone can't keep you winning in the long run; in fact it was proven by Cleveland themselves last year, as for every great win streak that put them close to the top, there was a losing streak that crashed them back to reality. Mike McAvoy was disturbingly idle this off season, adding just one new face to a team that needed several, so there isn't much to put your faith in here. Unlike the Crunch, no one on this team really underachieved, and unlike the Sailors, no key parts were added to improve the team's chances. The nucleus is strong, no doubt, but there is work to be done.

Offense:

This offense was merciless last year, boasting the North Division MVP Manny Ramirez, as well as a cast of other hitters whose run production was excellent. Chipper, Maggs and Giambi are all capable of 100+ RBI seasons, and all came close to (or surpassed) that mark a year ago. Even the unheralded Victor Martinez had good production for a catcher (15 HR, 50 RBI). The weakness on this team is up the middle, which is a huge problem if you believe in baseball tradition. Orlando Hudson's injury plagued year was subpar, Aaron Rowand hit a ton of solo homers, and Juan Uribe was among the worst shortstops in the league. With Hudson and Uribe back at the top of the lineup, is history doomed to repeat itself? The options are limited both off the bench and from the minors, so this is your team, folks, and any injuries could put the team in a death spiral. 

Pitching:

Ready to see a Cy Young winner from a last place team? If spring was any indication, Mark Prior is poised to defend his title well, and with any run support at all, will win 20 games hands down. That's great and all, but the Dawgs (like their division counterparts in Philly) can't ride the back of one pitcher all year long. Mike Mussina is at times brilliant, at times laughable, newcomer Chan Ho Park showed flashes of brilliance in spring training (though got shelled for the Flyers a year ago), and Jeremy Affeldt was no better. You could say that there was addition by subtraction when Wolf and Victor Zambrano were run out of town, and Jason Marquis is a serviceable starter, but overall, the rotation isn't championship quality. The bullpen retained Guardado and Gagne, but at such a cost as to prevent any other useful players from being added to the mix. 

Man on the Spot:

Mike Mussina is the key to this teams' thin chances to win this year. A comeback type season with an ERA under 4.50 could go a long way towards some sort of success, but a .500 record or worse would doom this team to the basement. 

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

The prices of Guardado and Gagne got a little ridiculous, but even more ridiculous was matching bids on both guys. The smarter move would have been to pick one, wish the other well, and use that unspent cash to upgrade a starter or one of the positions up the middle. Too much sitting on one's hands this off season.

This team did better than either Darin or I thought they could, so that’s cause for celebration.  However, individual excellence in the form of division MVP Manny Ramirez and CY winner Mark Prior didn’t propel the team to the playoffs.  That can in part be blamed on Mike McAvoy’s clay feet in the front office, letting Randy Wolf and Victor Zambrano stink it up far too long before going to the FA pool for some relief.  Given what undrafted FA’s Kenny Rogers and Chris Carpenter did, those extra starts from bad 4^th and 5^th starters probably cost CLE the 4 games they needed to catch Atlantic City and win the division.  Most of the team that was winning at the end of the year is back and there have been improvements.  You could just as easily pick this team to win it, but they have to prove they are better than AC on the field not just on paper. 

Offense:

A lackluster spring notwithstanding, this is a potent bunch.  Four Dawgs teed off for 35+ HR and Manny Ramirez had a .301/55/134 outburst.  I was baffled that McAvoy didn’t pursue Derek Jeter with more vigor in the off-season or somehow jack up the middle IF a bit, but he had other fish to fry, I guess.  In a generally sub par offensive division, the Dawgs should score plenty of runs, especially if anybody on the left side of the IF contributes, but they proved last year that a dream OF isn’t really enough to get far in this league.

Pitching:

It wouldn’t surprise me if Mark Prior wins half this team’s games.  OK, that’s a bit of hyperbole, but, really he’s so much better than the rest of the staff it’s painful.  Mike Mussina is supposed to be the veteran ace of the staff, but he had trouble getting wins last year and, a 54 to zero K/BB walk ratio not withstanding, had a rough spring.  I find it troubling that other than keeping Chan Ho Park from losing his Green Card, CLE did little in the off-season to fix this problem.  Guardado and Gagne give this team good late inning work, but middle relief is less convincing.  Cleveland could hit the trade wires, of course, but they don’t have a lot of useful spare parts to spin off.  Would they part with Mark Prior to get 3 or 4 guys they need?  Stay tuned.

Man on the Spot:

I guess I’ll pick Uribe again on the theory if I do, maybe somebody will take my advice and get a better lead off hitter.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Not much to put in the papers in Cleveland.  Carpenter gone, Park here.  Yawn.  Spent quite a bit to retain Gagne and Guardado, which may seem unwise since they don’t have the starting staff to get them the ball enough to justify a $15mil bullpen

Halifax took the "build young" approach in our initial draft, and with another year of experience under their collective belts, should see some improvement over their last place finish a year ago. The promising young hitters couldn't stay healthy last season, and the pitching was in shambles, but GM Larsen Cain hopes that some off season upgrades and some better conditioning can see the Sailors make strides this season. This team certainly isn't ready to contend yet, but they might not be far away either. Should be a very interesting team to watch this year, as they are likely to be a pain to play every time. 

Offense:

This team boasts some of the most promising hitters at just about every position. Choi, Miguel Cabrera, Redman, Soriano...truly a collection to envy. It's now a matter of them shedding the "inexperienced" tag and going out and performing. A full season from Richard Hidalgo will help, as will healthy years from Soriano and Cabrera. This lineup has potential written all over it, so they just need to go and hit. 

Pitching:

This staff had a rough go of it last year, especially when the injuries mounted and the lineup wasn't scoring. When everyone was healthy, however, this team put on a couple of impressive winning streaks, so the formula for success is there. A.J. Burnett needs to prove that his poor showing in Havana last year was just a bit of bad luck, as his fastball is among the best in baseball. Perez, Milton and Hernandez all had great springs, giving the Halifax fans some hope for improvement. Can that success pan out over a long season? Can Billy Koch keep his ERA under 8.00? Can Sauerbeck close? All questions that need answers.

Man on the Spot:

I'll say A.J. Burnett. This team desperately needs an ace pitcher, and Burnett's stuff is good enough to be that guy. He just needs to go out there and pitch like he is capable of.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Didn't land a big fish, but may have picked up some good parts to help out. Burnett is the potential best of the bunch, but time will tell if he was worth the investment. Not a bad auction, and considering the amount of money the team had to spend, about right. If the team shows signs of contending in 2006, however, Cain has step it up and get some all stars in here.

They won one more game than I predicted so call them overachievers?  Not exactly.  They still came in last and lost $4mil in doing so.  But, don’t be so glum, I think this team will climb out of the cellar soon and may be able to reach the playoffs in a couple years as the staffs in AC and Bedford start reaching free agency.  I may be overly optimistic picking this team for 3^rd, but get a full season out of Choi and Alfonso Soriano, plus Hidalgo on for the whole year, also add in some better pitching from Milton, Burnett and Runelvys and it’s not so nutty.  If Fossum, Burnett or Odalis Perez start off badly, Larsen Cain shouldn’t wait forever to pull the trigger on a trade, however.  

Offense:

Somehow, I seem to think these guys are better than they are, which is somewhere in the bottom 5 of the league.  If anybody is going to shock the league, though, it’s Halifax and this offense will have to do the shocking.  Look at what they’ve got: The guy who led the franchise in HR , Choi comes up after hitting an obscene 35 HR in 76 AAA games, Soriano is back at second, Miguel Cabrera is the best young 3B in the league, Renteria is added to up the contact hiting and Andruw Jones and Richard Hidalgo are very talented OF ready to break out.  But can they put it together?  I kind of hope so, this is a team you wanna root for.

Pitching:

Very hard to read.  Eric Milton had a rough year going 5-14, but OBA was only .250, so he could be much better.  Runelvys has had great and awful starts in alteration, so he could have a 3.75 ERA or get whooped.  Burnett struggled in Havana, but that place is a launching pad.  Odalis Perez and Casey Fossum are still figuring out their stuff but are promising lefties.  Anything could happen.  I don’t like the looks of the bullpen one bit.  It has some guys with starters’ endurance, but they’ve had their struggles when they were starting.  Is Carlos Hernandez a reliable set up man?  Was Billy Koch just in a funk last year?  Tough questions.

Man on the Spot:

I’m going to say Runelvys Hernandez…just ‘cause I like saying Runelvys.  But really, he is the “future” of this staff if he can put it together this year and he had a fantastic spring.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Given a cap hit from coming in last and a relatively young team that sent few players packing, Halifax had modest plans for the auction.  Scott Sauerbeck becomes the new closer after intense bidding.  They resigned key guys and decided to give Burnett and Koch chances to re-acquit themselves as major league talent.  Maybe their best move was scarfing up promising young pitcher Ben Sheets who Atlanta (of all teams) inexplicably decided to cut. 

The Phynatics were one of the several teams that went through the first place carousel last season, ultimately finishing 4 games short of the prize. It was a tumultuous off season as 18 players filed for free agency, leaving GM Eric Etrain with a load of positions to fill with limited resources. Then, after paying through the nose to keep Pedro Martinez, a lot of clever bidding was required to get the 40 man roster back intact. Surprisingly, the team that returns for 2005 is very similar to the one that finished 2004, so we can only assume that the team will perform at about the same level. An underachieving lineup combined with a lackluster pitching staff (after Pedro) means this squad is likely to finish at or around .500 once again. Hopefully the team can concentrate their resources this year towards improving the staff to give Martinez someone else to lean on.

Offense:

It's one of those "great on paper" lineups that falls a bit short of expectations. Walker and Green had fine years in '04, but Walker isn't getting any younger. The team has finally settled on Konerko at first after an unceremonious buy out of Mo Vaughn's contract. The loss of Kendall and Jeter should not be overlooked as both played above average for their position. There are just too many players being relied on to produce who didn't produce last year; Jerry Hairston as your full time leadoff man, Giambi "The Lesser" in left and Aramis Ramirez at third all had less that dazzling campaigns a year ago. A lift from Konerko or newcomer Mike Lieberthal would be just what this lineup needs. 

Pitching:

The Philly staff is very similar to the rotation in Cleveland, where you have a proven stud pitching on opening day, followed by a bucket of question marks. Pedro Martinez will, if healthy, give you 20 wins. But then what? Hampton, Sasaki, Astacio....all were at times great, at times horrid, and none showed the kind of stability you want to see out of a #2 starter. Sasaki was converted from a closer, meaning his endurance isn't exactly up to snuff to go a full season. Etrain has to hope that on these guys' bad days the offense will take up the slack. A paperwork debacle in the commissioner's office left the team without Billy Wagner and Octavio Dotel, meaning the bullpen is a bit suspect. Keith Foulke will have a lot of pressure to close down games.

Man on the Spot:

Paul Konerko is batting cleanup for a team that desperately needs to score runs on a consistent basis. Jeremy Giambi isn't exactly going to provide great protection in the lineup, so Paul has that much more pressure to not leave Green and Walker on base.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Ah yes, the first great "second guessing" of SLB Free Agent Auction history. "Would you pay $16.25 million a year for Pedro Martinez?" Philly wanted to keep him enough to pay him just that, despite all the holes on the roster that still stared them in the face. There is no doubt that Pedro is a top 5 pitcher in the league, but is he worth around $800,000 per win? And is keeping him worth losing Kendall and Jeter? Nay Sayers would say that that cash could have gone to 2 or 3 players instead of 1, but Etrain may have the last laugh if his team makes the playoffs.

OK, I admit, I blew it in predicting this team to finish last in 2004.  Of all my prognostications, that one was the worst.  That said, having been wrong on this team once isn’t going to prevent me from being pessimistic about them for the upcoming season or snide about Eric Etrain’s “give Pedro anything he wants” off season checkbook strategy.  When I saw Jerry Hairston is leading off and the bullpen is 5 guys who all have high suckitude potential, I knew I had to pick this team last again, much as I may live to regret it.  One thing this team better pray doesn’t happen is they somehow finish last while Pedro manages to win the Cy Young Award.  He’ll be half the team salary one day. 

Offense:

Earl Weaver, patron saint of the 3 run homer, would love this offense.  I’m not sure I do.  But with Jeromy Burnitz to keep Humdley, Konerko, Vinny Castilla and Shawn Green happy, we should see a lot of swinging from the heels in Philly.  There’s not much in the way of good table setting speed going on here,  but if they can hit 280+ HR it may not matter if they only bat .260.   Hariston, Durham and Lieberthal could be the kind of up the middle automatic outs that make for a last place team and Konerko and Aramis Ramirez have yet to prove they can hit.  That’s 5 guys who all fail to impress me that this team can hit with the rest of the league.

Pitching:

A lot like Cleveland, just more expensive.  Pedro, yeah, we know will smoke people (and, bless Eric Etrain, he loves the fans so much he went to a 4 man rotation in ST giving Pedro 60 innings before the season starts), but beyond that, it’s iffy.  Sasaki actually did very well once converted to a starter and could win a lot if the bullpen doesn’t blow his games since he can only go 6 innings or so.  Astacio will do well if he gets enough run support as will Hampton (who may not stick it out the whole season).  Padilla is the most suspect, but he’s a 5^th starter, so, there ya be.

Man on the Spot:

I don’t think Paul Konerko is a legitimate clean up hitter and given the talent glut at 1B, I’m betting Etrain wises up and finds a better option there before this year’s up.  Anybody got Prince Fielder’s number?

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Well, there’s the Pedro thing, then there’s the rest of the auction.  Darin and I speculated there was no way this team could afford to keep Pedro, but we got that wrong (especially me who had the winning bid on him).  Only time will tell if he was worth it.  Computer glitches prevented Wagner and Dotel from being in Philly, which is probably a matter of divine intervention since that really would have put the screws to management to even fill the roster.  Generally, I think Etrain did a nice job filling out the rest of the squad with the cash he had left, though he did overbid quite a bit on Williamson.  So it goes.

Well, the Flyers were the text book definition of "initial draft gone bad." Though a few eyebrows were raised when GM Jim Masters took two center fielders to begin his team, it was hard to argue with many of the other picks (Loaiza, Radke, Kearns, Castillo, etc.). Unfortunately, very few of the players actually played to expectations, landing Masters in a terrible situation that really didn't get dealt with until the off season. Even now management is hoping that the Comeback Player of the Year comes from this team (and that it's a close race with 4 or 5 teammates) or else it could be the same last place road. And believe me, no team needs the cap hit two years running.

Offense:

Let's just lay it out there: this was the worst offense in the league last year. Last in runs scored, homers and RBI, and bottom three in doubles, walks, and stolen bases. 54 RBI led a team that hit .254 and struck out 1100+ times. Can't get much worse that that. The team has speed, as evidenced by Pierre's 48 steals, but lacks power and plate discipline in run scoring opportunities. And with absolutely no new faces in the lineup, how can you expect anything different? Don't read too much into spring training. 

Pitching:

Although I'm pessimistic about the offense improving, I will go out on a limb and say that the pitching staff will turn it around this year. There was really no reason that Millwood was a stand alone on this staff, and so I expect Radke and/or Loaiza to step it up and have a good season. Randy Wolf is an iffy off season acquisition after sucking up the joint in Cleveland. Dreifort just needs run support, which is no guarantee on this team. One saving grace of this team could be that they have one of the best bullpens in the league, especially after adding Mike Fetters to middle relief. If the starters can put in 6 solid innings, the team has a chance.

Man on the Spot:

Brad Radke has been given the opening day start, meaning Masters liked enough of what he saw this spring (3-1, 3.74) to bump Millwood down to #2. Could cause sour grapes from Millwood, but more importantly, Radke now has to face off against the Priors and Pedros of the league. Can he face the heat?

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Not good, in this writer's opinion. Atlanta had a good chunk of cash to spend, but consistently sent in low-ball offers that didn't make it to the second round of bidding. As a result, the team headed into the final bidding groups without a new face on the roster. Maybe this year Masters will pony up the cash to really make a solid offer on a front line player, because in retrospect, how good would Tim Hudson or Brian Giles have looked in a Flyer uniform?

Let’s get it out of the way:  We told you so.  Atlanta was the only team to lose 100 games and, appallingly, was even worse than I expected.  So, it’s on to season two.  Are the Flyers ready to move out of the basement and vindicate a forward thinking draft strategy?  My guess is: no.  There is hope in the pitching staff with Millwood returning, rookie Zach Greinke a possible addition later in the year and the hope that Radke and Loaiza simply had off years.  But this is still an anemic offense by league standards.  When Morgan Ensberg is your source of power, you need some help.  The Flyers didn’t sufficiently (or couldn’t with their budget) address this in the off-season and it makes it hard to imagine this year gets them out of the cellar.  They do have another top Ammy pick coming, though…

Offense:

The good news is, fans in Atlanta won’t have to wave goodbye to players they’ve become attached to.  The bad news is, the guys still look like a collection of number 8 hitters from other teams.  Power is seriously lacking.  Bob Fick (eesh) led the team with 20 HRs—for the sake of contrast, everybody on Ellas save Kenny Lofton had more.  Atlanta, I think unwisely, declined to pursue some of the power hitting FA like Sexson, Giles, and Palmiero in the off season, and thus are stuck with trying to manufacture runs again.  On the plus side, the offense probably gets better simply because the youngsters are improving, so Atlanta may be able to score 700 runs this season, which could make them competitive, if they could pitch well.

Pitching:

Which they can’t.  Or at least they didn’t.  The league’s ERA’s were pretty stable, with only 2 teams below a team ERA of 4.00 and only one team above 5.00.  Guess who the one team was?  I’d be shocked if Atlanta’s ERA is 5.40 again, but the Flyers went out of their way to get some of these guys back (sort of like Enron giving million dollar retention bonuses to retain the execs that bankrupted the company) and given that, only modest improvement seems likely.  However, the Flyers pitched well in Spring Training, for what that’s worth, especially Radke and Loaiza, both of whom could be Comeback candidates.  The bullpen actually was given a big boost by adding veteran middle relievers Turk Wendell and Mike Fetters.  If they can get the pen leads or have some games decided there, this could be one of the few advantages ATL has.

Man on the Spot:

I think Radke.  A 1-7 season from him was really bad, despite being on a team where run support can be scarce.  Reality says this team isn’t going to win 90 games, but they can be closer to .500 if Radke is, too.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

There’s no reason to belabor the point, but sometimes I just don’t know what goes through Jim’s head.  Atlanta had a lot of cash to try to shake things up after a miserable season, but they failed to land an “impact” player and overbid egregiously on some guys they re-signed (like Dreifort and Alou).  Arguably the worst move of the off season was Atlanta throwing 10mil at Randy Wolf, about 3 times what anybody else thought he was worth.  On the other hand, I think Masters did a good job fixing his bullpen, which was in his budget to do and could really make a difference in the W/L record despite it being an unglamorous sort of enterprise.

At the All Star break last season, the Diablos were sitting in first and looked to be cruising towards the playoffs. But as the season wore on, the pitching staff couldn't hold up, and the offense imploded, leaving the team in fourth place and asking "what just happened?" El Presidente wasn't amused, and has completely overhauled his front office and coaching staff in hopes of a quick rise to power in 2005. The pitching is certainly improved, but this offense poses a lot of questions that have potentially unpleasant answers. This is a tough team to call, as some career years could land them a division title, while an injury or two could see them back in the top three picks of the amateur draft.

Offense:

You've heard of too many chiefs, not enough indians? This team has too many leadoff men, not enough bashers. We've seen other teams try the contact/speed formula and fail, so why do we think it can work in Havana? Well I'm not sure it can. The team lost the Big Hurt to retirement and Giles to division rival Tennessee in the auction, leaving Mike Lowell as the biggest bat in the lineup. Not exactly filling me with confidence. A great rookie year from Jeremy Reed could go a long way towards helping this lineup, and if Cliff Floyd can put up numbers full time like he did off the bench a year ago, then who knows? Still, Reyes, Alomar and Podsednik all ought to be batting first, but only one can, leaving some odd players in odd slots in the lineup.

Pitching:

This pitching staff was a disaster last year. Scouts were fired after an initial draft that landed such bombs as Mark Buehrle, matt Clement and Derek Lowe. Through trades and free agency, however, GM Darin Keesing has swiftly rectified the situation, turning pitching into this team's potential strength. Kerry Wood was clearly not ace material, and has now dropped all the way to #4 in the rotation; a credit to the new faces on the staff. Byung-Hyun Kim is the new #1 starter, and with Maddux and Santana as 2 and 3, the front end of the rotation has been completely replaced since the All Star break last year. John Patterson was a huge surprise last year, and a strong spring shows he is ready to pitch well again. The bullpen did very well last year, though Troy Percival's save total wasn't as high as you'd like. The team would like to replace Mantei at some point, but otherwise, the pen is young and strong.

Man on the Spot:

So many to choose from! I'll go with Maddux, because despite a good record with Vegas last year, he gave up a lot of home runs and had a high ERA (both of which could inflate under Havana's more than favorable hitting conditions). He was almost a $6 million/year gamble that can't crap out.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Havana had money to spend, and ended up having the shell out some bucks to get their few key guys. Team ownership was shocked that Kim's price got as high as it did, but at the time, the team's pitching scenario was grim, so their hand was forced and the bid was matched. Maddux was a risk, especially for 3 years, but could be the difference if his year is good. Not matching the bid on Giles was a calculated risk; one that could backfire since division rival Tennessee landed him.

As bad as Bedford’s meltdown was, the Cubans had to do them one better.  You can’t really blame it too much on Keesing, though, since he went out and got Byung Kim figuring his team needed only one more good starter to head into the playoffs at about the midseason point where the Diablos were ranked 1^st in the power rankings.  Then all hell broke loose and everything that seemed too good to be true (like batting champ Robbie Alomar) was.  Keesing (or Castro) remains convinced that the needed fix was in the pitching department so Johan Santana and Greg Maddux have been acquired to go with Wood and Kim (who got a 925% raise) while the offense has been mostly left as is with the major change being rookie Jeremy Reed winning a job away from Ichiro, who was promptly sent packing.  Still, maybe I’m putting too much faith in Santana, but I think these moves put Havana over the top as I think guys like Peavy, Hanrahan and Meche all dragging other teams down gives the Diablos a real chance.  If anything, they may need to find a power hitter sometime in the season, but that seems a workable trade. 

Offense:

Las Vegas proved you don’t need anybody to hit 40 HR, let alone 50 to win, you just need there to be no easy outs.  Havana is cutting it thin on some of these guys, though.  Reyes surprised last year, hitting much better than anticipated, but Keesing is really upping the pressure by making him the lead off hitter.  That could go bust badly.  Scotty Posednik still hasn’t proven he can hit and he may be on a short leash if Keesing decides to find another power hitter among the league’s numerous OF sluggers.  Jeremy Reed will have ample opportunity to put up the numbers needed to win ROY.  Erubiel Durazo could turn out to be the bargain of the year as Havana only had to pony up $600K to get him to sign.  They really need Alomar and Pudge to continue to provide crucial production out of the C and 2B spots.

Pitching:

Pretend Spring Training didn’t happen and the Diablos would like you to focus on the names Maddux, Wood and the ERAs from last year of Kim and Santana which should spell a staff as good as anybody in the division.  At the least, please forget the Clement, Ashby, Burnett fiascos (oh, yeah, Mulholland, too) and think positive that this staff can carry the team to victory despite a shaky pen and no MVP type players in the offense.  Just maybe they will.  A lot rides on Maddux really being Maddux and Patterson not getting shelled.  You could also wonder if Kim’s ERA last year was a fluke, but if he sucks, that’s probably all she wrote for this team.  Percival is lights out in the 9^th if Havana is getting him the ball often enough.

Man on the Spot:

Greg Maddux may not ride out all of his 3-year deal, but Havana is betting a lot (to the tune of almost $6mil a year) that a guy who got hit for an OSLG of .517 will repeat his 16 win performance of last year.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Havana was in panic mode on pitching and had to resign Kim at all costs, though he’s probably getting what he’s actually worth now, and also throwing what seems like a helluva lot of cash ($17.25mil) at Greg Maddux after a season where he gave up 43 HR.  They picked up Durazo for next to nothing and also snagged BJ Ryan who helped them trade for Santana, both smooth moves.

The Rounders were the unlikeliest of the four playoff teams to win it all, but that means it shouldn't have surprised anyone that they walked away with the trophy. It seemed even less likely at the All Star break, when Albert Pujols was barely hitting his weight, Roy Halladay was getting shelled, and the team was on pace for a .500 season. But GM Andy McDonald pulled through, and then had a helluva good time spending his new found cap money in the auction, bolstering what has already proved to be a championship roster. If the additions can balance out the subtractions, look for this team once again to play in October.

Offense:

It took half a season to get the right people on the field last year, but now the Rounders look like they have their optimal lineup on the field. Adam Everett was a phenom at the leadoff spot, and Garrett Anderson was one of the most underrated outfielders in the game. JD Drew was a nice pickup in the auction, replacing the retired Biggio. Drew didn't play to his potential in London last year, so he could be a big lift. The biggest question is whether or not Albert Pujols can play like we know he's supposed to. Although his numbers ended up pretty good by season's end (.292, 38, 102), we all know that McDonald was expecting MVP performance from his first pick in the initial draft. Management seems to have faith in him, as even after a shaky spring he's right in there at the cleanup spot. The only obvious hole in the order is at catcher, where McDonald has to patch things up waiting for Mike Matheny to heal from his fractured neck of a year ago.

Pitching:

Landed a big fish in Tim Hudson this off season, and then successfully matched the bid on Halladay. Those two, added to Kyle "why did we all pass on this guy?" Lohse makes for a mean top 3 in the rotation. Kevin Brown needs to play better to justify his $7 million a year, and Jake Peavy needs to shake off a poor showing in a call up last summer. With Al Leiter and Greg Maddux gone, is the staff really better? Hudson needs to win 18-20 to make that case. The bullpen is just great, especially late, where you have the luxury of two closers setting up for your closer. Appier was a cheap pickup who can go long relief or spot start if Peavy does poorly.

Man on the Spot:

I'll go with Brown, who has more pressure than Hudson to perform. Brown won 13 games, but that was with an ERA in the mid-5.00 range, and another year like that could be disaster.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Vegas played the auction like a champ, writing the big checks for the guys they wanted, and then sifting through the remains for some potential bargains. There was no doubt that the team would match offers on Halladay and Nen, and then landed the big fish in Hudson. Drew cost just $4 mil, Appier just $1 mil, and Remlinger a paltry $700k. Isringhausen's $15.75 million contract was a bit luxurious, but hand it to the champs to make sure they would compete again.

Sort of like the LA Lakers, the Rounders coasted in spring training last year and at the start of the season seemingly knowing what they could do once the games that count got played.  They rode Al Leiter and Kyle Lohse to a title and now look to defend backed up by a wad of cash to lure the best free agents.  I don’t think they can do it, though, as I think the Diablos will find a way to keep them from having a chance to play again in October.  Of course, I underestimated this team last year, too. 

Offense:

From the standpoint of runs scored, this was the best offense in the league, despite the hype around Ellas, Havana and Ireland.  How’d they do it?  Team effort.  Only C LoDuca hit below .270 among starters and 4 guys hit 30 HR or more.  Add it up and they plated 900 guys over the season.  They could be able to repeat that feat since the main loss, Craig Biggio, has been effectively replaced by JD Drew.  I’m not sold on Blalock and Everett, but Division Player of the Year Matsui, Tejada and Pujols are what drives the bus here and they are going to have the pedal to the metal all year long.  Matsui had to be the best bargain in the league last year with a punishing .351/31/101 season all for $500,000.

Pitching:

It wasn’t really the team strength last year and it’s still suspect even with Tim Hudson being the big off-season pick up.  Brown and Maddux both won with big ERAs and I’m not sure Brown won’t have less luck this year.  Jake Peavey could be a real horror show.  Lidle and Appier are terrible in long relief, though if you can get to the 7^th or 8^th inning, Nen, Isringhausen and Smoltz are as good as anybody for holding a tight lead.  Al Leiter was probably the playoff MVP for this team and without him, I don’t think they can repeat or even get back to the post season.

Man on the Spot:

I have to go with Lohse.  He seemed on his way to an improbable Cy Young last year until the bottom fell out in the last month of the season.  If he picks up in that rut it could be a rough year all around, but if he wins 19 games or so again, he, Halladay and Hudson can take this team all the way again.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Vegas had cash to burn thanks to the World Series bonus and used it outbid on pitching mostly, with Hudson and Isringhausen joining the team  Hudson they got for a reasonable price, actually, compared to what Schilling and Pedro fetched.  They still have some cash to deal with their own FA situation in the off-season and didn’t really go crazy given the temptations.

This team gave us quite an adventure last season, as they rose from the dead more times than Freddy and Jason combined, ultimately ending up in second place. But what's the real story? Another cold start could be the end before the season even starts, but a good start could go a long way towards a possible division title. I've picked them fourth simply because I think three other teams have more talent, but all the talent in the world doesn't win you a title....Ireland can attest to that.

Offense:

Needs to improve to give the team a chance. Though Jeter and Loretta are nice upgrades up the middle, it probably won't be enough to help this team over the long haul. Nevin and Salmon both had great years in 2004, but after that, the run production dropped sharply. Leading off with Burroughs is a quirky move, especially since Jeter had nearly 50 steals a year ago, but we won't question it if it works. Huff and Hall look like guys who should play better. 

Pitching:

Could be their strength, could be their weakness. Tough to tell. Mulder and Miller should be two terrific pitchers in the rotation, but both struggled to keep their records above .500 last year (granted the run support was piss poor). GM Richard Vohs seems to be staking a lot on spring training performances, as how else can you explain handing the ball to Denny Neagle on opening day? Picking up Guillermo Mota in the auction was a very important move in wake of Mariano Rivera's off season surgery. This is actually one of the better pens in the division.

Man on the Spot:

I'll go with Denny Neagle here. He didn't show much a year ago (6-8, 5.73) so the Sabers are banking a lot on a turn around this season. There isn't much pitching depth in this organization, so failure by Denny could have serious repercussions.  

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Quietly added some good players in Jeter, Mota and Farnsworth, and retained guys like Tim Salmon for cheap. Good auction overall.

I don’t think there’s much arguing that this team got better in the off season, I’m just not sure if they got “better enough.”  Savannah was a very streaky team last year, showing they could beat anybody, but also could beat themselves with mistake ridden play.  The pitching underachieved, so they could easily be in the hunt for the division title this year, but for now, I think Las Vegas and Havana are more complete ballclubs. 

Offense:

It would seem they are going to be better with Jeter and Loretta replacing Spivey/Aurillia/Walker.  Still, it’s not a real bash their heads in offense as they’ll have to get good years out of Sean Burroughs and Phil Nevin along with hoping Mark Kotsay really can hit .339 holding down the #3 spot.  Somehow, I’m not buying it and I see too many guys hitting .260 and not enough hitting .300 for this to work.

Pitching:

I wanna say this is the best staff in the division, but Miller, Mulder and Escobar all disappointed last year barely adding up to an above .500 record collectively.  Somehow Meche and Neagle are considered the 1-2 starters despite both giving up five and a half runs a game last year.  I do feel this is now the best bullpen in the league, though, as Mota and Farnsworth join K-Rod and Marte to add up to a very good set of options when the call goes out in the late innings.  

Man on the Spot:

Denny Neagle, despite a 6-8/5.73 season last year gets the opening day start.  Sure he’s worthy of being in the rotation but how are Mulder, Miller and Escobar going to feel about his being deemed the “ace” of the staff?

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

The Sabers may have been the shrewdest players in the off season, stealing Jeter with a $4.25mil/year deal and making huge bullpen advances by adding Mota and Farnsworth.  They still have cash to burn, but are probably trying to hoard it up to resign their pitchers after this year.

This team sorta scares me. Though the team is mostly back from last season, it's a tough team to make any predictions on, as we haven't really seen what they can do over a full season. The baseball gods did not smile upon the Thunder in '04 as the Disabled List started looking longer than the opening day lineup, so what can we expect from this team if the health concerns are no longer a worry? Hard to say, but something tells me that this offense is going to punish people this year.

Offense:

Could be the best offense in the league, we just don't know it. The hitters took the brunt of the injury plague last year, as Abreu, Nomar and Lopez all missed big chunks of the year. Now you mix in Brian Giles and Mike Sweeney and you have something awfully scary staring back at you. Not a hole in the entire lineup, one that expects to turn out at least 3 or 4 all stars before it's all said and done. The team would like to see better years out of Scott Rolen and Nomar Garciaparra, both of whom underachieved even in their limited at bats a year ago. 

Pitching:

Coming into camp, this team looked like it had just two pitchers worth a damn for the starting rotation. But Jennings, Eaton and Perez all shined in March, which changes my outlook entirely. Surprisingly, rookie Joel Hanrahan won the starting job from Perez, despite taking the entire spring off. Sounds like shady business, but expect Perez to see some starts if Hanrahan biffs early. The pen could be an issue, especially if Hawkins ends up with 16 decisions again.

Man on the Spot:

Oh, let's say anyone who is in the starting rotation whose last name doesn't start with 'Z'.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Scored big time when they outbid the Diablos for Brian Giles, as it improved the lineup at the expense of a division foe. Retained Scott Rolen for a pay cut and landed Mike Sweeney for a paltry $1 mil/year. Nice work.

I stand behind my 90-72 prediction for this team from last year.  If they hadn’t spent the season running into walls and blowing their arms out, I still think the Thunder were the best team in that division.  On the plus side, they start out healthy and you can’t imagine they could have the same kinds of injuries 2 years in a row, but on the minus side, Las Vegas is flush with cash thanks to the World Series title and will just try to buy a division championship this time around.  Tennessee is in much the same boat as Ellas, if their new pitchers can do the job, the offense can take them far, if not, there may be little they can do by way of fixing things. 

Offense:

When you have a guy (Abreu) who could be in the 50/50 club leading off, you must have a mean offense.  That Tennessee sure has.  With the Giles brothers re-united and good production out of SS and C (Nomah and Javy Lopez) there is an argument to be made this is the best offense in the league.  That’s if they all are on the field at the same time.  Mike Sweeney is kind of a second rate 1B, but that’s not much to criticize is it?  If Abreu bats lead off all year, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him score 150 runs.  A guy to watch is Rolen who didn’t really play like Scott Rolen last year.  But if he ups it to 30 HRs, this will be one mean team.

Pitching:

Zito and Zambrano, when healthy, are perhaps the best 1-2 starters in the league and Zambrano might win the CY this year based on his limited innings last year.  But after the top two the drop off is humongous.  Jennings is fine for a 3^rd starter but Eaton and Hanrahan are very uncertain entities.  The bullpen is not what it once was with Hoffman and Isringhausen gone and even last year they let me down as I’d thought the Thunder had the best pen in the league.  I wouldn't be surprised to see this team have the worst ERA in the division if not the whole league.

Man on the Spot:

Joel Hanrahan is totally unknown.  He wasn’t even in camp this spring.  He and Eaton have much to prove, but he has even more to prove.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Tennessee had modest goals in the off-season and had a successful strategy, primarily stealing Giles off division rival Havana.  They got Rolen back on the cheap and snatched up undervalued players like Sweeney and Stairs.  Not going after pitching was mostly due to expectations of a healthy staff this year, but they may regret that in hindsight.

I'll start right out by saying that I'll probably live to regret this prediction, as it goes against everything I say in other team capsules. This team is more or less all offense, with huge question marks all over the pitching staff, and I constantly say that that won't win it all for you. Yet it seems that the same formula holds true for Ireland and Paris, and when it comes down to it, the Evzone offense is just better than the other two at this point. If Ellas doesn't win the division, I'm sure Tom will say I jinxed him.

Offense:

This team really has the potential to terrorize opposing staffs, especially at home. No other lineup is so precisely built around the home ballpark as the Evzones, who take every advantage of the short porch in right field with Bonds, Thome and Everett. Stealing away Preston Wilson from Ireland was huge, as he is arguably the best center fielder in the land, and in front of this lineup, could be an MVP candidate. A big question is whether a 40 year old Barry Bonds can stay healthy for another whole year, as the backup options are not pretty. Also, can ROY Mike Rivera avoid a sophomore slump? Can Jeff Kent produce 100 or more RBI? All good questions. 

Pitching:

Dodgy at best. The team has invested a lot of financial resources in Curt Schilling, who is a great but not a transcendent pitcher. Roy Oswalt needs to step up this season, especially since retirement ate up Woody Williams and Kenny Rogers. Ainsworth, Lackey and Webb are all new faces in the rotation, and all three have been at times great, at times miserable this spring. They certainly showed the goods in AAA last year, but we know what that's worth. Smartly, GM Tom Hey stockpiled some reclamation projects in Ft. Wayne should any of the young pitchers have a tough go at it. Rumor has it that John Webb, a guy who throws entirely off speed stuff, has had his run ins with new pitching coach Randy Johnson this spring. Johnson's breaking ball was 85mph at it's slowest, so it will be interesting to see how these two reconcile their pitching styles.

Man on the Spot:

Kurt Ainsworth won the 3rd starter position despite better springs from Ishii and Chacon, meaning his leash is as short as can be.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

The team was forced to overpay for Schilling when the reality of an "Oswalt and the scrubs" pitching staff set in, but the team had plenty of cash to spend. They rightly ponied up a great bid for Preston Wilson, and then went to work seeking out the bargain basement guys who might be big contributors. 

Ellas had what would have been a magical season with 99 wins and a triple crown MVP tarnished by Ireland’s 109 wins, Ireland beating them in the playoffs and Ireland’s Gary Sheffield edging out Bonds for the Batting Crown in the last couple weeks.  If you don’t think they are bitter, you don’t know the Greeks very well.  These people can hold a grudge.  Many games, it looks like this team will just homer their way to victory, but the chance to win the division and the chance to get beyond a first round exit will be totally dependent on the pitching situation which is hard to draw any conclusions about. 

Offense:

Take a team that hit a head-spinning 300 HR and upgrade with Preston Wilson and Carl Everett and you get a sense this could be something special.  When Bonds decided not to hang it up, GM Hey decided to unleash the hounds and go after every offensive upgrade he could make, which makes what was the 3^rd most prolific offense last year likely the best this year.  Rafael Furcal can get in a funk and Jeff Kent didn’t really live up to expectations, but it’s hard to imagine these guys have trouble scoring runs.  It’s scary to think, but with Wilson on board, Bonds may be able to improve on his .351/66/ 163 MVP season.  If anybody’s worth 13mil a year, that’s the guy.

Pitching:

Who knows?  You figure Schilling and Oswalt, if healthy contribute at least 15 wins apiece, then it’s totally a guess.  44 wins from last season have bid hasta la vista in one way or another and Ellas chose to go with cleaning out the farm system rather than pursue free agents.  Ainsworth, Lackey and Webb are all promising righties that the Evzones hope will mostly just keep them close so the offense can do their thing.  Ainsworth was slated to join the rotation this year anyway and he generally just throws it at hitters and hopes the defense bails him out, which isn’t always a good plan with this team which is hardly defensively a thing of beauty.  If he has an OBA of .270 or so, he’ll win more than he loses.  Same for Lackey who won a job after joining the Harry Baals last year and putting up solid numbers.  John Webb is a wild card and half, though.  The rookie flat baffled lesser hitters in AAA and the rookie league, but can a guy who throws nothing but garbage get the league’s top bats out?  The Greeks pen is pretty good, if full of no-names like Erasmo Ramirez and Kevin Walker.  Ed Yarnall is becoming a mythic figure as he rose from not being picked in the initial draft to nearly leading the league in saves despite not holding the closer’s job until about a quarter of the season was over.  He owned people in ST, so he’s out to win the Rolaids award this year.

Man on the Spot:

Somewhat obvious, but John Webb.  If Ellas can turn a guy without a fastball into a 15 game winner, they should run away with the title.  Then again, I can see the guy giving up 12 runs by the 2^nd inning.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

The Evzones threw mounds of cash at Pedro only to see Philly astonishingly resign him, which forced Hey to sign Schilling at all costs.  He probably overpaid by a good sum. Preston Wilson was seen as a must have, even if that meant no bidding on second tier SPs.  He and Bonds suck up nearly $25mil in the outfield now, alone.  That may prove unwise if the farm hands crap out.  Deep scouting of the FA pool led to a lot of bargain basement roster fillers who may turn out to be the best moves this team made in the off season. 

On paper, Ireland was clearly the best team last year, and that almost translated into the championship. They lost Game 7 of the World Series 2-1, coming within that single slim run of a trophy. But we all knew what was going to happen with this team regardless of that game's outcome, as the team was built around too many aging veterans. This team took the worst hits in the off season, but GM Tony Blake also took the most strides to try to maintain the team's level of play. While he deserves Kudos for his effort, it looks like a couple of other teams have passed him by, and now it's going to be a struggle to keep up with the Joneses.

Offense:

The team lost Gonzalez and Wilson, 2/3 of a great outfield, but did well to replace them. Todd Helton has been shifted to left field, where his booming bat might be offset a bit by limited range and shaky defense. Raffy Palmeiro slides in at first, and Carlos Lee takes over for Ventura at third. It remains to be seen if the two-headed rookie of Peralta and Crosby can make up for Larkin. All that said, the team still has Piazza, Boone and Sheffield, so there is no question the team will score runs. As many as last year? Questionable. And the team may need more runs to win with the holes in the pitching staff.

Pitching:

Bye, bye Big Unit and Clemens, who combined for 36 wins a year ago. Colon, Sabathia and El Duque remain, giving the Invaders arguably the best top 3 in the division, but then it's iffy. Matt Clement was signed for pennies in the auction and had a tremendous spring, but can you trust him after his abominable season in Havana a year ago? Pat Hentgen seemed like a shoe-in for the rotation after a good year in Bedford, but he's been relegated to middle relief in lieu of a rookie knuckleballer named Seth McClung. The pen overall isn't bad, with Braden Looper coming in to try to make up for Rolaids Reliever Billy Wagner who is now across the North Sea in Paris. 

Man on the Spot:

Vernon Wells. He started out in CF last year but lost the job to Preston Wilson after early struggles. Now it's his job alone, and the Invaders can't afford for their leadoff man to hit .220.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

They were shocked to hear that no one bid on El Duque, allowing them to sign him for a pittance. Mike Piazza is worth more than $5 million, so that's another bargain. Palmiero and Hentgen were probably overpaid for, but Ireland had a mountain of cash to spend and needed to keep their options open. Carlos Lee for $700k was a great steal. 

To no one’s great surprise Ireland laid a beating on the league and ran away with the division title.  Had they not had Ellas to keep them honest, they’d have won other divisions with nearly a month left to go.  Not really a surprise either, the league’s best team failed to come home with the title as the Rounders got the breaks in the Series.  Totally unshocking is that Ireland is not nearly as good a team as they were last year going into this one.  It seems harsh, but it appears Darin and I agree that this team is going to drop out of the playoff picture and sink to 3^rd in the Euro.  That may be wishful thinking, but Ireland has a lot to prove with two hall of fame pitchers and two superstar OF not part of the picture anymore. 

Offense:

Led by batting champ Gary Sheffield and the league’s best catcher, Mike Piazza, this is still a mean offense.  But with Luis Gonzalez and Barry Larkin retired and Preston Wilson shagging flies in Athens, this isn’t going to be the bruising gang of last season.  Replacing Barry Larkin may not be too much to ask for out of the Crosby/Peralta platoon, but Vernon Wells leading off instead of Preston Wilson is gonna hurt.  A wise move to add Viagra boy Palmiero in the off season means that Todd Helton can be moved to LF, which more or less makes up for the loss of Gonzalez.  I don’t see this offense as being as good as Paris’ or Ellas’ but it may turn out to be good enough to win the division if Colon and Sabathia step it up.

Pitching:

They were the league’s best, by far, last year, but with the top two win getters gone as well as the league’s best closer, they’re heading into this year with a ton of unanswered questions.  Can Matt Clement be rehabbed from his miserable year in Havana?  Will Seth McClung be able to get real major leaguers out?  What will Ashby and Hentgen do on this team?  Can Braden Looper replace Billy Wagner?  If the answers are yes, this team will be back in October, if not, Ireland’s day in the sun may be done.  I’m predicting a break out year for Sabathia.

Man on the Spot:

I’m going to say Vernon Wells despite the obvious choices in the rotation.  A good offense needs a good spark plug at the top and Vernon hit only .221 last year before losing his job to Preston Wilson.  He needs to at least hit .275 for this team to be firing on all cylinders.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Tony Blake showed why he was last season’s Owner of the Year with a masterful job in the FA Auction.  Things got off to a good start for IRE when they got El Duque back without any competing bids.  The Invaders had huge holes to fill and they did their best, though Clement and Hentgen aren’t likely to be Rocket and Big Unit II. 

Boy oh boy, this is a rough division to be just pretty good in. London, while hardly great, would at least have been in 3rd or 4th place in the other divisions, but in the packed Euro, they finished dead last. Life's not always fair, so now the Knights enter the season struggling to get better but with less resources to get there. It doesn't help that the Paris and Ellas got better, so it's going to take a lot of luck (or maybe a great trade or two) to put this team over the top. Some big names have come and gone already this off season, but can you really say that the team is markedly improved? London could be a sleeping giant, or it could just be sleeping.

Offense:

Above average for sure, but not overwhelming. The team made some needed upgrades at catcher (Kendall) and right field (Ichiro), so the lineup is likely to score a bit more than a year ago. The team needs A-Rod to play at an MVP level to really have a chance this year, and there are too many soft spots in the lineup (CF, 2B, 3B). Berkman can be a beast if he can stay healthy.  

Pitching:

Herein lies the fate of your London Knights. Andy Pettite is clearly among the best lefties in the game, but with Johan Santana now hurling for Castro's team, the rotation suddenly doesn't look as deep. Brad Penny is a key at the #2 spot, and Ponson needs to play like April and May (7-0) than June through September (3-14) for the team to have any chance, and Livan Hernandez better walk home with the Comeback Player trophy to boot. Dotel and Ryan were good upgrades to the pen, though it's a bit of a head-scratcher that Dotel is in middle relief instead of closing games.

Man on the Spot:

Sidney Ponson is now a #3 starter, meaning he'll face off against some pretty good pitchers around the league. Can he pull himself out of last year's terrible slump? 

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

The team didn't have a lot to spend, so they had to prioritize where they should spend their money. Landing Kendall and Dotel was great, but one would think that they could have solved their RF problem without having to trade away Johan Santana. If Aaron Boone does just about anything useful he'll be worth more than the $500k he's being paid.

London had the top pick in the draft, spent more than anybody and still wound up last.  You have to call that a bit of a disappointment.  I may have said this team had the best starting pitching in the division before they traded Johan Santana away, now, I’m not so sure.  With a much less potent offense than the other three teams in the Euro, the odds don’t look good for London.  Given that and a rough FA situation, dark days may be ahead.  If last place seems a certainty this year again, what will GM O’Hallaran do?    

Offense:

Not that this is a bad offense, just that they lack that Euro-goodness of a 1-8 solid all-around squad.  Rocco Baldelli (.258/8/30) was a bust last year and the Hinske/Boone platoon at 3B doesn’t do much for me.  I’ll say the same thing I did last year about Ichiro-if he hits .315 and plays defense like god, you can justify his lack of HR production, but if he hits .290 again, trading for him may have been a mistake (especially giving up a quality lefty starter).  The Knights need Berkman and A-Rod to stay healthy all year.

Pitching:

I have to say I deeply disagree with trading away Johan Santana as this staff went from having the best left handed starters in the league to now relying on Pettitte and hoping the “good” Penny, Ponson and Livan show up.  Brett Myers just sucks.  If Ponson pitches like he did the first half of last year and Livan throws like he did all spring, this could start to shape out well, but I don’t think either of those is a safe bet.  The pen is a good bunch with Dotel added to phenom Brad Lidge and solid Baez and Graves.  They may be busy.

Man on the Spot:

Brett Myers lost a brutal 17 games last year and London still hasn’t given up on him.  A bad start and they might.  Make that should.

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

London’s expensive initial draft priced them out of the bidding for most of the superstars, but they did well with the cash on hand in adding Jason Kendall, a major upgrade from JR House and Octavio Dotel who’s been tasked to chew up innings in middle relief.

It has to suck to have the 3rd best record in the entire league, but come in 3rd in your own division. Such is the fate of the Paris Pimpernels, who missed out on the playoffs by geography alone. Keep in mind that it took a couple of months for GM Michael Taylor to even get the best team on the field, so there is a good chance they might have out-dueled Ellas for the wildcard had the right guys played all year. Too much was put into spring numbers, meaning Dontrelle Willis and Jerome Williams didn't start while Sexson sat undrafted. Now the Pimps have their proverbial shit together, and with some upgrades to the pitching, look like a team with a great chance for the post season. 

Offense:

Really, really good. I'm going out on a limb and picking Troy Glaus to usurp Bonds for the MVP this year...that's how much I think of the offense that surrounds him. Rollins, Lee, Roberts, Mondesi, Jenkins, Sexson...all great last year and all capable of 30/90 seasons. Santiago may or may not be an upgrade over Lieberthal, but all in all, this offense is pretty damn good. With rookie phenom Dallas McPherson lurking in the shadows, it will only get better too.

Pitching:

With Javier Vasquez on the shelf until August, Taylor had to pick up Chris Carpenter to fill in, but the rest of the rotation looks solid. In his own way, Taylor always seems to get the most out of guys who lack the sex appeal of some other bigger names, and so puts forth a rotation of Lieber, Pavano, Willis and Williams. Doesn't sound good on paper, but believe you me, they will be fantastic. Well, Williams might be a question mark, as he followed up a fantastic late season callup in '04 with a dismal spring. Stealing Billy Wagner away from Ireland was a boon, allowing Borowski to slide to setup along with ex-Ellas Mike Myers. Long and middle relief are a shade worse than iffy, but that's true for most teams.

Man on the Spot:

Chris Carpenter did pretty well for Cleveland last year (4-5, 4.22), but does that add up to a #3 starter? Better than Willis? Especially after a rough spring?

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Held onto Geoff Jenkins, nabbed Billy Wagner, both good moves. $5 mil/year for Carpenter may have been cash poorly spent, especially since you're now saddled with him for 3 years. Paid a little more than they wanted for Richie Sexson as well, but that was probably a better investment. 

Paris?  We meant zee Paris, Texas…um, yee all.  Non?  Last year was a toughie for the Pimpernels as they had the 3^rd best team record-wise in the regular season, but missed the playoffs since the top two were in their division.  But those two teams were built to win now and then pay the price where Paris was built by Michael Taylor to dominate over the long haul.  The long haul starts now.  The Pimps lost little of note in the off-season while adding the Rolaids reliever Billy Wagner and a couple other useful arms.  Time to start getting used to brie and Bordeaux in the concession stands at the World Series.

Offense:

Paris likes guys who have speed but also can hit for power.  Don’t we all?  But this team is full of them.  Glaus, Jenkins, Lee, Sexson and Mondesi all hit 30 HR or more and the last two without full seasons.  In a world without Barry Bonds, Troy Glaus (.314/57/137) would be a top MVP vote getter.  The only questions here center round Brian Roberts, who may lose his job to Dallas McPherson if he can’t hit .290 again and Benito Santiago, an off season addition to shore up the perennial Taylor problems at catcher.

Pitching:

Spring Training did this team wrong last year convincing manager that Dontrelle Willis wasn’t ready to be in the rotation and Kirk Rueter was the team ace.  Neither turned out to be true and taking half a season to straighten out who should do what may have cost this team a trip to the playoffs.  Spring training again brought a skunk to the party as Jerome Williams and Chris Carpetner got the shit kicked out of them, making you worry this new rotation is all that solid. It should be, but if not Kris Benson can be moved in out of long relief or the Pimpernels can draw on the farm system where screwball guru Tsao was the pitcher of the year and Carl Sadler lurks.  Bullpen is excellent with the additions of Myers and Wagner (both poached off division mates, too, for good measure).  Few will miss Borowski closing games in Paris.

Man on the Spot:

It looks like Jerome Williams.  He went 4-0 in 8 starts last year, but had a spring that saw him post a 7.22 ERA.  Which guy is it? 

Free Agent Auction Analysis:

Paris had a pretty good war chest built up, but mostly concerned themselves with resigning FA Jenkins and Sexson.  Due to a mix up in the Commissioner’s Office (isn’t that how these things are worded?) they got Billy Wagner on the cheap.  Chris Carpenter is a gamble.  He was added last season as an undrafted free agent by Cleveland and pitched well, but that may not hold