Okay, wow, 2011 season already! Doesn't it feel like this league just started? How good is this league? The best record of any team was 91-71 or 10 games above .500. Ten measly games. And the worst was 93 losses. How can you predict a league that balanced? Hell if I know, but that’s what we’re gonna try to do anyway.  There are certainly no perfect teams, and with different owners heading off in different directions it's hard to figure any of it out. Look for this to be a record breaking season in terms of how totally wrong these predictions are.

So have fun reading these and get ready for what is sure to be an awesome eigth season. Good luck to everyone!

-- In the Lineups, rookies will be highlighted in Red --
-- In the Lineups, players acquired in the off season will be highlighted in Green --

 


North Division

Predicted Order of Finish (Darin)
Halifax Sailors 88-74
Cleveland Dawgs 87-75
Philly Phynatics 73-89
Bedford Crunch 71-91

Predicted Order of Finish (Tom)
Halifax Sailors 84-78
Cleveland Dawgs 82-80
Philly Phynatics 74-88
Bedford Crunch 70-92

 

 

Darin: We've said it before but I really think it's true: the North is the weakest division in SLB. Yes, Cleveland made it to Game 7 of the World Series last year, but even that team has turned over well over half of its roster. Halfiax looks like they are early favorites again after a productive off season, while Philly and Bedford just don't look strong enough to compete. No one here is going for the wholesale rebuild, so it will be interesting to see if moves are made by all 4 teams to compete in 2011, or if one or two drop out early and look towards the future.  Tom: With Halifax rebuilding last year, Cleveland shocked us all and ran away with the North. It isn’t going to happen that way again. Halifax re-armed and Cleveland 2011 looks nothing like Cleveland 2010. Those two teams should battle for the top spot, but 1st place in the North might mean 83 or 84 wins. Philly is rebuilding and Bedford is—well—I’m not sure what Bedford is doing. When the league grants a new realignment, you can bet there’ll be some teams eager to move into the North.

 



Key Additions: RHP Brett Myers, LF Garrett Anderson

Key Losses:  RHP Jorge Julio, RHP Joe Nathan, RHP Luis Vizcaino, RHP Ben Weber (r)

Spring Training Record: 19-19

Opening Day Payroll: $65,150,000

Stadium Name:  New Ebbets Field and Ampitheater Complex at the Historic Brooklyn Navy Yard, Presented by RPG Productions, Inc.

Stadium Model:  Milwaukee County Stadium (Grass)

Predicted Finish: Last in North (Darin) / Last in North (Tom)


Darin's Take

Overview
:

I'll be frank. This team simply doesn't impress me. A 75 win team a year ago, and now without arguably their best starter (Nathan) and best reliever (Vizcaino). Doesn't bode well, and since this offense always seems to underachieve, things just don't add up for a competitive team in Brooklyn this year. So what now? The hitters in the farm system haven't panned out yet, there is very little pitching help on the way...can this team shed enough salary to make a big splash in free agency next year? Something has to happen, as the current roster just isn't going to cut it.

Off Season Analysis:

Lost Nathan and Vizcaino, added Brett Myers and Garrett Anderson. Nathan hurts the most, as he was 12-6, 3.19 last year and lead the staff in quality starts. Also lost Jorge Julio who was pretty darn good in short relief (3.61 ERA). Brett Myers was 7-12, 4.92 in London, which could improve with Bedford's park factors, but overall, the team came out behind this off season.

Offense:

It's the same lineup that finished 9th in the league in batting and runs scored. No new faces at all. So what can you expect? More of the same in all likelihood. On paper, it's a well constructed lineup, with Ichiro at the top, Chavez and Ortiz in the middle, with solid hitting from catcher and center field. The Crunch will need better than .255 averages from Giles and Cintron this year (well, Bradley too), and could really use a year from Pena like he put up in Havana a few years back. In short, you know what you've got here, you just need to hope for some career years (or at the very least, improvements on 2010 numbers) to stay competitive.

Pitching:

This is where things get really dicey. Gone are the days of Rich Harden, Joe Nathan and friends. Here are the days of Andrew Brown, Jason Davis and Brett Myers. Jeff Weaver did lead the team in wins last year with 14; respectable for a team with a losing record. He'll likely need to add to that total this year as the di facto ace of the staff. Andrew Brown was anointed the #2 starter after a solid spring and will bear a lot of pressure if the guys behind him fail. Davis, Myers, and the mercurial William Bray round out this rotation. Bray went from a guy with some promise to a complete wash out in 2010 (7-11, 5.17). Oliver Perez is hiding in long relief and will likely see the rotation if/when one of these guys has a slow start. You may be asking why Ryan Anderson is in middle relief. Rumor has it that he's being traded after Opening Day, possibly over seas. The pen is just not good anymore. The top 3 relievers (Weber, Julio and Vizcaino) are all gone, and now you're stuck with a piecemeal hodge podge of Aaron Taylor, Jose Valverde and Chad Bradford.

Man on the Spot:

Andrew Brown. One spring does not a superstar make, and this guys was 2-9, 6.54 between starting and relief last year. Can we really expect that big a turn around from a guy who is already 30 years old? 

Tom's Take

Overview:

Bedford is certainly going to have a crack at being the worst team in SLB this year.  In the past, this team usually had great pitching numbers because they could make average pitchers into great ones thanks to home field advantage.  Nobody is going to make Jason Davis or Brett Myers great.  And that decline in pitching quality over the years in Bedford hasn’t been compensated for by improving the offense.  The offense is still average guys plus Ortiz and Chavez.  The Crunch have a lot of bad $2-3mil contracts which will expire or could be bought out.  The wise move for Bedford at this point would be to spend this year clearing the books and plan for a big auction impact at the end of this season.

Off Season Analysis:

In terms of bang for the buck, the Crunch might have had the worst off season of any team.  GM Rich Gin, for reasons unknown, sunk $5mil into Jason Davis, Casey Fossum, and Brett Myers.  They could have had Davis and Fossum for league minimum.  They got Chavez back for his going rate and kept Ramon Hernandez, but no “impact” players joined up.  Not a wise use of the checkbook in this writer’s opinion.

Offense:

The idea for the Crunch is to score runs without having to rely on the long ball.  Last year they did OK, with the fewest HR in the league, but near the middle in runs scored.  Team BA was only .264, which is lower than one built around these kinds of hitters should post.  David Ortiz was the clear team leader in 2010, the only guy with over 20 HR.  His health is paramount.  Ichiro had one of the best years of his career last season and is a perfect fit in Bedford .  Ramon Hernandez and Wily Mo Pena had subpar seasons—both need to improve greatly for this team to have any hope of competing. 

Pitching:

We’ve always pretty much said, “Anybody can pitch well in Bedford .”  Well, this season will put that to the test.  Management let Joe Nathan, a prototype Crunch pitcher leave for free agency and likewise decided not to pony up the dough for Jose Vizcaino, who had turned his career around here.  Result: a five man rotation of—at best—fourth starters and a bullpen of nobodies.  Jeff Weaver, who once got a minimum contract is the “ace.”  Andrew Brown, career 5.71 ERA is the deuce—you get the picture.  And Jose Valverde and Chad Bradford, both with ERA over 4.50, are the 8th and 9th inning guys.  How did it get this bad?  Wasn’t pitching this team’s strength?

Man on the Spot:

Andrew Brown was awful in 2010, 2-9 with a 6.54 ERA.  He’s the second best pitcher they’ve got, apparently.  If he can’t be even a .500 pitcher, which is asking a lot, this team is in trouble. 

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Left about $10 million on the table, which was bad, but could give them flexibility if they decide to get active again on the trade market. 10 free agents, with Ichiro and Pena the most likely to gain restricted status. 

Spring Training Wrap Up:

Put the starters in and they only played .500 ball.  On the bright side, the “Bedford Effect” does seem to be there for Andrew Brown and especially Jason Davis, who, truth be told, could be an above average pitcher on this team.  Jason Ray pitched his way back to AAA.

Minor League Report:

I am no longer going to predict big things for the Stingers but they will likely hit a lot of homers. Koovitz, Parraz and Avila all have major league power if they can figure out how to hit a fastball with movement. Thin in the pitching department, though Jason Ray has the makings of a stud closer.

Opening Day Lineups:

         Batting Order vs. LHP:             Batting Order vs. RHP:
         RF  Suzuki, I.                     RF  Suzuki, I.
         CF  Bradley, M.                    CF  Bradley, M.
         3B  Chavez, E.                     3B  Chavez, E.
         1B  Ortiz, D.                      1B  Ortiz, D.
         LF  Pena, W.                       LF  Pena, W.
         SS  Cintron, A.                    SS  Cintron, A.
          C  Hernandez, R.                   C  Hernandez, R.
         2B  Giles, M.                      2B  Giles, M.
          P  Pitchers Slot                   P  Pitchers Slot
 


      Starters               Long Relievers           Setup men
      R  Weaver, J.          L  Perez, O.             R  Bradford, C.
      R  Brown, A.           L  Fossum, C.
      R  Davis, J.
      R  Myers, B.           Middle Relievers         Closers
      L  Bray, W.            R  Taylor, A.            R  Valverde, J.
                             L  Anderson, R.
 

Bench:

Obviously not very useful.  Hunter and Anderson are decent pinch hitters, but all but one player is an OF, so little in the way to back up IF or deal with potential injuries there.
 
 
Right-handed Left-handed Switch-hitters
C R. Christianson
LF G. Anderson
-
LF J. Gomes
-
-
CF R. Baldelli
-
-
CF T. Hunter
-
-
RF M. Ordonez - -

-			
-		

 



Key Additions: RHP Jon Garland, RHP Brock Landers,  LHP Mike Maroth, RHP Jake Peavy, LHP Derek Thompson, RHP Adam Wainwright, C Joe Mauer, 1B Paul Konerko, 2B Orlando Hudson, 3B Miguel Cabrera, LF J.D. Drew, CF Josh Hamilton, CF Mark Kotsay

Key Losses:  RHP Don Drysden, RHP LaTroy Hawkins (r), LHP Mark Mulder, RHP Brandon Webb, C Tony Montana, 2B Jose Vidro (r), 3B Mike Lowell, LF Hideki Matsui, CF Darin Erstad, CF Andruw Jones, RF Jason Lane

Spring Training Record: 14-24

Opening Day Payroll: $65,500,000

Stadium Name:  Boneyard Field

Stadium Model:  Qualcomm Stadium (Grass)

Predicted Finish: 2nd in North (Darin) / 2nd in North (Tom)


Darin's Take

Overview
:

I would love to have been a fly on the wall during Cleveland's post-season front office meeting. I bet is went something like this:

GM: Wow guys, what a great year! We defied predictions and pushed Paris to the 9th inning of Game 7 of the World Series! We're so close to winning it all!
Owner: Close isn't good enough.
GM: You're right. F#%$ these guys, they're all fired! 

I mean seriously, who takes a World Series team and replaces 17 players on the 25 man roster? I guess it's no surprise that Mike McAvoy is in charge here, as there is never a trade he won't consider. The question, of course, is are the Dawgs in fact better now then they were a year ago? One could make that argument, but with this much turnover, it's just impossible to predict. The only things I know for sure is they are definitely better than Philly and Bedford, and we haven't seen the last trade from McAvoy.

Off Season Analysis:

Yeah, 17 new players on the active roster alone, which at this point is par for the course in Cleveland. Not exactly the most loyal organization, eh? The entire starting lineup is new, along with 80% of the starting rotation and half the bullpen. McAvoy clearly doesn't believe in the concept of team chemistry. Of course, these trades weren't made just for the hell of it, and though some big names were sent packing (notably lefties C.C. Sabathia and Mark Mulder), Cleveland took advantage of Tennessee's firesale and picked up some great bats (Cabrera, Hamilton) and two of their pitchers (Thompson and Peavy [via Havana]). You can't say he improved last year's team; he basically replaced them.

Offense:

Let's compare the lineups at the end of last season to Opening Day this year:

2010			2011
C-Montana		C-Mauer
1B-Lane			1B-Konerko
2B-Vidro		2B-Hudson
3B-Lowell		3B-Cabrera
SS-Gaston		SS-Jeter
LF-Matsui		LF-Hamilton
CF-Erstad	 	CF-Kotsay
RF-A.Jones		RF-Drew

Crazy enough, I'd say all the turnover ends up being a wash. Montana hit 40 HR which you won't see from Mauer while Cabrera will improve on Lowell's numbers. Lane was terrible last year, so Konerko is an improvement there, but Hudson is a step down from Vidro. Hamilton is great, but that much better than Matsui? Hudson, Cabrera and Mauer certainly make the team younger, so there is that.

Pitching:

Unimpressed with Sabathia's win and ERA totals, McAvoy decided to rid himself of the salary and rebuild the pitching staff. Moving him within the division was a highly questionable move, especially when you end up with two very underachieving starters in return in Garland and Wainwright. Mulder is also gone, so overall, this rotation is at least a little bit worse off than a year ago. Derek Thompson is arguably the most underrated starting pitcher in SLB as he lead Tennessee's staff year after year despite the Thunder's poor showing the standings. Jake Peavy had a great first half last year, but got rocked in August (and spring training) but he could be a good gamble. Not quite the bargain basement salary anymore, however, so he needs to make good on his 3500% raise. If Koch can keep the ball in the park, this team should be solid in late innings. 

Man on the Spot:

Peavy went from the $200,000 a year wonder boy to a well paid Opening Day starter. Time to earn your paycheck big boy.

Tom's Take

Overview:

2010 turned out to be a magical year for the Dawgs.   Halifax abdicated their spot atop the North to rebuild and the Dawgs took full advantage.  After a mid-season bitch fest, GM Mike McAvoy finally made some fine-tuning trades and set the team up for a fantastic second half run which culminated in a heartbreaking loss in game 7 of the World Series.  Now, the team is going to have to compete with a Halifax squad that has no intention of stepping aside and will have to do so with a salary cap of $60mil.  Oh, did I mention the entire starting lineup and 4 of 5 starting pitchers are new?  Should be interesting all righty.

Off Season Analysis:

A flurry of trading.  Joe Mays and Mike Young were the “highlights” of the FA auction, but then the action really got going.  I won’t even bother trying to sort out this business, that’s what we have a “Trade Analyzer” page on the SLB News board for.

Offense:

Name tags all around.  Potentially, if things “gel,” they’re awfully good.  Derek Jeter was a Comeback candidate last year and, if he has another .300 season is a good lead off hitter.  Mark Kotsay is an underrated star.  Josh Hamilton is arguably the best CF in the league and Miguel Cabrera is just a monster.  The real questions will be the 5/6/7 hitters.  JD Drew put up an .850 OPS last year on Scotland , a tough place to hit, and could well have his best year in the league batting 5th here, but you can’t count on him.  Joe Mauer is, in theory, a C capable of production, but his .376 career SLG says otherwise.  Paul Konerko had 35 HR and 102 RBI last year, but was that a fluke?  Those are the questions to decide where this team can go.

Pitching:

It would be hard to argue they are as good as last years ro’ of Mulder, Sabathia, Sowers, B-Webb and Jackman.  Peavy has a lot of pressure on him to go from surprise to stalwart.  Derek Thompson is a reliable if unglamorous #2.  Sowers is looking more like what he was his rookie year.  The big questions are Garland and Wainwright who have 4.93 and 5.47 career ERAs respectively.  They both need to drop that a run to be 4th and 5th starters.  I don’t really see that happening.  The bullpen should be pretty good if Kozlowski’s Comeback 2010 season 8-1, 1.77 ERA wasn’t a total fluke and if Billy Koch doesn’t get torched.  Somehow Mike Maroth got another job doing long relief for the Dawgs—when will people learn?  This guy gave up 21 HR in 57 innings last year for God’s sake.

Man on the Spot:

Jake Peavy went from an incredibly good bargain to an expensive ace in the off season.  Will the 2009 Peavey, who went 11-1 with a 2.00 ERA show up, or will we see the 2005 model who went 9-15 with a 5.59 ERA?

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Just squeaking under the cap, and only because Havana financed their 40 man fillers via a cash trade in Spring Training. Added 6 free agents via trades, so who do you keep. If I ran the team, Cabrera and Hamilton, which is probably where McAvoy is thinking too. 

Spring Training Wrap Up:

They really didn’t look good.  If you’re an optimist, you’d say, better they stink now than on opening day, if you aren’t, you’d say the new “chemistry” ain’t so hot.  At least Garland pitched well.  You have to wonder how much turnover a team can withstand and not have everybody out of synch.

Minor League Report:

Some very young hitters down on the farm, none of whom are ready to contribute. The pitching quota was filled with free agents at the eleventh hour, so that should tell you all you need to know there.

Opening Day Lineups:

         Batting Order vs. LHP:             Batting Order vs. RHP:
         SS  Jeter, D.                      SS  Jeter, D.
         CF  Kotsay, M.                     CF  Kotsay, M.
         LF  Hamliton, J.                   LF  Hamliton, J.
         3B  Cabrera, M.                    3B  Cabrera, M.
         RF  Drew, J.                       RF  Drew, J.
          C  Mauer, J.                       C  Mauer, J.
         1B  Konerko, P.                    1B  Konerko, P.
         2B  Hudson, O.                     2B  Hudson, O.
          P  Pitchers Slot                   P  Pitchers Slot
 


      Starters               Long Relievers           Setup men
      R  Peavy, J.           L  Maroth, M.            R  Landers, B.
      L  Thompson, D.                                 R  Koch, B.
      L  Sowers, J.
      R  Garland, J.         Middle Relievers         Closers
      R  Wainwright, A.      L  Kozlowski, B.         R  Looper, B.
                             R  Jackman, J.
 

Bench:

Kevin Millar really deserves the term “comeback player” since I think he’s spent the entire history of the league in the FA pool.  Koskie is the best of the bunch, they rest are not suitable to be every day players.  Injuries could hurt.
 
 
Right-handed Left-handed Switch-hitters
1B K. Millar
3B C. Koskie
-
SS J. Castillo
CF T. Redman
-
SS J. Peralta
-
-
CF J. Melian
-
-

-			
-		

 



Key Additions: RHP Josh Beckett, LHP C.C. Sabathia, C Jason Varitek, 3B Sean Burroughs, CF Alex Sanchez

Key Losses:  RHP Jon Garland, RHP Rich Harden, RHP Aquilino Lopez, RHP Oscar Villareal, RHP Adam Wainwright, 1B Justin Morneau

Spring Training Record: 13-25

Opening Day Payroll: $86,900,000

Stadium Name:  The Wanderer's Grounds

Stadium Model:  Kauffman Stadium (Grass)

Predicted Finish: 1st in North (Darin) / 1st in North (Tom)


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Well that rebuild didn't take long. Like the Diablos down South, Halifax made a quick turnaround after dumping salary last season, using their surplus of cash to make big improvements to a young and talented roster. Though the team is by no means perfect, I give the Sailors the slightest edge over Cleveland simply because of the Beckett/Sabathia tandem at the top of the rotation. Still, there is room for improvement, particularly in the back end of the rotation, so Lars Cain needs to remain active on the trade front if he hopes to get out of the first round of the playoffs (much less make it in the first place).

Off Season Analysis:

The two big moves were clearly the signing of Beckett and the trade for Sabathia. Though these guys are a tax on the payroll, they are both #1 starter material, and have had their best years in cold climates. A perfect fit I'd say. The other main additions are a pair of ex-Evzones: the speedy Alex Sanchez and the extra-base machine Sean Burroughs. Great pickups if they stay healthy. Lost Harden from the rotation and Morneau from the lineup, but the additions far outweigh the subtractions.

Offense:

Besides the additions of Sanchez and Burroughs, it's the usual suspects up in Canada. Mackey, Fielder, Young and Gibbons all had solid seasons for Halifax last year and look to continue improving. Young was especially good, finally achieving superstar status. Well "finally" is bit much as he's still just 25 years old, but his 41 HR and 119 RBI certainly set him apart from the rest of his team. Josh Barfield was also putting up good numbers but finds himself at his weakest infield position (SS) to make room for Burroughs at third. A lot of platooning going on, including rookie Matthew Edwards at 1B. Yes, he looked pretty good this spring, but his ratings are underwhelming at best. 

Pitching:

We've already talked about Beckett and Sabathia, so who else is in this rotation. Matt Morris (isn't he ancient by now?) holds down the #3 spot after a disappointing 8-11 campaign in 2010. The guy still has a career ERA of 3.71, so not too shabby. Then things get iffy, with Ridener (10-10, 4.61) and Meche (3-10, 5.15 in AAA) rounding things out. Ridener is certainly fine for a #5 starter, but something needs to be done to upgrade Meche, who despite a fine spring, still is a terrible option for the long haul. Three rookies in the pen, including the highly touted Craig Hansen and Cliff Gatsby, both of whom have very high expectations. Paul Phillips was unhittable this spring, but is starting the year off in middle relief. He may be the answer to the Meche conundrum if Cain is lucky. Armando Benitez is now 38 but can still bring the heat. Overall, the potential is there for a top 5 bullpen.

Man on the Spot:

All we know of Craig Hansen is his 16 innings with Cleveland last year. 2.81 ERA with 9 saves is pretty impressive. Is this kid the next big closer?  

Tom's Take

Overview:

Last season, GM Lars Cain decided to go into rebuilding mode, trading away vets and clearing the books to go shopping in the off season.  Beckett and Burroughs came by way of big contracts and Sabathia came in a trade and before you know it, the Sailors are the favorites to win the North again—for a while.  That’s how it’s done, folks.  There are some holes in the offense and the bullpen is very young, so I won’t be predicting this team to win it all, but based on starting pitching alone, this is a team to be feared.  I certainly expect some trades will be made to fix up the offense as the season goes along. 

Off Season Analysis:

Major improvements to the starting ro’ were made by giving Beckett a $13mil contract and dealing a passel of pitchers for Sabathia.  Also spent $11mil poaching Burroughs and Alex Sanchez off Ellas.  Good players, but the atmosphere in Athens is a lot different than that in Halifax , so questions exist as to whether they are overpriced.

Offense:

Halifax had the 5th best offense in the league last year and probably improved upon it by adding Burroughs and implementing some platoons.  Delmon Young and Prince Fielder are the core of this offense.  Young put up a staggering 1.069 OPS last year and Fielder is capable of 50 HR any healthy year.  Jay Gibbons had an absolute career year in 2010, hitting .324 with 108 extra base hits, and for that he gets platooned.  Josh Barfield is playing SS now and his contribution is always a key as he can hit anywhere from .250 to .300.  The leadoff platoon of Mackey and Alex Sanchez will bear some attention.  Catcher is fairly weak with Poterson and Varitek platooning, but what’s new there?

Pitching:

Sabathia and Beckett pitching in Canada should be just frickin’ scary.  Either could win 20 games easy.  Although Matt Morris went 8-11 last year, his career 3.71 ERA suggests that was a one time deal.  Eric Ridener is promising but not yet a reliable winner.  Gil Meche’s career numbers are horrid, but he looked good in Spring Training, so, for a 5th starter, he’s worth a gamble.  The pen is very young, but of the league’s young relievers, Hansen and Gatsby are among the best.  Hansen got tossed into the closer role last year right out of the ammy draft and dominated.  Lars pulled him before he could lose rookie status, but he could be the next Eric Gagne.

Man on the Spot:

GM Lars Cain bestowed an $8 million a year contract on Sean Burroughs despite his fragility.  He’s being asked to bat 5th and drive in more runs that he was in Athens .  Can he stay healthy and get over 100 RBI?

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Amazingly expensive considering how young the offense is. I guess having Sabathia and Beckett will do that. Just two free agents, but expect Prince Fielder to get a healthy pay raise. 

Spring Training Wrap Up:

Try out city and not a lot to get juiced about.  Matt Edwards won a platoon job hitting better than expected.  Cameron Johnson is going to be a heckuva hitter one day, but for now Halifax will hold him back a year.  Ridener wasn’t sharp and that could be a concern.  Meche pitched well enough to get a shot at one last career redemption.  Kris Benson’s 5.07 ERA wasn’t enough to justify keeping him and his wife around, so they told him to take the Anna Benson show on the road to Calgary . I’m sure she’ll be thrilled.

Minor League Report:

Joseph Dyche is the real prize of the farm system right now, and should be ready to go by Opening Day 2012 if not sooner. Mark Pawalek could be fantastic if he refines his pitches.

Opening Day Lineups:

         Batting Order vs. LHP:             Batting Order vs. RHP:
         2B  Mackey, T.                     CF  Sanchez, A.
         CF  Davie, E.                      LF  Gibbons, J.
         LF  Fielder, P.                    RF  Young, D.
         RF  Young, D.                      1B  Fielder, P.
         3B  Burroughs, S.                  3B  Burroughs, S.
         SS  Barfield, J.                   SS  Barfield, J.
         1B  Edwards, M.                    2B  Mackey, T.
          C  Poterson, J.                    C  Varitek, J.
          P  Pitchers Slot                   P  Pitchers Slot
 


      Starters               Long Relievers           Setup men
      L  Sabathia, C.        R  Hanrahan, J.          R  Benitez, A.
      R  Beckett, J.                                  R  Gatsby, C.
      R  Morris, M.
      R  Ridener, E.         Middle Relievers         Closers
      R  Meche, G.           R  Moreno, O.            R  Hansen, C.
                             R  Phillips, P.
 

Bench:

Platoons give them a lot of options.   Crosby is an above average back up IF.  Not a lot of power if you hope for a late HR.
 
 
Right-handed Left-handed Switch-hitters
1B M. Edwards (vs.R)
CF A. Sanchez (vs.L)
C J. Poterson (vs. R)
SS B. Crosby 
RF J. Gibbons (vs.L)	
C. Jason Varitek (vs.L)
SS R. Luiz
				
-
LF M. Holliday -
-
RF E. Davie (vs.R) - -

-			
-		

 



Key Additions: RHP Jason Marquis, RF Jason Lane

Key Losses:  RHP Freddy Garcia, 1B Jason Phillips, 2B Orlando Hudson, 3B Scott Rolen, RF Aubrey Huff

Spring Training Record: 21-17

Opening Day Payroll: $71,200,000

Stadium Name:  Connie Mac Stadium

Stadium Model:  Wrigley Field (Grass)

Predicted Finish: 3rd in North (Darin) / 3rd in North (Tom)


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Same old Phynatics. This team won 71 games last year and will probably finish in that area again. Not many changes will get you that, and Philly fans won't see many new faces on this team in 2011. A few upgrades were made, but not nearly enough to keep up with the Dawgs or Sailors. Might be enough to pass Bedford, but that's no guarantee. We need to see this team choose a direction and go with it. It's just impossible to compete in this league with the current set of players. Rebuild, or go for broke.

Off Season Analysis:

Not a whole lot of moves, and they lost more than they gained. Jason Lane was miserable last year but could be due for a big comeback. Marquis should be better than Garcia, but that's not saying much. Rolen was a bust, so no loss there. They'll miss Aubrey Huff for sure.

Offense:

In their defense, many key players terribly underachieved in 2010. You'd expect more from Preston Wilson (.229), Rafael Furcal (.235) and Carl Crawford (.201). So you'd think there would have to be improvement just by seeing these guys a little closer to their career #'s. As mentioned before, Aubrey Huff will be sorely missed. He was seemingly the only player who defied the no-hit zone in New Connie Mac, and his OBP was a sizzling .364. Lots of platooning indicates to me some indecisiveness about who is most qualified to start, but on the field results should clear up some of those positional battles. If Blalock, Wilson and Lane can put up 90+ RBI each and they can get anyone on at the top, they'll be okay, but this team is light years away from an Ellas level lineup.

Pitching:

Wood and Zito are the #1 and #2 guys for the eleventy billionth year in a row. They must love Pennsylvania as they have suffered some brutal years on this team. Then it gets, uh, interesting. Jason Marquis can certainly eat up innings, but he's a #4 at best. Brad Penny returned to the team at a substantial discount, which makes management happy, but is this an "on" year or an "off" year for this guy? Jeremy Guthrie showed some flashes of ability as a starter last year, but not exactly Mr. Reliable. Brad Lidge remains one of the best closers in the game, and could be a very valuable trade chip in July. Dante Inferno looks to improve, and Rule V'er Calvin Trest adds a second young lefty to the pen. 

Man on the Spot:

Wilson or Lane. Both are capable of (and have produced) much, much more. Can either return to form?  

Tom's Take

Overview:

Philly is unlikely to be as bad as they were in 2010, but whether they crawl out of last place or not probably depends a lot on Bedford, but I foresee them in a battle for last, not first.  The Washington Senators, the Philly AAA franchise, dominated last year and yet, Philly hasn’t called up these studs in the numbers you might expect.  It seems silly to spend $7mil on Hank Blalock when you have Al Pepper putting up a .833 SLG in AAA.  Jack Schalk gets some AB, but why not use him every day?  GM Brian B was trying to move some vets in the off season, so maybe it’s just a matter of time, but Philly needs to get their direction fixed soon.  They should get a hot prospect in the draft this year and will have a ton of money coming off the books, so expect a competitive team next year or in two at the worst.

Off Season Analysis:

Not what I consider to be money wisely spent, but, hey, maybe that’s just me.  Hank Blalock seems overpriced at $7mil, but I guess he did hit 42 HR last year.  Jason Marquis is a gamble, but $4mil for a .500 SP would be a bargain in this league.  Couple of nice bargains in Penny, Lackey and Tonis, any of which would be a financial boon if they can play well enough to stay in a day-to-day lineup.  Don’t blame them for buying out Scott Rolen no matter what he does in Paris , it had to be done.

Offense:

Slightly below average last year in pretty much every way: runs, HR, avg., SB.  Adding Jason Lane should give them some more pop, but expect this to be in the bottom half of league offenses come end of the year.  They’re getting old, too.  Not all of them are ready to retire, but few are in their 20’s.  Expect guys like Preston Wilson and Rafael Furcal to be aggressively shopped to make way for Schalk and Osteen.  Carl Crawford will have to produce this year or I’d expect Brian B to buy out his $5mil contract to build up the FA war chest.

Pitching:

It’s sort of a collection of guys that are not quite as good as you think they oughtta be.  Underachievers-R-Us.  Kerry Wood is still the cream of the crop, but his 88-73 career record hardly seems to justify his $10mil a year salary.  Zito, likewise, should be better than a 4.54 ERA—his 2010 stat.  Penny had the exact same ERA but lost a painful 20 games.  Jeremy Guthrie was excellent last year in Washington , but his major league career is a 4.94 ERA.  Who knows?  None of them outright suck, but can they really be a part of winning baseball?  Bullpen is pretty good, including another underachiever, Dante Inferno and Brad Lidge, one of the best closers in the league.  Lidge is pretty likely not to end the year in Philly, though.

Man on the Spot:

Jason Marquis won’t be anybody’s ace, but he can be either a useful 12 win guy or be an eyesore like he was in 2010 going 6-10 with a 5.78 ERA.  He needs to be something like 12-10, 4.45 ERA if Philly is to have a chance at this division.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Happy to have been grandfathered in to the salary loss rules, as they still play above the cap after all these years of missing the playoffs. It's a big free agent year with Wood, Wilson, Lidge and Zito up for new contracts. Is now the time to clear the books? 

Spring Training Wrap Up:

They played pretty well.  Preston Wilson was in a serious zone, check his stats.  Jack Schalk added more evidence to prove he can hit for real.  Pitching was all over but John Lackey probably came a step away from getting another shot if he can put up a couple of good starts at AAA.  Rule V addition Calvin Trest looked sharp.

Minor League Report:

Mike Edwards is a 34 year old rookie. Poor guy. Recently added Josh Palm is the best starting pitcher prospect, while Robert Rohrbaugh is the hope at closer.

Opening Day Lineups:

         Batting Order vs. LHP:             Batting Order vs. RHP:
         LF  Crawford, C.                   2B  Garcia, D.
         CF  Schalk, J.                     LF  Crawford, C.
         RF  Lane, J.                       3B  Blalock, H.
         3B  Blalock, H.                    RF  Lane, J.
         1B  Wilson, P.                     CF  Wilson, P.
         2B  Pasucci, V.                    1B  Brazell, C.
          C  Pierzynski, A.                 SS  Pasucci, V.
         SS  Furcal, R.                      C  Pierzynski, A.
          P  Pitchers Slot                   P  Pitchers Slot
 


      Starters               Long Relievers           Setup men
      R  Wood, K.            L  Affeldt, J.           L  Inferno, D.
      L  Zito, B.                                     R  Biddle, R.
      R  Penny, B.
      R  Marquis, J.         Middle Relievers         Closers
      R  Guthrie, J.         R  Rodney, F.            R  Lidge, B.
                             L  Trest (V), C.
 

Bench:

Another team with much of the bench a reflection of a few platoons.  Brazell/Schalk should get most of the pinch hitting unless one gets a full time job.  Good speed in Furcal and Wiggington.  Nobody here it’s a crime to be kept out of the lineup either, though.
 
 
Right-handed Left-handed Switch-hitters
C M. Tonis
1B C. Brazell (vs.L)
SS R. Furcal (vs.R)
2B D. Garcia (vs.L)
LF J. Rivera
-
3B T. Wiggington
-
-
CF J. Schalk (vs.R)
-
-
CF L. Ford - -
- -

-			
-		


South Division



Predicted Order of Finish (Darin)
Atlanta Flyers 95-67
Savannah Sabers 86-76
Havana Diablos 85-77
Baltimore Panthers 83-79
Tennessee Thunder 50-112

Predicted Order of Finish (Tom)
Atlanta Flyers    95-67
Havana Diablos  87-75
Savannah Sabers 85-77
Baltimore Panthers 81-81
Tennessee Thunder 62-100

 
Darin: There are only two (near) certainties in the South this year: Atlanta will finish 1st, and Tennessee will finish last. In between, it's anyone's guess. And guess is exactly what I had to do. Savannah has great starting pitching but iffy bullpen, Baltimore has a good pen but some weak spots in the order, and Havana has tons of new players so they are truly an enigma. With the exception of the Thunder (who have fully committed to a total rebuild) this is probably the strongest the South has been 1 thru 4. Should be a fun ride. Tom: The script for the South is: one team you know is first, one team you know is last, the other 3 is anybody’s guess.  Used to be that was Havana first, Atlanta last.  Now, it’s Atlanta first Tennessee last and Havana , Savannah and Baltimore the unknowns.  I think the shake up in Cuba is over and they will play to win, so that team can’t be counted out.   Tennessee is a mess, but we said that about Atlanta for a few years.  If you can be patient and eat up those #1 draft picks, your day will come.

 

 



Key Additions: RHP Mark Prior, 3B Morgan Ensberg

Key Losses:  RHP Byung-Hyun Kim, RHP Bob Wickman (r), CF Jim Edmonds (r)

Spring Training Record: 27-11

Opening Day Payroll: $65,700,000

Stadium Name:  Quo Vadimus Stadium

Stadium Model:  Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium (Grass)

Predicted Finish: 1st in South (Darin) / 1st in South (Tom)


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Let's just get this out before we start: Anything less than a World Series victory for Atlanta will be considered a major failure. No pressure right? But come on! This offense lit people up last year, and now they have easily the best starting rotation in the league. Sure, the bullpen is still pretty craptacular, and the onus is on GM Jim Masters to perhaps part with a coveted prospect in order to shore that up midseason, but overall, Vegas has the Flyers as the odds on favorite entering 2011. 

Off Season Analysis:

Oops, how did we end up with a 4-time Cy Young winner at a major discount? Yep, before people had even settled into their chairs for the Free Agent Auction, Mark Prior had signed with Atlanta for a paltry $14 million per year. How did we let this happen? Surprise #2 came when Masters matched the bid on Zambrano, opening the check book and spending some of that recouped salary cap cash. The only other major addition was 3B Morgan Ensberg who came off a pretty decent year in Scotland. 

Offense:

Even better than last year? Scary thought, but with Hairston back at 2B and Ensberg in at 3B, it's probably true. Add to that the off season improvement of Dennis, Lemming and Co. and you have the makings of a really mean lineup. Six of these guys hit over .300 last year and four had 30+ HR. There isn't a weak spot in the lineup (unless you count Hairston hitting 8th, though he went .285/.326/.503 last year). What more is there to say but bring your glove to the park and have a time!

Pitching:

Zambrano, Prior AND Santana? Is that really necessary? Or fair? So it goes baseball fans, so it goes. Add in last year's RPOY in Mahara and this year's front runner "Homer" Bailey, and this ro' is just nails. Bailey was hitting 100mph on the guns this spring and finally gets his shot in the majors (after going 29-12 in 4 AAA seasons). Now the bullpen, however, is a different story, and continued to be neglected for yet another off season. It's nice that Masters is loyal to guys like Jackson, Hughes and Townsand, but the numbers don't lie. All have career ERA's in the mid to high 4's, and all have losing records. So the big upgrade to the pen this year was...Randy Choate? Ths team need Brad Lidge in a bad way.

Man on the Spot:

Jim Masters. This is th team you've been building for the past 6 seasons. Time to close the deal.  

Tom's Take

Overview:

Well, well, well.  So much for having the Flyers to kick around, eh?  Let’s not get too ahead of ourselves with the worship, though.   Atlanta won their first division title last season, but it was, at least in part, thanks to the fact that Havana dismantled, unilaterally disarming as it were.  This time, the Flyers have to win it for real.  They probably will, handily.  And I, for one, am happy to see it.  It goes to show, in this league, you can go from basket case to best team in the league if you don’t unload your top picks at the first chance you get and you spend wisely with the money you have.  Yes, you can compete without the highest salary cap in the league.  Hats off to Jim Masters, but no more “A for effort” stuff.  It’s time to get out of the first round of the playoffs.

Off Season Analysis:

Went nothing like they or anyone else expected.  Mark Prior came up, Atlanta bid $14mil and nobody else went any higher.  So much for plans to get relievers.  Then they signed Carlos Zambrano to a contract not much less than that of Prior’s and that took care of all but picking up some Choates and Ensbergs.  You can’t argue with taking Prior at a $2mil pay cut from what he got the year before, but we’ll see what the bullpen thing ends up costing them.

Offense:

In 2010 only Paris , of course, was better in either runs or BA.  The team is led by a bevy of former top draft picks: D2J, Darren Lemming, Will Hunting, and Troy Paris.  Lemming was ROY with a staggering 1.167 OPS and 41 HR in 125 games.  Healthy for a whole year, he’s my pick for MVP.  Not that Dennis Dennis couldn’t get it, he was the division MVP with a .330/35/120 season including 75 doubles.  Brad Fullmer was having a career year before he was injured and now he’ll bat cleanup.  He and Ensberg could both be places where production might drop off.  The only guy who isn’t a potential star is Hairston, Jr. and he hit .285 with 22 HR and 29 SB, so he’s hardly awful.

Pitching:

Undoubtedly the best starting pitching in the league with the addition of 4 time Cy Young winner Mark Prior.  You thought he couldn’t get better but last year his ERA was 1.73.  Enough said there.  Zambrano actually had more wins that he did, 21.  Tosekawa Mahara was the ROY , though he’s hardly a typical rookie being 30.  He could be as good as the other two, frankly.  David Bailey will be your ROY for 2011, not much doubt about that, though he likely could have been ROY in 2008.  Then there’s Johan Santana, who is all but anonymous here.  The bullpen, on the other hand, is possibly the worst in the league.  This league rarely sees a complete game, so we wonder how much damage guys like Bartosh, Jackson and Hughes can do.

Man on the Spot:

Travis Hughes.  Closers are funny things.  You can take a guy like Doug Jones who, for all the world, should never have left AAA and give him the task of pitching one inning a day and he’s on the HOF ballot.  Hughes is nothing special thus far in his career, but he saved 10 games out of 38 in ST, which would put him on pace for a record breaking year.  ‘Course his ERA was 9.45, but who’s counting?

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Still a very cheap team, but that payroll looks to keep rising as the team stays good. Johan Santana is the only free agent of import. 

Spring Training Wrap Up:

Put the starters in and pasted people.  Teh ghey.  On the downside, though, it’s pretty clear anything that gets to this bullpen is going to be an adventure.

Minor League Report:

5 seasons, 1566 at-bats, 65 HR, 289 RBI, and a lifetime achievement award for Jim Lambert, resident Salamander. Jeffrey Clement is a beast. Truly a shame we didn't get to see him bat in spring training. Or see Tucker or Rogers pitch for that matter. But spring training isn't for seeing the kids get reps against major leaguers! It's about spanking on other teams with your starters!

Opening Day Lineups:

         Batting Order vs. LHP:             Batting Order vs. RHP:
         SS  Rollins, J.                    SS  Rollins, J.
         RF  Dennis Jr., D.                 RF  Dennis Jr., D.
         CF  Lemming, D.                    CF  Lemming, D.
         1B  Fullmer, B.                    1B  Fullmer, B.
         LF  Hunting, W.                    LF  Hunting, W.
         3B  Ensberg, M.                    3B  Ensberg, M.
          C  Paris, T.                       C  Paris, T.
         2B  Hairston Jr., J.               2B  Hairston Jr., J.
          P  Pitchers Slot                   P  Pitchers Slot
 


      Starters               Long Relievers           Setup men
      R  Zambrano, C.        L  Bartosh, C.           R  Hernandez, R.
      R  Prior, M.           L  Martin, T.            L  Choate, R.
      L  Santana, J.
      R  Bailey, D.          Middle Relievers         Closers
      R  Mahara, T.          R  Townsand, W.          R  Hughes, T.
                             R  Jackson, E.
 

Bench:

Kolkhorst is clearly a guy who should be an everyday player, so he’s a good bench guy.  Same with Valent.  No righties or real speedsters, so some limits. 
 
Right-handed Left-handed Switch-hitters
-
1B A. Lind
C J.D. Closser
-
2B J. Thurston

-
CF C. Kolkhorst
-
-
RF E. Valent
-
-
-			
-		

 



Key Additions: RHP Rich Harden, RHP Luis Vizcaino, 1B Jason Phillips

Key Losses:  RHP Octavio Dotel (r)

Spring Training Record: 17-21

Opening Day Payroll: $70,580,000

Stadium Name:  Panther Dome

Stadium Model:  Astrodome (Grass)

Predicted Finish: 4th in South (Darin) / 4th in South (Tom)


Darin's Take

Overview
:

To say 2010 was a disappointment for Baltimore is an understatement. The talent seemed to be there but the critics (myself included weren't buying it). The result was 73-89 and the front office scratching their heads. The talent is still there (a little better in fact), but can the Panthers put it together? Some of the key hitters are aging, so the window may be closing... 

Off Season Analysis:

Pretty good, as the team lost no one of import while adding some quality players. Rich Harden solidifies an already decent rotation, and Vizcaino bolsters arguably the best pen in the division. Was it enough though?

Offense:

No new faces, meaning the same weak spot still haven't been addressed. Patterson is a big question mark at leadoff, Matthew is highly conspicuous as a #3 hitter, and Cogan is all but an automatic out behind the plate. Was Criscola for real last year? If not, your big hitters won't have anyone to drive in. It's a big risk opening the season with that 1-2-3 top of order. If Pujols and Guerrero have another down year, this team is burnt toast.

Pitching:

Can't complain too much with how Gutierrez has built his staff. The Panther Dome is huge, which is good for players like Willis and Brazelton. Hudson, Harden and Pavano round out this veteran rotation and all look solid. The bullpen isn't dazzling but should be alright, especially if De La Cruz can harness his potential. Vizcaino was a good addition. 

Man on the Spot:

Matthew. Just because he's fast doesn't mean he can hit.  

Tom's Take

Overview:

I’d like to pick this team for higher than 4th, really I would, but I’ve been overly optimistic about this team before and, after all, I am a professional—I have to be objective, so 4th looks about right based on what we’ve got on paper here.  There’s no real “ace” in the rotation and a couple of holes in the lineup like Coogan and maybe C-Pat.  If the big name guys like Pujols and Vlad finally have overachieving years, who knows, but for now, too many questions. 

 Off Season Analysis:

Not a big year for the Panthers.  They kept Tim Hudson and picked up Luis Vizcaino to close.  They also made a nice trade to pick up usually above average Rich Harden, giving up a couple of relievers and a pretty promising OF prospect.  Team looks better than last year.

Offense:

The heart of the order, Vlad, Abreu and Pujols is, clearly, beyond reproach.  They are all getting older, but if they play at the top of their games, no other 3 in the league are much better. David Wright behind them had an off year in 2010 but he’s capable of 30 HR.  It’s the set up guys where you have the questions.  C-Pat has had a couple of .300 seasons and he can run, but it seems he bails whenever somebody really puts him in a spot to shine.  Criscola hit .285 last year, but I’m not sure you can put him in the “sure thing” category.  And then there’s Paul “Fastest Man in SLB” Matthew.  GM Jose Gutierrez is taking a real gamble letting him bat 3rd, but if all three of them hit .300, this team will be a menace.  There’s little doubt this team will lead SLB in steals, 200 team steals is a real possibility. 

Pitching:

Sort of a rotation of #3 starters.   Hudson has never been as good hoped for but his 10-8 3.64 year last season was fine.  Harden is 73-75 with a 4.37 career ERA.  Pavano, also a respectable year with a 3.70 ERA in 2010.  Willis gave up too many HR, but he can be good or bad any given season.  Brazelton was 13-9 last year.  So nobody you’d really hate to see out there, but no dominating pitcher either.  They all need run support to win, so we’ll have to see what Baltimore can give them.  Vizcaino and Rule V gift Eulogio De La Cruz will help the bullpen, which is about average.

Man on the Spot:

Paul Matthew.  He’s faster than hell, but is he really cut out to bat 3rd?  If he can hit .280, he’ll be a heck of a weapon, but he sure seems like more of a leadoff man, if that.  He’d probably pinch run on a lot of teams.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Had to cook the books just to fill out the 40 man under the cap. No financial flexibility at all. 60% of the starting rotation plus Guerrero and Abreu up for contracts. Could be ugly. 

Spring Training Wrap Up:

Saw the usual from the hitters—Abreu, Vlad, Pujols ready to rock.  Tried out a lot of pitchers and didn’t like what they saw.  Especially from Jason Vecchio who should be given Dragonskin armor before he takes the mound. 

Minor League Report:

Bare minimum number of hitters, and they mostly blow. Can Vecchio and Cortes shake off the pounding they took in March?

Opening Day Lineups:

         Batting Order vs. LHP:             Batting Order vs. RHP:
         CF  Patterson, C.                  CF  Patterson, C.
         SS  Criscola, J.                   SS  Criscola, J.
         2B  Matthew, P.                    2B  Matthew, P.
         RF  Guerrero, V.                   RF  Guerrero, V.
         LF  Abreu, B.                      LF  Abreu, B.
         1B  Pujols, A.                     1B  Pujols, A.
         3B  Wright, D.                     3B  Wright, D.
          C  Coogan, F.                      C  Coogan, F.
          P  Pitchers Slot                   P  Pitchers Slot
 


      Starters               Long Relievers           Setup men
      R  Hudson, T.          R  Kawabata, T.          R  Trink, M.
      R  Harden, R.          R  Guzman, A.            R  Mota, G.
      R  Pavano, C.
      L  Willis, D.          Middle Relievers         Closers
      R  Brazleton, D.       R  De La Cruz (V), E.    R  Vizcaino, L.
                             L  Fuentes, B.
 

Bench:

Not much pop.  No lefties is not good.  Phillips can back up C, so that’s his function.  Overall, not the bunch you want to have to make a call to.  Hope you stay healthy.
 
 
Right-handed Left-handed Switch-hitters
1B J. Phillips
-
2B L. Castillo
2B J. Heckman
-
-
CF H. Mitchell
-
-
RF C. Johnson
-
-
-
-			
-		

 



Key Additions: RHP Brendan Donnely, RHP Don Drysden, RHP Danny Graves, RHP Aquilino Lopez, LF Lance Berkman, CF Carlos Beltran, RF Aubrey Huff

Key Losses:  RHP A.J. Burnett, RHP Brock Landers, C Jason Varitek, CF Marlon Byrd, CF Mark Kotsay

Spring Training Record: 12-26

Opening Day Payroll: $58,350,000

Stadium Name:  The Cigar Box

Stadium Model:  Jacob's Field (Grass)

Predicted Finish: 3rd in South (Darin) / 2nd in South (Tom)


Darin's Take

Overview
:

So much for the youth movement. Last year's fire sale has turned out to be a quick rebuild of the farm system, with all the extra cash going back to making this team competitive again. Havana has never seen this kind of turnover on offense! The key of course is how well the youthful pitching staff holds up and if the bullpen can get anyone out. The Diablos could win anywher from 70-90 games. Who knows?  

Off Season Analysis:

Had two main targets and signed one. Dallas McPherson was brought in to fill the 3B hole that Travis Chapman was clearly unprepared for. The other coveted FA was Josh Beckett, but despite having mountains of cash to spend, management got gun shy and let him go to Halifax. Could prove costly considering the clear lack of an ace on this rotation. 6 new position players in the starting lineup push many of last year's hopefuls back to AAA for more seasoning. All of the trading last year lead to a front office oversight and left De La Cruz and Trest exposes in the Rule V Draft. Oops.

Offense:

The only holdover from Opening Day 2010 is Esteban German, and he's now playing SS. It's been that kind of year for the Diablos, who welcome 6 new faces to the lineup. GM Darin Keesing has tried to build this offense in a "classic" style; speed at leadoff, good OBP at #2 and #3, power in the middle, flip flopping L-R, etc. Huff, McPherson and Berkman should be a pretty fierce tandem in this lineup, and if Eric Dalton can replicate his spring training stats over the long haul, the Diablos will score a good amount of runs. Carlos Beltran and Scott Hodges were plucked out of the free agent pool after they were cut from other clubs for salary reasons, and last year's backup catcher Victor Martinez fills in at #8.

Pitching:

It's wait and see with these youngsters. Bobby Brownlie is the "veteran" of this rotation (scary), but all have shown some promise in their short careers. Les Beltre may be the best unknown pitcher in the league, and Larry Brush has the potential to be a very solid #3. Greinke and Bush are the wildcards, as both have great potential but neither has been even remotely consistent. Greinke looked great this spring, while Bush was horrible. Expect ERA's in the high 4's from those two. It's "Scott Stewart and the New Guys" in the pen which welcomes back Aqulino Lopez as well as veterans Danny Graves, Brendan Donnely and Neal Cotts. Don Drysden is asked to close, and could have a great year since he's up for a new contract. 

Man on the Spot:

Beltre. #1 starter for a contending team? That remains to be seen. But a career 2.99 ERA in 42 starts is a good start.  

Tom's Take

Overview:

Well, that was fun, wasn’t it?  In 2010, the Diablos imploded, trading away: Haren, Lohse, Derrek Lee, Santana, Wickman, Lane, Hawkins, Lowell, Dontrelle Willis, Abreu and others in an attempt to rebuild and “cleanse” the team of what Jorge Posada viewed as bourgeois filth.  In the process, they probably set the playoffs as ATL, CLE and SCOT were all the prime beneficiaries of the fire sale.  Fun for Havana , who can do what they want, but maybe not so hot for teams that didn’t get in on the gravy train.  So, anyway, the team’s wheeling and dealing will sort itself out this year and they also opened up the checkbook to land Dallas McPherson, who is a perennial MVP candidate.  I doubt they can beat Atlanta , but they should be fun.  And with mountains of cash to toss around, there’s no reason to believe the lineups we’ve got today will look much like what we’ll see in September.

Off Season Analysis:

Let’s be frank: Darin Keesing needed some GMing Viagra this off season.  You go in with $60mil to spend and you come away with Dallas McPherson (okay) and Jake Peavey?  Limp.  Could have had Mark Prior in addition and, at this point, still had $18mil to put in the bank.   Can’t put it any other way, the Diablos were all hat and no cattle this off season.

Offense:

The 2010 Diablos scored an anemic 669 runs, so they can pretty much only improve.  In fact, they should be pretty damn good.  Esteban German is real fast and if he hits close to .300 he should steal 80 and score 110.  Huff is a .308 career hitter.  McPherson is, well, God.  Then the questions start.  Lance Berkman was once one of the top 10 offensive players in the league, but not so much last year.  Old or fluke?  Eric Dalton is anybody’s guess.  He could whiff 200 times AND hit 55 HR.  Carlos Beltran is still a good player who has regularly hit .280 or better with at least 25 HR, but he’s such a disappointment, few teams seem to want him.  Scott Hodges stock has fallen much as of late, but he’s also a career .300 hitter.  Weak C, big deal.  Not going to compete with ATL, PAR and ELL, but a good offense for sure.

Pitching:

Who bloody knows, right?  The only guy with much experience is Brownlie and he’s the most inconsistent pitcher in this league.  Beltre had a 3.12 ERA last season, so he’s going opening day.  Brush and Bush had ERAs around 4.50, but they are improving and will have a better offense to back them up.  Greinke is probably not good enough to keep around.  Look for a trade there.  The pen is improved with Donnelly and Cotts added in the auction and Graves and Aquilino Lopez picked up out of the FA pool at the end of ST.  But, overall, I don’t expect this staff to be in the top half in the league barring trades.

Man on the Spot:

The whole starting pitching is suspect, so I can’t pick one.  Thus I’ll say Lance Berkman.  He is the key to this offense.  We know what Dallas McPherson can do and we know there’ll be guys on base, so what Lance Berkman shows up will define the Diablos.  Berkman hit a tepid .274 last year, way below his career numbers.  Is he hanging on too long or can he rev it up for one more year?

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Way too much cash unspent. No clear direction heading into the auction. Signed or traded for 8 free agents, so don't go buying your Aubrey Huff or Don Drysden jerseys just yet. 

Spring Training Wrap Up:

The question on everybody’s lips, “Is Eric Dalton for real?”  We’ll find out soon enough, but he unloaded on the ST pitching, for what it’s worth.  JJ Davis looked about as good.  If this holds up, could be fun in Havana this year.  Pitching was another story, but at least they unloaded Peavy before the season started.  Ron Mexico?  (shakes head)

Minor League Report:

Last year's fire sale netted a pretty well stocked system. CF Peter Bourjos is the best rookie hitter, while Matt Bush and John Wineapple head back to the minors after getting at-bats last season. Potential for some great pitching as Striker, Asher, Mexico, Phillips and Maxwell all have strong arms, and all are 25 or younger.

Opening Day Lineups:

         Batting Order vs. LHP:             Batting Order vs. RHP:
         SS  German, E.                     SS  German, E.
         RF  Huff, A.                       RF  Huff, A.
         3B  McPherson, D.                  3B  McPherson, D.
         1B  Berkman, L.                    1B  Berkman, L.
         LF  Dalton, E.                     LF  Dalton, E.
         CF  Beltran, C.                    CF  Beltran, C.
         2B  Hodges, S.                     2B  Hodges, S.
          C  Martinez, V.                    C  Martinez, V.
          P  Pitchers Slot                   P  Pitchers Slot
 


      Starters               Long Relievers           Setup men
      R  Beltre, L.          R  Graves, D.            R  Donnelly, B.
      R  Brownlie, B.                                 L  Stewart, S.
      L  Brush, L.
      R  Greinke, Z.         Middle Relievers         Closers
      R  Bush, D.            R  Lopez, A.             R  Drysden, D.
                             L  Cotts, N.
 

Bench:

Hi, Jason Kendall, how’s that career goin’ for ya?  Yeah, some guys you’d expect to be playing are on the bench, so not bad.  Jorge Posada says he rescued Domenic Rich from the cane fields of Eastern Cuba (sounds like a Toe Nash story to me) and that he will amaze the league once they see his humble peasant work ethic translated to plate discipline.  We’ll see.  The rest of the league certainly overlooked him.
 
 
Right-handed Left-handed Switch-hitters
C J. Kendall
1B D. Rich
SS A. Machado
RF J.J. Davis
LF T. Sledge
-
RF A. Escobar
-

-
-
-			
-		

 



Key Additions: LHP Mark Mulder, CF Darin Erstad

Key Losses:  LHP Scott Sauerbeck (r), LF Lance Berkman

Spring Training Record: 21-17

Opening Day Payroll: $71,100,000

Stadium Name:  Oglethorpe Memorial Stadium

Stadium Model:  Shea Stadium (Grass)

Predicted Finish: 2nd in South (Darin) / 3rd in South (Tom)


Darin's Take

Overview
:

You never know what you're going to get with the Sabers, but with that pitching rotation, it's just hard to pick them to be that bad. Sure, the offense is still pretty "meh", and the bullpen leaves a lot to be desired, but starting pitching can get you far. How far, however, remains to be seen. Can the younger players pick it up for the losses of guys like Berkman and Sauerbeck? Health is the key to this squad, as key players often get hurt for the Sabers for one reason or another.

Off Season Analysis:

Pretty inactive, adding mostly AAA chaff. The big move was sending Lance Berkman to Cleveland for Mark Mulder and Darin Erstad. Berkman will be missed, but Mulder is a proven lefty and gives Savannah 4 very good starting pitchers. 

Offense:

This lineup somehow reminds me of Halifax, with the "stars" being homegrown guys and very few veteran additions year to year. With Berkman gone, Choi gets the full time job at 1B. Choi and Dunn need to do the bulk of the run producing in this lineup, as guys like Valderrama, Sizemore and Hawpe can't be counted on for more than 70-80 RBI each. Team speed is an issue as illustrated by Wilson Betemit (average speed at best) batting leadoff. No help on that front in the minors either. 

Pitching:

Oswalt, Humber, Mulder and Halladay is pretty darn impressive. If it wasn't for Carlos "5.30 career ERA" in the 5th spot, they may contend for top 3 rotations in the league. The bullpen is iffy despite the fantastic Eric Gagne in the 9th. If Chad Cordero can revert to his rookie form they may be alright, but 2010 was a season to forget for the youngster. Names like Eyre, Norton and Feliciano do little to inspire.

Man on the Spot:

Grady Sizemore will be asked to contribute in a major way. Is he up for it?

Tom's Take

Overview:

Savannah is much like Ellas, a perennially 2nd or 3rd place team that is never bad enough to get top picks, yet never good enough to get to the playoffs.  In fact, last year, this nondescript franchise got it’s first major league award in it’s entire history: Eric Gagne, Rolaids winner.  They’ve done nothing else of note.  So can they go that little extra mile and get to the playoffs this year?  You just have to think not, right?  But, we have to wait and see—maybe this year Savannah will make the crazy trades Cleveland did last year or be the beneficiary of the Paris fire sale if rumors are true.  But the safe money is on 3rd place here.

Off Season Analysis:

Not a lot of money after they matched Gagne’s contract.  Traded Berkman for Mulder, which seems like a fine move to me, if I must say so.

Offense:

They won’t be the best in the league, of course, but potentially, they could be enough to win this team the 90 or so games it should take to make it to October.  It all starts at the top and what happens there will define the Sabers season.  Wilson Betemit had a .375 OBP last year, but only in 100 games.  If he can do anything like that, look out.  Valeramma was actually better, a .400 OBP, but only in 36 short games.  Can these two set the table for Sizemore (career .295 hitter) and Hee Seop Choi?  Add to that Adam Dunn who hit .315 with 31 HR in 107 games and you’re cookin’ with some gas.  Hawpe, Polanco and the catcher platoon aren’t so great, but we aren’t asking for best in the league here, just good enough.

Pitching:

A strength made stronger by the addition of Mulder.  Oswalt is one of the league’s elite pitchers and he won 11 of his 24 starts with a 3.16 ERA.   Humber , one of the top 5 young pitchers in SLB, had, oddly about the same ERA and same # of wins despite starting 9 more games.  Then you have Halladay, somewhat of an underachiever, who also won 11 games but with a 4.06 ERA.  Last year Mulder won, darn, 12 games.  Thanks for messing things up Mark.  Carlos Hernandez is your 5th starter and he has a 5.30 career ERA—good luck with that.  The bullpen is Eric Gagne and 5 other guys who aren’t very good.  Look for trouble in the 7th and 8th innings.

Man on the Spot:

I’m going with Hee Seop Choi.  By now, I’d expected him to have won an MVP.  But last year he turned in a half-assed .282 with 29 HR in a full 162 games.  That’s just not getting it done for this guy.  He needs to step it up to .320 with 40 HR and carry this offense on his shoulders.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Comfortably under the cap, but not much cash to spend. Choi and Mulder look like the obvious choices to restrict unless Grady Sizemore blows people away. 

Spring Training Wrap Up:

Darin Erstad played himself out of a job and Yahmed Yema probably just about played into one—keep your eye on him.  Choi was in the groove, which is a good sign since he often doesn’t get hot until mid season.  Most of the expected starters looked good and Mark McCormick stole the show with 4 wins.  Another guy a year or less away from the majors.

Minor League Report:

Holy crap, some actual rookies in Tampa! That's no fun at all! Looking forward to tracking Mark McCormick's progress.

Opening Day Lineups:

         Batting Order vs. LHP:             Batting Order vs. RHP:
         SS  Betemit, W.                    SS  Betemit, W.
         CF  Valderrama, C.                 CF  Valderrama, C.
         RF  Sizemore, G.                   RF  Sizemore, G.
         1B  Choi, H.                       1B  Choi, H.
         LF  Dunn, A.                       LF  Dunn, A.
         3B  Hawpe, B.                      3B  Hawpe, B.
         2B  Polanco, P.                    2B  Polanco, P.
          C  Barrett, M.                     C  Hall, T.
          P  Pitchers Slot                   P  Pitchers Slot
 


      Starters               Long Relievers           Setup men
      R  Oswalt, R.          R  Hernandez, L.         R  Cordero, C.
      R  Humber, P.                                   L  Feliciano, P.
      L  Mulder, M.
      R  Halladay, R.        Middle Relievers         Closers
      L  Hernandez, C.       L  Eyre, S.              R  Gagne, E.
                             L  Norton, P.
 

Bench:

Balanced and competent.  Hafner is probably the best pinch hitting option and Erstad is one injury from the starting lineup.  Catcher is covered well, too, given the frequent injuries to the pitch callers.
 
 
Right-handed Left-handed Switch-hitters
C M. Barrett (vs.R)
1B T. Hafner
RF T. Linden
C T. Hall (vs.L)
CF D. Erstad
-
2B P. Phillips
-
-
LF J. Bay
-
-
- - -
- - -

 



Key Additions: RHP AJ Burnett, LHP Eric Milton, RHP Jered Weaver, C Tony Montana, LF Hideki Matsui

Key Losses:  RHP Jake Peavy, RHP Scott Sullivan, LHP Derek Thompson, RHP Ugueth Urbina, RHP Scott Williamson, C Joe Mauer, 1B Paul Konerko, 1B Richie Sexson (r), 3B Miguel Cabrera, SS Nomar Garciaparra, CF Josh Hamilton, RF Jeremy Reed

Spring Training Record: 16-22

Opening Day Payroll: $52,600,000

Stadium Name:  Thunder Alley

Stadium Model:  Riverfront Coliseum (Grass)

Predicted Finish: Last in South (Darin) / Last in South (Tom)


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Okay, so if you're going to commit to a full rebuild, THIS is how you do it. Hold your fire sale, get the best you can, and see what the scrubs can do. You won't win many games, but it will certainly be a learning experience. There is something to be said for not having 8 rookies all start their arbitration in the same year, but GM Ben Royer has years to worry about that. In the meantime, this is basically a AAA team trying to get through 162 games against the Atlantas and Ellas of the league. It would be a pretty good AAA team, but that's cold comfort for a Thunder season ticket holder.

Off Season Analysis:

Extremely active, and if the goal was to stock up on youth and shed salary, then mission accomplished. The best acquisitions were probably Jered Weaver and Tony Montana and will anchor the pitching and offense in this grand scheme. Hideki Matsui doesn't fit the MO this year and is likely gone as soon as someone makes a decent offer. Rumors swirl about two more deals that will go down in the first week of the season, with Burnett and A-Rod going overseas and youngsters like Lambert, Murman, Rollins, Royster and Ostrosky landing in Knoxville.

Offense:

Like Cleveland, it is 100% new people. Unlike Cleveland, it is going to be pretty bad. Especially when Matsui gets dealt. Montana is going to hit his homers for sure, but then it's really anyone's guess what anyone else will do. Joseph Kemp had a pretty successful AAA season last year and has shown some nice speed, while Garner Wetzel has a lot of pop for a middle infielder. I'm not sure what you're going to get from Baird, and I think Thompson and Gaston have probably hit their ceilings. Expect little and like it.

Pitching:

This is where it gets really interesting. Five starters with a combined 143 IP of major league experience...offensees around the league are drooling. Three of these guys had awesome springs, so there is certainly hope that they won't get completely shelled, but I'd put my money on this staff leading the league in worst ERA real fast. When the A-Rod deal is complete, they could boast two of the most highly touted young arms in Weaver and Lambert; a pretty good start for a rebuilt rotation. Not exactly a sparkling bullpen either, with Rule V refugee Kenny Plaisance and fellow rookie Bobby Jenks playing pivotal roles.

Man on the Spot:

Jered Weaver. Opening Day starter on a very young team. He sucked in his rookie year, and now it's time to prove that all the hype wasn't just, well, hype.  

Tom's Take

Overview:

OK, if Ben Royer wants this team to win this year, he’s clueless, but we assume that’s not what’s going on here.  This team is going to be bad, real bad, this season, but with this year’s #2 ammy pick and next year’s #1 (maybe), the Thunder can plot their strategy to do what Atlanta has done.  Meanwhile, they can find out this season who they can build around other than Tony Montana.  The key for this team and its fans right now is patience.  They are going to get two terrific picks and will have  a lot of money to spend, so think 2 or 3 seasons away.

Off Season Analysis:

Well it was a little weird.   It was thought GM Ben Royer was done with the league and so auction duties were passed on, but it turned out that wasn’t the case [editor's note: Royer was in a car crash and needed surgery, preventing him from attending the auction].  So, Royer, took back over and started trading away most of the vets and big salaries.  Whether the trades were a good idea, we won’t know for a couple of years.

Offense:

Tony Montana is the only guy you can say much about at this point and he’s damn good.  His .575 SLG in 2010 makes him second to no one in catchers.  Matsui is a known entity, but he’s probably gonna get traded.  So we’ve got rookies Kemp, Baird and Wetzel, plus journeyman Mike Young, William Thompson who’s played a half year of decent ball and Jerod Gaston who also had about a half year in the bigs.  Kemp and Baird both hit very well in the minors in 2010, so they are promising.  Not sure about power, but average-wise, promising.  Wetzel is a real gamble, but if he’s good, he can play SS and the Thunder can go get a FA 3B in the off season.  It’s going to be fun, but don’t expect too much out of these guys.

Pitching:

It’s even harder to say much about these guys.  Jered Weaver, the eternal prospect has landed here and he’ll take his 6.45 career ERA and try to make a new start.  He’s followed by Phil Shirek who has a 6.50 ERA in his brief stint in the majors, but who is said to have improved markedly since then.  Michael Rogers has spectacular career numbers in the amount he’s been used and this season we’ll find out if he’s the ace of the future here.  DePaula and Allen were just average even at AAA.  Christopher Lambert could join the rotation as soon as the second series and he’s pretty hyped, too, at this point.  The bullpen is really a scrap heap, though a couple of prospects are coming from Ellas there.  If 3 or 4 of these guys work out, rebuilding has to be considered to be going well.

Man on the Spot:

How about picking on Jered Weaver some more?  Nah.  I’m going with Garner Wetzel.  He’s totally raw and playing him takes some real guts.  But he’s got uncommon power for a SS/3B and if he can prove this year he can ding 30 he’ll be able to stick around and help Tennessee rebuild this franchise.  Batting 5th gives him a real shot to put up gaudy numbers if he can deal with the spotlights.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Second cheapest in the league, and will go down closer to $40 million after A-Rod and Matsui are gone. Really no one worth restricting once all the trading is over. 

Spring Training Wrap Up:

The younger guys looked better than the older guys, so why not rebuild, right?  Tony Montana, who’s no unknown, was on his A game.  Joseph Kemp was also hitting, though.  Matsui, Young, Uribe—none of them seemed ready to play, so they are going or gone.  Shirek pitched very well, so there’s some hype around him going into the season.  DePaula pitched well, also, but it’s probably being overly optimistic to go on those numbers.  Plaisance and Allen did not look good, so even if a couple work out, some of these experiments are sure to fail.

Minor League Report:

Just started the youth movement, and have pretty much gutted the farm in doing so.

Opening Day Lineups:

         Batting Order vs. LHP:             Batting Order vs. RHP:
         LF  Kemp, J.                       LF  Kemp, J.
         CF  Baird, B.                      CF  Baird, B.
          C  Montana, T.                     C  Montana, T.
         RF  Matsui, H.                     RF  Matsui, H.
         3B  Wetzel, G.                     3B  Wetzel, G.
         2B  Young, M.                      2B  Young, M.
         1B  Thompson, W.                   1B  Thompson, W.
         SS  Gaston, J.                     SS  Gaston, J.
          P  Pitchers Slot                   P  Pitchers Slot
 


      Starters               Long Relievers           Setup men
      R  Weaver, J.          L  Ramirez, H.           R  Calero, K.
      R  Shirek, P.          L  Milton, E.            R  Westbrook, J.
      R  Rogers, M.
      R  DePaula, J.         Middle Relievers         Closers
      R  Allen, A.           R  Plaisance (V), K.     R  Jenks, B.
                             R  Gonzalez, E.
 

Bench:

Awfully good for a team that’s not.  Nady is probably better than some of the starters and Pierre can run, at least, despite his failure to prove he can hit in this league.  Guzman always seems to be holding the fort down as a backup IF somewhere.
 
 
Right-handed Left-handed Switch-hitters
1B K. Harvey 
LF B. Wilkerson
SS C. Guzman
RF X. Nady
CF J. Pierre
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-			
-		


Euro Division

Predicted Order of Finish (Darin)
Ellas Evzones 90-72
Scotland Rebels 88-74
Ireland Invaders 85-77
Paris Pimpernels 83-79
London Knights 70-92

Predicted Order of Finish (Tom)
Ellas Evzones 91-71
Ireland Invaders 89-73
Scotland Rebels 83-79
Paris Pimpernels 80-82
London Knights 71-91

 
Darin: And I thought the South was hard to figure out. Seriously, take London out and put the other 4 teams in a hat and pull one out. You're about as likely to guess right as I am. Tom: OK, I’m doing what I did last year with Halifax (whose record I got within 1 game) and predicting Paris based on my assumption that they are going to start unloading players to rebuild.  If they don’t, all bets are off.  But, despite the fact I’m always wrong with I do this, I’m predicting the Evzones to win it.  Why?  This is the best team they’re likely to have and they will probably do anything to win this one.   Paris , Ireland , Ellas and Scotland all finished with 3 games of each other, so how do you figure who is that much better or worse this year?   I have no idea.  So, it’s a guess and yet another guess about what might happen this year in addition to what I see in the lineups.  Oh, yeah, and then there’s London —almost forgot.  

 

 



Key Additions: RHP Ugueth Urbina, RHP Brandon Villafuerte, LHP Billy Wagner, RHP Brandon Webb, SS Nomar Garciaparra

Key Losses:  RHP Danys Baez, RHP Brendan Donnely,  LHP Mike Hampton (r), RHP Danny Patterson (r), RHP Javier Vazquez, 3B Sean Burroughs, SS Derek Jeter, CF Alex Sanchez

Spring Training Record: 22-16

Opening Day Payroll: $75,450,000

Stadium Name:  Malakadome

Stadium Model:  Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome (Grass)

Predicted Finish: 1st in Euro (Darin) / 1st in Euro (Tom)


Darin's Take

Overview
:

I probably sound like a broken record by saying "no, really, this is the Evzones' year." But I think it's true. Despite a bad habit of disappointing the hell out of their fans and bringing shame to their supporters, Ellas has what on paper looks like a championship team. The offense is arguably #1 or #1A (with Atlanta) in the league, and the pitching looks good to go. This is the best bullpen we've seen in awhile as well, so now all they have to do is go out there, stay healthy, and not suck. Sean Burroughs is gone, so that might help the health problems, but the not sucking part is out of any GM's hands. Seems like Tom Hey has made the right moves here, but will he finally see a World Series played in the Malakadome? 

Off Season Analysis:

When you look at the list of key additions and losses, you think "man, this team got hosed." But the roster still looks great, and one could argue that the bullpen turnover was for the best, the shortstop position is greatly upgraded, and players like Vasquez and Baez never really succeeded here. Brandon Webb sorta fell into the Evzones' lap, but his spring numbers make them glad he did. When A-Rod comes aboard next week, look out!

Offense:

They might not be as consistent top to bottom as Atlanta, but boy can these guys rake! Coon, Rockwell, Peppers is probably the most feared threesome in baseball (and not one over the age of 28). Ellas continues to have highly productive hitters at "defensive" positions, boasting the likes of Chase Utley at 2B and Johnny Estrada behind the dish. Stan Stieb gets the opening day nod in CF (and leadoff), and though he has always seemed to hit wherever he goes, he just isn't as intimidating as the super-speedy Alex Sanchez. He's unlikely to steal 43 bases or bad 13 triples as well, but Hey doesn't seem as concerned with speed as in the past. If Ellas doesn't lead the league in HR (or come darn close) there ought to be an investigation.

Pitching:

It's taken some time, but this rotation is looking really solid. It's funny how players like Mark Prior come here and fail, but the Jason Jennings and Ben Sheets of the world thrive. Such is the beauty of baseball. Wade Miller just loves the Mediterranean, posting a sparkling 19-5 record last season and garnering some Cy Young votes. Now Brandon Webb comes in after a rough go in Cleveland and could be one of the best #4 starters in the league if he returns closer to his Ireland stats. His long lost brother (?) John rounds out the rotation and will quickly answer the question "Can a pitcher succeed at the major league level with no fastball?" His spring was pretty encouraging, as is the fact that his team mate Jason Jennings doesn't throw one either. The bullpen looks fantastic, with Urbina setting up Wagner, but we've seen some of the best relievers in league history come here and fall flat on their faces (Rivera, Gagne, K-Rod, Hawkins....need we continue?) If these guys can't do it, I don't know who could.

Man on the Spot:

Brandon Webb. If he is great, he has the ability to elevate this rotation to one of the best in the league. If he fails, the team may once again be forced to make a quick trade to plug the leaks.  

Tom's Take

Overview:

People in Athens are getting justifiably sick of 3rd place, which has been the Evzones resting place for 3 years after 4 years of being in  2nd.  So, the team has tried to deal with one problem from last season, the fact the team was 11-19 in 1-run games and 2-7 in extra inning games by improving the bullpen.  They are also set to complete a deal, according to league sources, to add SS Alex Rodriguez, who they’ve been courting for years, making this, most likely the best team they’ll have assembled.  Of course, we’ve said that before only to see injuries destroy this teams hopes, but, at least, they keep trying.

Off Season Analysis:

Feeling comfortable with emerging stars Chest Rockwell and Stan Stieb, the Evzones let Sean Burroughs and Alex Sanchez go, instead sinking their cash into Billy Wagner and Brandon Villafuerte.  Brandon Webb basically replaced Javier Vasquez.  Jeter was traded to add another bullpen stud, Ugeth Urbina. 

Offense:

Rumors are, management is getting a little tired of “Inky-ball” and wishes the team would have some more “small ball” options.  But, it ain’t this year, since the 2011 Evzones will be one of the most free swinging teams in SLB history.  If the A-Rod deal is more than a rumor, than there will be 3 guys in the middle of the order with the power to bang 50 HR—A-Rod, Rockwell and Peppers.  Add to that Coon, Estrada, Utley, and Jaque Jones and you’ve got a lot of HR.  Stan Stieb is probably the most suspicious guy in the order, but he hit over .400 in spring training.  Have to give him a shot.  That makes Nomar a very conspicuous bench player.  Have to be close to the best if they aren’t.

Pitching:

Athens , like Paris , is one of those places that seems to add half a run to your ERA.  That said, Wade Miller and Ben Sheets would look pretty good anywhere, Miller might win a Cy Young if it weren’t for that Prior guy and Sheets was just awesome once he became an Evzone again last year.  Jason Jennings did all that was expected of him, 11-7 with a 3.98 ERA.  The real question marks are the Webb Boys, Brandon and John.   Brandon has had an up and down career and whether it’s up or down this year probably depends on how much he keeps the ball down.  John Webb, lord of AAA, will take one more shot at being a decent 5th starter.  They ain’t asking much, just a 4.50 ERA and .500 ball.  The pen is the best in the league, you’d think, with Billy Wagner now on to close set up by Urbina, who’d close on any other team, and with middle relievers who have had steady careers: Erasmo, Villafuerte and Ed Yarnall.  Ray Werth can have ugly moments, but other than that what could go wrong…

Man on the Spot:

He’s named Webb whoever he is.   Brandon needs to come back to be a winning pitcher and John just needs to hold on and keep his ERA below 5.00.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Just squeaking by, but they're under. Wade Miller is a keeper, and at this point, Estrada is the other, though his name has been bandied about in trade rumors. 

Spring Training Wrap Up:

Put the starters in on offense and tried out people for the 5th starter role.  Pretty much as you’d expect on offense, but Stan Stieb was really in gear, even when asked to pinch hit.  Speaking of pinch hitting, check out Rob Mackowiak.  John Webb won the 5th starter job but the Evzones will keep a close eye on Michael Pelfrey’s development

Minor League Report:

All the best arms (besides Michael Pelfry) are heading west in the A-Rod deal. It'll be fun to see what a speedy catcher (Dahlberg) can do.

Opening Day Lineups:

         Batting Order vs. LHP:             Batting Order vs. RHP:
         CF  Stieb, S.                      CF  Stieb, S.
         2B  Utley, C.                      2B  Utley, C.
         RF  Coon, W.                       RF  Coon, W.
         3B  Rockwell, C.                   3B  Rockwell, C.
         1B  Peppers, D.                    1B  Peppers, D.
         SS  Garciaparra, N.                SS  Garciaparra, N.
          C  Estrada, J.                     C  Estrada, J.
         LF  Jones, J.                      LF  Jones, J.
          P  Pitchers Slot                   P  Pitchers Slot
 


      Starters               Long Relievers           Setup men
      R  Miller, W.          R  Werth, R.             R  Urbina, U.
      R  Sheets, B.                                   L  Yarnall, E.
      R  Jennings, J.
      R  Webb, B.            Middle Relievers         Closers
      R  Webb, J.            R  Villafuerte, B.       L  Wagner, B.
                             L  Ramirez, E.
 

Bench:

Maybe one of the best in the league, probably the best when Nomar goes to the bench.  Ruan is fast as heck and Mackowiak is Mr. Pinch HR.
 
 
Right-handed Left-handed Switch-hitters
1B P. Nevin
1B R. Fick
-
SS R. Aurilia
2B E. Drauby
-
CF W. Ruan
RF R. Mackowiak
-
-
-
-

-			
-		

 



Key Additions: RHP Matt Clement, RHP Joe Nathan, RHP Javier Vazquez, 3B Mike Lowell, SS Adam Everett, OF Marlon Byrd, CF Johnny Damon, CF Andruw Jones, RF Austin Kearns

Key Losses:  LHP Brian Anderson (r), RHP Mark Prior, RHP Felix Rodriguez (r), 1B Carlos Delgado (r), RF Raul Mondesi (r)

Spring Training Record: 18-20

Opening Day Payroll: $69,300,000

Stadium Name:  Lucky Leprechaun Field

Stadium Model:  Dodger Stadium (Grass)

Predicted Finish: 3rd in Euro (Darin) / 2nd in Euro (Tom)


Darin's Take

Overview
:

It has been proven that if any team can overcome heavy retirements and a budget crisis, it's Ireland. They weathered the loss of Sabathia last year and now face life without Mark Prior, but the Invaders always seem to keep their heads above water. The 22 open roster spots have been filled, the lineups are in place, and the team once again looks ready to compete in a tough Euro division. Do they have what it takes to nab a wildcard spot? Will they be more active on the trade market? How does their offense stack up against some of the other great lineups in the division? Fear not friends, your questions shall all be answered.

Off Season Analysis:

Yes, you hate to lose Mark Prior (especially considering what he went for), but when you have just $42 million to fill 22 roster spots, you can't go spending a big chunk on one guy. And truth be told, GM Tony Blake did a remarkable job filling out his lineups with high quality players considering the kind of financial restraints he was under. Six new starting batters (including an entirely new outfield) plus three new starting pitchers, all under budget and all ready (and able) to compete for the playoffs. 

Offense:

You really can't complain here if you're an Invader fan. While your old heroes like Mondesi and Delgado are off playing golf with the Rebels' fans, management has brought you some new superstars to cheer for. The new look outfield sports Andruw Jones, Austin Kearns, and a Johnny Damon/Marlon Byrd platoon; not too shabby, especially if Kearns can top his typical London numbers. Troy Glaus is moved over to 1st base to make room for Mike Lowell, and Alex Gonzalez will turn double plays with Miguel Tejada. Robbie Hammock, who hit so well he lead off part of last year, is no slotted all the way down to #8, which means this lineup is the best it's looked in years. 

Pitching:

With Sabathia and Prior off in the New World, Jeff Niemann has been promoted to staff ace. He had the second best ERA and third most wins on the staff last year, so it's probably worth a shot. Derek Lowe goes all the way down to #5 after a rough 7-12, 5.01 season in 2010. Working under the maxim that every pitcher does better in Dublin, Blake filled out his rotation with middling arms like Matt Clement and Javier Vasquez in hopes that the damp weather will keep the flyballs in the yard. Vasquez might really rebound considering his best years were in the equally damp climes of Nova Scotia. Joe Nathan is a great fit on this staff and should put up exceptional numbers. Rafael Betancourt is the only new face in a bullpen that saw a lot of good ERA's in 2010. Could be a team strength.

Man on the Spot:

Matt Clement is 16 games under .500 in his career, but has pitched mostly in the hot weather of Havana and Las Vegas. He was 10-9 in London a year ago. Will those numbers keep rising as he moves farther north? 

Tom's Take

Overview:

Ireland , like Ellas, missed the 2010 playoffs by a lousy two games.  So, can they get that game (or two) for 2011 and get to the postseason for the first time since 2009?  I think the chances are pretty good.  Granted, Mark Prior is gone, but Joe Nathan has won a lot of games in Bedford , similar to Ireland ’s climate, and now the invaders have a much improved offense.  They don’t seem as complete as the Evzones, but, somebody has to get the wildcard, too and we seem to be getting used to that being a Euro Division perk.  Might as well be the Invaders.

Off Season Analysis:

It was a quantity for quality sort of thing.  The Invaders chose to let Mark Prior go, but stocked up on talent everywhere else, including a flurry of bargain signings.  The big additions were Joe Nathan on the pitching side and Andruw Jones, Marlon Byrd and Austin Kerns for the offense.  You can never replace a guy like Mark Prior, but overall, it seems like the Invaders did more to improve the team than they lost.

Offense:

The Invader offense cranked out 766 runs last year, pretty good, but not in the same class as Cleveland, Ellas, Atlanta and Paris, so that seems to be what they’re shooting for.  They have a shot to get there as Ireland is as good as anybody 1-6 in their lineup.  Johnny Damon and Marlon Byrd platoon the leadoff duties and then Miguel Tejada steps in to bat 2nd, putting a pretty potent bat at that spot.  Tejada hit .309 last year, but was injured for about a third of the season.  Andruw Jones had one of the best years of his career last year in Cleveland and then you have Troy Glaus.  Glaus also missed a month or he could have given the Invaders two 50 HR guys.  Mike Lowell tagged 41 HR last year, though he’s never been able to hit for high average.  Austin Kearns should be good for 30 HR or so.  I don’t expect much from Gonzalez or Hammock.

Pitching:

Can Nathan and Vasquez combined make up for the loss of Prior?  We’ll see.  Carrying over from last year, Jeff Niemann becomes the team’s ace—and he’s earned it—and Derek Lowe continues as the Goat.  I guess Tony Blake really believes in the guy.  So the big questions are around Nathan and Vasquez.  Nathan has been a pretty good pitcher save for a year or two.  He could win 15 games easily.  Vasquez is much harder to predict.  The Evzones couldn’t bear another year with him and bought out his contract, but in a place that is more pitcher friendly, he’s proven the capacity to be a winner.  The bullpen isn’t expected to be a strength, but Anderson, Stone and Wunsch can all be above average if not spectacular.

Man on the Spot:

Vasquez, Clement or Lowe?  All the same guy in my mind.  All of them have, at one point, pitched really well, but none of them you can trust.  Lowe was the goat last year, so I’ll pick Clement if I have to go with one of the 3.  But it’s really a 2 out of 3 thing.  If 2 of the 3 have ERAs below 4.25, team’s probably in good shape.  Doesn’t matter which 2.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Needed all those free agents and still ended up $4 million under. Good accountants in Dublin? Only 3 free agents, and Chipper may retire. 

Spring Training Wrap Up:

Thurman Murman and Dick Hare played well enough to get traded.  Some of the vets were rusty (yeah, Glaus and Andruw, I mean you).  Vasquez and Clement looked good, so perhaps they are well prepared for their new home.  Stone did OK in his closer tryout. 

Minor League Report:

Most of these kids are headed to Tokyo.

Opening Day Lineups:

         Batting Order vs. LHP:             Batting Order vs. RHP:
         LF  Damon, J.                      LF  Byrd, M.
         SS  Tejada, M.                     SS  Tejada, M.
         CF  Jones, A.                      CF  Jones, A.
         1B  Glaus, T.                      1B  Glaus, T.
         3B  Lowell, M.                     3B  Lowell, M.
         RF  Kearns, A.                     RF  Kearns, A.
         2B  Gonzalez, A.                   2B  Gonzalez, A.
          C  Hammock, R.                     C  Hammock, R.
          P  Pitchers Slot                   P  Pitchers Slot
 


      Starters               Long Relievers           Setup men
      R  Niemann, J.         R  Osuna, A.             R  Anderson, M.
      R  Nathan, J.          R  Gregg, K.             L  Wunsch, K.
      R  Vazquez, J.
      R  Clement, M.         Middle Relievers         Closers
      R  Lowe, D.            R  Betancourt, R.        R  Stone, R.
                             L  Eckenstahler, E.
 

Bench:

Berroa is a back up who could easily play everyday.  Durazo would be a starter if he weren’t a 1B, but he’s a great pinch hitter.  Can weather an injury for a short stretch.
 
 
Right-handed Left-handed Switch-hitters
C G. Dini
1B E. Durazo
-
SS A. Berroa
CF J. Damon (vs.R)
-
LF C. Chen
-
-
CF M. Byrd (vs.L)
-
-
- - -
-
-			
-							

 



Key Additions: RHP Scott Sullivan, RHP Scott Williamson, 3B Aramis Ramirez, RF Jeremy Reed

Key Losses:  RHP Matt Clement, RHP Brett Myers, 1B Mark Teixeira, RF Austin Kearns

Spring Training Record: 21-17

Opening Day Payroll: $48,850,000

Stadium Name:  The Round Table

Stadium Model:  Tiger Stadium (Grass)

Predicted Finish: Last in Euro (Darin) / Last in Euro (Tom)


Darin's Take

Overview
:

While London lost 93 games last year, they certainly did much better than the 115+ losses Tom and I cursed them to in last year's Heaters. In fact, they were pretty competitive for awhile, but eventually ran out of gas as the young players hit the proverbial wall. Still, there were positive signs as rookie Kendry Morales took the league by storm, overshadowing a career year by Eric Hinske. The pitching was still bad, however, and will continue to be the teams' Achilles Heel this year. All you can hope for this year is continued improvement and a clear vision of the future.

Off Season Analysis:

Missed out on the Type A free agents due to scheduling conflicts (?) so it was yet another unproductive off season. Lost two veterans from the rotation, and though neither was what you'd call great, they were better than most other options on the roster. Kearns was a solid contributor but was replaced with Jeremy Reed, and Mark Teixeira never liked it here. Added some vets to the pen and took a flier on Aramis Ramirez. 

Offense:

Four positions are platooned to start the year and you wonder why. It's not like there are so many talented players on the roster that you have to get creative to get them all playing time. Jose Reyes can be an effective leadoff guy (he was a stud this spring) who slugged .520 and swiped 51 a year ago. Kendry Morales will need to adjust now that pitchers have seen him or else expect a drop in his numbers. Eric Hinske impressed with his 103 RBI, so why is he splitting time with Ramirez? Jeremy Reed continues his never ending quest to regain his rookie year magic (6 years ago) while second year SS Justin Upton is trying to keep his name and "bust" out of the same sentence. At best this is a middle of the pack offense.

Pitching:

It wasn't great last year, and little to nothing was done to fix that. Opening Day starter Odalis Perez was 11-11 last year, second to Randy Wolf in wins, and is the active leader in most HR allowed. Lance Broadway has worked hard this winter and showed needed improvement this spring. Kyle Newby, on the other hand, still looks totally overmatched and could be looking at the end of his career here at age 24. Buckner and Co. are all coming off of 5+ ERA years, so anything Williamson and Sullivan bring has to be an improvement, right?

Man on the Spot:

Lance Broadway was a #1 overall pick. Yes, he was rushed to the majors, but sooner or later you have to start showing your potential. 

Tom's Take

Overview:

Do you want to be a glass half full or a glass half empty kinda guy?  If you want half full, this team is slowly getting better and lost far fewer games last year than I predicted.  If you want half empty, this still isn’t a well run team.  They didn’t spend money wisely in the off season and have never shown the sort of patience or strategy teams like Atlanta and, now, maybe, Tennessee have in taking a long view of things.  Plus, they’ve made some bad picks with the high ammy picks they’ve earned.  This year’s $48million payroll team is pretty much a lock for last place.  Last year’s rookie class of Broadway, Buckner, Upton and Morales was a good one, though, so the Knights have 5 more years to build around that bunch.  Let’s see what the next step is.

Off Season Analysis:

There’s not much good you can say.  They didn’t lose anybody that they are going to miss a lot, but they added even less.  More aggravating, GM Sean O’ Hallaran has a habit of overpaying for third rate guys.  Nearly everybody they landed in Round 1 of the Email draft they paid much more than the next bid or bid in the millions of dollars on somebody who got no other interest.  I mean, $2million for Kevin Walker?  That’s no way to run a team.

Offense:

London hit reasonably well, .270, as a team last year, led by Jose Reyes, Eric Hinske and their first legit star draw for a while, Kendry Morales.  If Morales gets better, he’s the London answer to Delmon Young.  Jeremy Reed, a serviceable if not inspiring, player has been added to bat 2nd.  A big question mark will be how Justin Upton, the #1 pick in the ammy draft last year, matures.  Many would argue that the Knights could have damaged him by bringing him up so soon before he was ready, but this Spring he showed no ill effects of having his confidence shaken.  He’s only platooning and hitting 8th at that, but one day, he’ll have to help carry this team with Morales.

Pitching:

They’re going to suck something fierce.  One can hope Lance Broadway finally starts living up to some hype, but the other 4 will only win by luck.  Randy Wolf has had some winning years, but never because he’s been that good.  Same goes for Odalis Perez.  Both should be traded sometime this year.  The bullpen here is very good, with Damaso Marte, possibly the best lefty reliever behind Billy Wagner and K-Rod the stars.  If the Knights are smart, they’ll trade both of them, though, since they won’t do much good here and they have pretty good RP prospects in the Low Minors. 

Man on the Spot:

I’ll say Odalis Perez.  One way or another you figure he’s not long for this team.  If he has a good start this year, he might get shipped off to a contender, if he has a bad season, he’ll hit the free agent market with very little value.  He’s got a lot to play for.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Super cheap, as you'd expect. Reyes and K-Rod are your obvious picks to restrict. 

Spring Training Wrap Up:

If only Spring Training were the real season.  They had to have liked what they saw out of Lance Broadway.  Reyes was really on as were Hinske and Kendry Morales.  This team will score some runs.  Justin Upton looked much more mature at the plate than he did when he was shotgunned into the majors last year out of high school.  Newby, Wolf and Perez didn’t look so hot. Lot of try out types were not very impressive either.

Minor League Report:

You'd think a team with this many top 5 picks would have a healthier farm system.

Opening Day Lineups:

         Batting Order vs. LHP:             Batting Order vs. RHP:
         SS  Reyes, J.                      SS  Reyes, J.
         RF  Reed, J.                       RF  Reed, J.
         3B  Ramirez, A.                    3B  Hinske, E.
         LF  Morales, K.                    LF  Morales, K.
         1B  Overbay, L.                    1B  Johnson, N.
         CF  Rios, A.                       CF  Rowand, A.
          C  Rivera, M.                      C  Rivera, M.
         2B  Kelly, D.                      2B  Upton, J.
          P  Pitchers Slot                   P  Pitchers Slot
 


      Starters               Long Relievers           Setup men
      L  Perez, O.           R  Sullivan, S.          L  Marte, D.
      R  Broadway, L.        R  Harper, T.            R  Soriano, R.
      L  Wolf, R.
      R  Newby, K.           Middle Relievers         Closers
      R  Davis, P.           R  Williamson, S.        R  Rodriguez, F.
                             R  Buckner, W.
 

Bench:

Nobody who is on the bench everyday.  Interesting idea.  Maybe the platooning will keep these guys sharp.
 
 
Right-handed Left-handed Switch-hitters
1B L. Overbay (vs.R)
1B N. Johnson (vs.L)
1-
3B A. Ramirez (vs.R)
3B E. Hinske (vs.L)
-
SS D. Kelly (vs.R)
-
-
SS J. Upton (vs.L) -
-
CF A. Rowand (vs.L) - -
CF A. Rios (vs.R)
-			
-		

 



Key Additions: RHP Luis Ayala, RHP Danys Baez, RHP Byung-Hyun Kim, RHP Oscar Villareal, 1B Justin Morneau, 3B Scott Rolen, SS Bernie Castro

Key Losses:  RHP Brandon Villafuerte, LHP Billy Wagner, 1B Todd Helton (r), 3B Dallas McPherson, CF Johnny Damon, RF Shawn Green (r)

Spring Training Record: 19-19

Opening Day Payroll: $88,000,000

Stadium Name:  Maginot Line Field

Stadium Model:  Le Stade Olympique (Grass)

Predicted Finish: 4th in Euro (Darin) / 4th in Euro (Tom)


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Yes, you're reading that right. I'm picking the defending champs to finish 4th, which is journalistic suicide, but I'm honestly not impressed here. Though the Vegas rule of thumb is "never bet against the Pimps", I'm blazing new HSH trails and going where no prognosticator dares. And I'm sure to look dumb. After all, this team was all but mathematically dead last year but managed to squeeze out all the Parisian Mojo they could muster to leap frog 3 teams in the final week en route to an unlikely third SLB Championship. I'm sure I'll go down as either a hero or a fool...

Off Season Analysis:

More big names took their championship bling and ran this year, further depleting the once talent rich Pimps roster. Eventually all these losses have to take their toll, right? This year saw Helton, McPherson, Damon and Green head out of town, and despite the "anyone can hit in Paris" rule, this just doesn't feel like the same team. Byung-Hyun Kim was an interesting choice to bolster the rotation, and Danys Baez was signed to somehow fill Billy Wagner's shoes.

Offense:

With the recent rise of Atlanta and Ellas' youthful lineups, Paris' offense is no longer the league's gold standard for excellence. These aren't the days of Glaus, McPherson, Rollins, Floyd and Lee anymore. These are now the days of, well, Raines Jr., Jenkins and Izturis. Geoff Jenkins did make us look good as the predicted Comeback Player (and deservedly so), and GM Michael Taylor's newest reclamation project Scott Rolen may be next in line for that trophy. The othe additions to the lineup aren't the stuff of legend; Nic Jackson, Cesar Izturis, Bernie Castro, Justin Morneau? It's sad, really. Graham Koonce, it's your team now. 

Pitching:

Maginot Line Field will humble any pitcher, but Paris has always managed to make their guys look good with unreal run support. That level of aid is likely to drop some with this lineup, so we could see some scary numbers out of this rotation. Escobar and Williams will be alright, and Zach Day seems to only pitch well when wearing the Periwinkle and Teal, but what can we expect from Kim and Ellis. Kim wasn't exactly keeping the ball in the yard for Atlanta, so that's a recipe for trouble (though to his credit, he kept the runs off the board all spring). Jon Ellis looked very good in 6 starts last year, now it's time to see how he fares with 25-30 starts. Lost their best bullpen arms to either free agency or retirement. 

Man on the Spot:

Danys Baez replaces the best closer in league history. Good luck buddy.  

Tom's Take

Overview:

Bow down before the great Ones.  There’s not much left to say but that the Paris Pimpernels are one blessed bunch.  Two weeks left in the season, it looked like they were going to be out of the playoffs for the first time since the inaugural season and you could start speculating about future cap hits if they couldn’t come back in 2011.  Then they got hot, won the division, headed into the playoffs with a head of steam and completed our first back-to-back championship.  And third in 4 years for the Pimps.  Another year of FA picked them further clean and you have to think it’s likely that GM Michael Taylor will just help speed the dismantling along a bit and start another Plan.  Of course, his offers in the off season didn’t seem to indicate he was willing to give up competing this year, so we’ll see.  They might stick around.

Off Season Analysis:

The Diablos picked Dallas McPherson off this team and then division rivals Ellas poached their top two relievers.  Adding Kim and Baez helps deal with the latter and damn near anybody can hit .300 playing in Paris , but still, the lineup just doesn’t look as convincing.  It would have been hard to get any better though, by definition, wouldn’t it?

Offense:

How good is this offense?  The Pimps’ ERA last year was 5.01—tied for worst in the league.  The other team with that ERA, Tennessee , had the worst record in the league. Paris had the best record AND won the World Series.  Yeah, they were that good.  Looking over the names, you’d think they wouldn’t be that good again this year, but given what happens to guys like Gerut and Jenkins as soon as they put on a Pimpernels jersey, who knows?  Will Bernie Castro hit .330 now in Paris ?  Will Justin Morneau be the next Todd Helton?  Can Scott Rolen go from being average to hitting 40 HR and batting .300?  Would any of that shock me?  No, not really.  If I didn’t know what team they were on, I’d say that looks like the 5th or 6th best lineup in the league.  On Paris , they could still be #1.

Pitching:

They actually, starting pitching wise, look better than last year.  Sigh.  Yes, Kim should be a good fit here and he and Ellis are likely better than Waechter and Graves .  The bullpen is diminished by losing Wagner, of course, but Baez was a good closer everywhere but Ellas.  The middle and set up men don’t inspire confidence, but, then again, how good do they really have to be?

Man on the Spot:

Cesar Izturis will be interesting to watch.  He’s going to get a load of AB in the front of the Paris lineup, but he could easily lose his job part of the time to the faster Castro if he doesn’t get off to a good start.  On the other hand, if he hits over .300 he could score 130 runs.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

They've hit the salary cap ceiling, so they might as well lose for awhile, as there is nothing left to gain financially by winning all the time. Day, Escobar, Williams and Koonce all ready to test the waters of free agency. 

Spring Training Wrap Up:

Tim Raines, Jr. finally convinced them to give him an every day job.  Graham Koonce didn’t despite hitting a HR every other day.  Byung Kim looks like he could be a big winner here.  Other pitching tryouts didn’t go so well.  Long relievers aren’t the guys you wanna see a lot of if you are a Pimps fan.

Minor League Report:

Man, some of these guys have been around forever. Whenever their position becomes vacant in Paris, management fills it with a vet. Will Bluege, Blair or Connor ever get their shot? We're not seeing Italiano improve like we expected.

Opening Day Lineups:

         Batting Order vs. LHP:             Batting Order vs. RHP:
         2B  Izturis, C.                    SS  Castro, B.
         SS  Cabrera, O.                    2B  Izturis, C.
         1B  Koonce, G.                     1B  Morneau, J.
         LF  Jenkins, G.                    LF  Jenkins, G.
         3B  Rolen, S.                      RF  Gerut, J.
         RF  Jackson, N.                    3B  Rolen, S.
          C  Hillenbrand, S.                 C  Hillenbrand, S.
         CF  Raines Jr., T.                 CF  Raines Jr., T.
          P  Pitchers Slot                   P  Pitchers Slot
 


      Starters               Long Relievers           Setup men
      R  Escobar, K.         L  Washburn, J.          R  Riedling, J.
      R  Williams, J.        R  Waechter, D.          R  Ayala, L.
      R  Kim, B.
      R  Day, Z.             Middle Relievers         Closers
      R  Ellis, J.           R  Villarreal, O.        R  Baez, D.
                             R  Correia, K.
 

Bench:

Yet more platoons.  Cabrera and Castro are a good speed/hitting platoon.  Poor Graham Koonce.  All he does is tear it up whenever he gets a chance to play every day.  I’m sure he’s told his agent to get him the hell out of Paris when he becomes a free agent at the end of this year. 
 
 
Right-handed Left-handed Switch-hitters
C H. Kelly
1B G. Koonce (vs.R)
2B D. Jiminez
1B J.Morneau (vs.R)
LF N. Jackson (vs.R)
SS B. Castro (vs.L)
SS O. Cabrera (vs.R)
RF J. Gerut (vs.L)
-
-

-
-
-			
-		

 



Key Additions: LHP Mark Buehrle, RHP Freddy Garcia, RHP Jorge Julio, 1B Mark Teixeira

Key Losses:  RHP Josh Beckett, 3B Morgan Ensberg, SS Adam Everett, LF J.D. Drew

Spring Training Record: 26-12

Opening Day Payroll: $77,800,000

Stadium Name:  Stirling Castle Kilted Stadium

Stadium Model:  Busch Stadium (Grass)

Predicted Finish: 2nd in Euro (Darin) / 3rd in Euro (Tom)


Darin's Take

Overview
:

You'd think that an off season that saw you lose Josh Beckett  would be the death knell for a team trying to compete for a division crown, but I like the Rebels to make the playoffs. The remaining pitching is great, the offense looks tuned up...things are in place for a another run in 2011. Not that things ever happen like you'd expect, of course, but Scotland has built a team suited for it's ballpark and climate, and if they match their 46 road wins from last year, they'll be in awfully good shape.

Off Season Analysis:

Yes, Beckett is gone, and no, Mark Buehrle isn't going to make anyone forget him, but he may surprise people. Could the cold weather make a winner out of the much maligned lefty? Mark Teixeira was a nice pick up to replace Ensberg, and Jorge Julio could do quite well here. 

Offense:

Moving in the fences did wonders for this lineup last year. First and foremost it broke BB Boo-Ya out of his sophomore slump and got him back to kick starting the offense. 70 extra-base hits from your leadoff guy ain't too shabby. The team didn't score a ton of runs (they ranked 11th in the league) but got consistent production from 4 or 5 guys. Still, geography tells you that you may not see a 100 RBI guy in Scotland any time soon, but with their pitching, it really doesn't matter. You'd like to see Soriano get his average up but really everyone else has something to contribute.

Pitching:

In the past year this team has lost Beckett, Burnett, Beltre and Brush, but somehow they're okay. Haren, Tankersly and Lohse were all stellar last year, but somehow Verlander earns the Opening Day nod. The aforementioned Mark Buehrle rounds things out and has to hope that the park effects keep his numbers down (he's in the top 10 in most career HR allowed with fellow newcomer Freddy Garcia, but then again, Lohse was on that list too). The bullpen could really excel again this year. Farnsworth was amazing last season, and second year closer Shane Mungitt looks mean. Cordero and Julio are a great middle relief tandem.

Man on the Spot:

Mark Teixeira has a history of signing big contracts and then not working hard. Can hitting coach Mark Grace get him off the La-Z-Boy and into the batting cage?  

Tom's Take

Overview:

In the first year of Carmelo Guarneri’s reign, the Rebels captured the Wild Card and made it back to the playoffs for the first time since winning the World Series as the Las Vegas Rounders in 2004.  While a big part of that was a gift trade from Havana that sent Haren, Lohse and Lee to this team, you still have to credit Carmelo for not looking a gift horse in the mouth as it were.  So, anyway, this year Scotland will have to try to hold ground against the ever aggressive competition in the Euro.  They lost Beckett, who is awfully hard to replace, so I see this team finishing 3rd or maybe even 4th depending on what the Pimps finally end up choosing to do.

Off Season Analysis:

Strained by the financial burdens from taking on contracts in trades last year, the Rebels were unable to keep their two prized FAs, Josh Beckett and AJ Burnett.  Adding Freddy Garcia and Mark Buerhle hardly seems likely to compensate.  You’d have to call it a loss. 

Offense:

They had one of the worst offenses in the league last year, but, in their defense, Scotland seems to be an awfully hard place to hit the ball.  They still don’t strike me as on the level of the better offenses in the league, dead ball park or no.  There are some good players here.  BB Boo-Ya is possibly the best leadoff hitter in the league and he may steal 100 bases one day.  Vernon Wells is OK as a #2 hitter.  Derrek Lee had a bit of a down year last season for him, but that’s still good for most human beings.  Josh Phelps has pop, but I’m not sure he’ll work out in Scotland .  Soriano is one of the league’s bigger disappointments, though he could always decide to stop phoning it in.  Nix and Doumit don’t do much for me.  So, overall, good, but the last 5 guys in the order, counting the pitcher’s slot all are questionable.

Pitching:

Pitching should, by environment, be the Rebels’ strength, and, so far, it looks like it will be.  At least the starters are impressive.  Justin Verlander gets the opening day nod, ready to prove he’s gone from rookie phenom to start.  Then Danny Haren was 15-11 with a 2.43 ERA last year, followed by Tankersly and Lohse, the ultimate blue collar duo 145-108 over their careers despite rarely being mentioned as elite starters.  Buehrle is a question mark, but his ERA should shrink in Scotland ’s damp air, so maybe he’ll turn it around.  Basically a team of #2 starters.  The pen is OK but limited by one middle reliever and whatever the growth rate of Shane Mungitt is.  

Man on the Spot:

I’m going to peg Josh Phelps.  He hit 31 HR last year, which in most places would mean he’s a great bat to have in the lineup.  But HR don’t come easy in Scotland and he only hit .251.  If he can’t get the ball out of the park, he could overcompensate and get in a bad slump.  That would be bad news for a team that needs him to drive in runs.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Still playing with 6 year old WS cash. Cordero and Haren are your keepers. 

Spring Training Wrap Up:

Boo-Ya was working it.  Most of the rest of the hitters were, too, including Ryan Doumit who will finally get a chance to catch every day.  Pitching was terrific, too, especially Tankersly and Lohse who went a combined 9-0.

Minor League Report:

If you're a Rebels fan, remember this name: Sean Boatright. You'll know his name soon enough. Ricardo Romero looks to have a great year.

Opening Day Lineups:

         Batting Order vs. LHP:             Batting Order vs. RHP:
         SS  Boo-Ya, B.                     SS  Boo-Ya, B.
         CF  Wells, V.                      CF  Wells, V.
         3B  Teixeira, M.                   3B  Teixeira, M.
         1B  Lee, D.                        1B  Lee, D.
         RF  Phelps, J.                     RF  Phelps, J.
         2B  Soriano, A.                    2B  Soriano, A.
         LF  Nix, L.                        LF  Nix, L.
          C  Doumit, R.                      C  Doumit, R.
          P  Pitchers Slot                   P  Pitchers Slot
 


      Starters               Long Relievers           Setup men
      R  Verlander, J.       R  Garcia, F.            R  Farnsworth, K.
      R  Haren, D.           R  Graham, T.            R  Liriano, P.
      R  Tankersley, D.
      R  Lohse, K.           Middle Relievers         Closers
      L  Buehrle, M.         R  Cordero, F.           R  Mungitt, S.
                             R  Julio, J.
 

Bench:

All right handed, which is no good, but Renteria, Beltre and Lieberthal are all guys who would play everyday if they were a little more consistent.  Plenty of talent.
 
 
Right-handed Left-handed Switch-hitters
C M. Lieberthal - -
3B A. Beltre - -
SS E. Renteria
-
-
RF M. Restovich
-
-

-			
-		

 


Awards Predictions
Darin's Picks Tom's Picks
MVP - CF Darren Lemming (ATL) MVP - CF Darren Lemming (ATL)
Cy Young - RHP Mark Prior (ATL) Cy Young - RHP Mark Prior (ATL)
Rookie Hitter - LF Eric Dalton (HAV) Rookie Hitter - LF Eric Dalton (HAV)
Rookie Pitcher - RHP David Bailey (ATL) Rookie Pitcher - RHP David Bailey (ATL)
Rolaids Reliever - RHP Eric Gagne (SAV) Rolaids Reliever - LHP Billy Wagner (ELL)
Comeback Player - RHP Brandon Webb (ELL) Comeback Player - RHP Brandon Webb (ELL)
Playoff Teams - HAL, ATL, ELL, SCOT Playoff Teams - HAL, ATL , ELL, IRE
World Series Teams - ATL, ELL World Series Teams - HAL, ATL
World Series Champ - ELL World Series Champ - ATL