Despite an 83-79 record in 2011, the Crunch barely finished out of last place, so what makes me think they are going to win the division this year? While I'm not totally convinced (Bedford has a away of not living up to expectations) I just think that they had the best off season and could eke out the North title in what is still an awfuly competitive division. If pitching does indeed win championships, the Crunch are on the right track.

In my opinion, Bedford had the best off season of any team in the league. They added three very good pitchers, a great leadoff man and a solid power bat. In a division as tight as the North, pitching is everything, and with the additions of Willis, Escobar and Haren, the Crunch may have given themselves a leg up on the competition.

Offense:

Bedford has never had what you would consider a great offense even though they have seemingly had superstars like Eric Chavez and David Ortiz forever. Last year saw an increase in their run scoring but three of the contributors, Ichiro, Bradley and Pena, are either retired or playing elsewhere, leaving some question marks yet again for this lineup. Bobby Abreu was an invaluable addition who should pick up a lot of the slack, and Scotty Podsednik gives the team their first real leadoff hitter in ages. A solid hitting catcher and decent middle infielders mean there are no glaring holes in the lineup, but don't expect a top 5 finish for Bedford's offense.

Pitching:

This pitching rotation is clearly what could make this team a playoff contender. Dontrelle Willis, Danny Haren and Kelvim Escobar are a combined 294-196 in their careers...pretty serious success over many years in the league. Can they compete with the threesomes of Ireland, Ellas and Atlanta? Probably can come close. Jeff Weaver is just fine as a 4th starter, and Brett Myers could be one of the best 5th starters in the league if he matches his 12-10, 3.95 line of a year ago. The bullpen should be pretty average, and I'm not sold on John Riedling as a long term solution at closer, but that is the sort of thing that can be resolved in July.

Man on the Spot:

Wow, tough one. Bobby Abreu has had his ups and downs, but an All-Star quality season will really take this team to a new level. 

Bedford is one of those teams like Savannah and, until last year, Ellas, who aren’t the basket case franchises that London or Tennessee are, but who can’t seem to go that last mile. Bedford has only been to the playoffs once, as a wildcard in 2008, and has exemplified mediocrity by matching their 3 division MVP awards with 3 Goat of the Year awards, twice managing to get both in the same year, a dubious feat.  The Crunch’s off season moves are persuasive, though, and if they can squeeze one last good year out of guys like Abreu and Chipper Jones, they could pull this thing out finally—with a little luck. 

Off Season Analysis:

Gets my vote for the best job in the league.  Willis, Haren and Escobar suddenly give the Crunch as good a 1, 2, 3 as good as anybody else.  They picked up two good Avg./Speed guys in Podsednik and Furcal.  Bobby Abreu is, if he decides to be, one of the top 20 hitters in the league.  They seemed to pretty well break even on offense and got much better on the pitching side.

Offense:

Well, I guess it would be remiss if I didn’t mention that the average age of the starting lineup is about 35.6 years old.  Not exactly a youth movement and you can safely assume a couple of these geezers will be one and done if Bedford can make it to the post-season.  Once again, Bedford has a team seemingly well suited to their home park. They picked up Scott Podsednik, who has matured into one of the best lead off men in SLB, in FA draft.  He’s followed by Alex Cintron, who batted .300 last season, and the ever-menacing Eric Chavez, who put up a .390 OBP in 2011.   Bedford lifer David Ortiz, who spent much of last season on the DL, bats clean up and should put up 35-40 HR.  Bobby Abreu should be a nice fit here as he’s more of an Avg. and speed guy than a HR threat, though he can get you 30 there, too.  Chipper Jones is a real risk given his last good season was probably 6 years ago.  Hernandez and Furcal aren’t expected to contribute that much, but neither is a poor option at weak spots and Furcal could serve as a nice 8 hole guy, capable of getting on and acting like another lead off man.

Pitching:

Bedford had seemed like a pitcher’s paradise in the first few seasons of SLB, but taking that for granted, they let themselves go worse than Anna Nicole Smith in the last couple of years and the results haven’t been pretty.  Last year the Crunch had a team 4.70 ERA, sixth worst in the league and comparable to Cleveland and Havana who are hardly playing in pitcher friendly environs.  But, at least in the starting rotation, this year should be different.   Bedford landed possibly the top pitching FA, Dontrelle Willis (19-9, 3.68), in the auction and threw in Danny Haren (15-9, 4.71) and Kelvim Escobar (110-59 career) for good measure.  Jeff Weaver has pitched well here and Brett Myers was a surprising 12-10 last season with a 3.95 ERA.  So, in general, you’d think the rotation is set.  The bullpen is another matter as they could be the worst in the league, not counting Tennessee .  The only set up man is Scott Strickland, who had a 12.98 ERA last year (yikes!) and has never been that good, and closing out is John Riedling, who’s better suited to middle relief.  And the middle relief is worse if you can believe it.

Man on the Spot:

Coming out of the free agent auction I was all prepared to spell doom and gloom over the defending North Champs. But as usual, GM Mike McAvoy worked the trade wire to his advantage, adding some quality arms and making his team a contender once again. Though I'm giving a slight edge to the Crunch this year, the Dawgs could very well win their 3rd straight division crown given the quality of players on the roster. Certainly had to make some tough choices in giving up Miguel Cabrera, but in the end, this is a team that should battle for a playoff spot all year long.

For a few weeks at least it looked like we would be seeing Choi and Miggy Cabrera in the same lineup...a terrifying thought. Luckily for the rest of the North, Cabrera was shipped overseas for pitching help, but those pitchers may help the Dawgs out more in the long run. Scott Hodges, the 2B who broke the all-time hits record for Havana last year, comes in to goose the offense. Nice pickup. Three new starting pitchers and five new relievers shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone who has paid attention to Cleveland over the years. The turnover wasn't nearly as all consuming as last year, and overall I think McAvoy came out on top.

Offense:

Despite trading away Cabrera this team should still score a lot of runs. Derek Jeter is still running strong despite a few grey hairs and a solid year from him at leadoff allows Scott Hodges more RBI chances in the #2 hole. Can Hodges match his production of last year? Unlikely, but he's had great years in the past and a look back makes you scratch your head as to why Ireland ever cut him to begin with. Choi is a beast, but his success may be relative to how Sizemore and Gutierrez hit on either side of him. Both played limited roles on their teams last year but are given the opportunity to start here. Can they live up to the pressure? Not sure what you're going to get out of the bottom three, as you have an aging Paul Konerko, a relatively untested Coco Crisp, and rookie Gerald Laird. Konerko may do okay considering he actually hit well for the Rebels last year, but they might need another bat before all is said and done but overall, the lineup is in pretty decent shape.

Pitching:

For a little while it looked like we were going to see Peavy and the scrubs, but McAvoy patched things up in a hurry and now the rotation is solid 1 through 5. I'm pretty shocked that Peavy isn't the Opening Day starter considering his 18 wins, 3.24 ERA and .217 OpAvg all lead the team. Niemann is pretty good, however, and now with the return of Jeremy Sowers and the addition of Dennis Tankersly and Runelvys Hernandez, the team has some confidence that they won't endure any long losing streaks. The rotation certainly has the potential to be better than last year when Haren, Ramirez and Wainwright got a large share of the starts. It's really hard to predict what the bullpen will do. Billy Koch follows up arguably his best season, Scotland closer Kyle Farnsworth comes on board and Ellas' mainstay Erasmo Ramirez is the new setup man. But the team will surely miss Braden Looper and Brock Landers. The long relievers have to be some sort of sick joke.

Man on the Spot:

Have to go with Grady Sizemore here. The guy is asked to bat #3 despite a limited role for SAV last year. His career numbers are pretty decent (.294, 64, 218 in 2000 AB's) though that type of run production won't be enough if the team plans to really bust out the runs. 

Give credit where credit is due, Mike McAvoy has guided the Dawgs to first place two years in a row despite a crimped payroll by making savvy trades and never giving up on the season.  I suppose I should stop doubting, but here I am saying, “No way can they pull it off again.”  While the starting pitching isn’t awful, they aren’t top shelf and this team is underpowered compared to some others.  Still, two averages can equal pretty good in the end.  I doubt this team is bad, they could make the playoffs certainly, but I really don’t see them as capable of winning it all even if things break their way.

Off Season Analysis:

Busy as usual.  The Dawgs made re-signing Miguel Cabrera their top priority and, in typical fashion, then traded him for pitching in a deal that looks pretty advantageous to Cleveland from my perspective.  Their biggest acquisition was Hee-Seop Choi, who can dominate when he’s hot.  Also picked up Scott Hodges who had a career year in 2011.  Of course, they lost a lot of people, too, and Derrek Lee, Braden Looper and Danny Haren are some big shoes to fill. 

Offense:

Until you get down to Gerald Laird, there’s nobody who’s below average at their position but there’s only one MVP-quality guy, Hee-Seop Choi.  Derek Jeter did well enough leading off for these guys last year, scoring 115 runs and stealing 48 bases.  If Scott Hodges repeats 2011, they have a terrific table setting duo.  Grady Sizemore had a .464 SLG last year in limited play and isn’t the most convincing 3-hitter in baseball.  Same could be said of Gutierrez, Konerko and Drew, though they could just as easily be about as good as anybody else’s 5-7.  Gerald Laird could be on the Mendoza line, but he’s a catcher, whaddya want?

Pitching:

They’re probably better than I think they are, but whether that spells first place or not, I don’t know.  Jeff Niemann (14-8, 3.65) gets the opening day job, but Jake Peavy (18-7, 3.24) is the team’s ace.  Add in Jeremy Sowers (11-10, 3.33) and Dennis Tankersley (7-11, 3.62) and you’ve got a pretty solid staff.  Runelvys Hernandez is iffy, but he’s probably as good as anybody else’s 5^th starter.  The bullpen has the potential to be really bad.  Kyle Farnsworth, who has good but hittable stuff is closing despite his 5.85 ERA last year.  Koch and Erasmo have the set up duties and both are generally OK, but have in any given year gotten tagged pretty good, so no guarantees there.  The middle and long relief could be really crappy.  Russ Ortiz and Oliver Perez are barely major league arms and Chad Bradford and Gerardo Garcia both had ERAs north of 5.50.  Uh-oh.

Man on the Spot:

Once upon a time, the North Division was owned by the Halifax Sailors. But that was then, and now, after two straight seasons out of first, the team is struggling to keep together their fan base and keep up in the increasingly competitive division. The team wasn't bad last year considering that they lost TJ Mackey and Delmon Young for practically the entire season, but expecting their regained health will turn the team around is probably too much to ask for. There are some glaring weaknesses in these lineups that need to be addressed before Halifax is once again considered a team that can contend for the championship.

One look at the "Key Additions" line above might tell you why I'm predicting this team to finish third. After losing nearly $10 million in payroll after two years out of the post season, management had to spend most of the cash retaining Prince Fielder and filling out the roster. In the meantime, five key players walked and the lineups are weaker because of it. Not too good.

Offense:

The opening weeks of 2011 were about as disastrous as you can get for a team. Mackey and Young, arguably two of the best three hitters on the team, both went down for the long run, more or less crippling the offense (Ellas can relate). The guys who remained did their very best to keep the team afloat, with Prince Fielder having a huge year and guys like Barfield, Burroughs and Koonce chipping in. The return of Young and Mackey is almost like getting two big bats in a trade for Opening Day, and if everyone stays healthy (big if) this team can put a whipping on some people. Second year CF Joseph Dyche looks good to match his good numbers from last year, while Elmer Davie and Jon Poterson look to stretch their part time success into full time production. There is a lot of potential in the lineup, it's just a matter of whether a lot of part time players can keep it up over 162 games.

Pitching:

Wow, what happened here? The payroll crunch really took a bit out of this rotation, as after perennial Cy Young candidates Sabathia and Beckett there is a dramatic drop off. Horcio Ramirez at #3? Good Lord. Ridener and Hanrahan? You must be kidding. Not the names that will make you forget Morris, Escobar and Zito any time soon. But it looks like that's what they are stuck with unless Cain plans to break the bank again. A potentially good pen with the return of Old Man Benitez and Gatsby and Hansen. Paul. Phillips had a great spring but last year's numbers tell a different story.

Man on the Spot:

Horacio Ramirez. Congrats, man, you played your way into the middle of the rotation. But no #3 starter is on thinner ice than you.

The Sailors 2011 season was a colossal failure.  Cash plus trades took the team’s salary to a bloated $106milion and they still barely stayed out of last.  On a money per win scale they might have been the worst team in SLB history.  But, to be fair, they vied with Ellas for the worst injuries in the league, so they have an excuse and that makes it hard to make predictions for Halifax since you don’t know what they would have been capable of if healthy.  Still, last year’s financial fiasco has forced some belt-tightening and based on that, they have 3 starting pitchers and 2 lead off men I don’t have much faith in, so I can’t see this team being any better than third.

Off Season Analysis:

The bloated contracts they took on as part of their “screw the cap” strategy came back to bite them as they were hard pressed to re-sign their own talent and had nothing left to go out and get any impact FAs.  Prince Fielder was the first name called out at their auction and the Sailors had to pony up $9mil to keep him, a 125% raise.  They got Graham Koonce, a player with tempting power who was underused in Paris , on the cheap, only $2.5mil.  Probably overspent on Armando Benitez, but there was a little desperation there.  Not having the dough to get Escobar and Morris back will probably be the biggest story.

Offense:

The heart of the order, Delmon Young, Prince Fielder and vs. R Graham Koonce is as intimidating as anybody’s lineup.  Delmon Young, when he’s not hurt or going mental, has MVP talent and put up a .581 SLG in his abbreviated 2011 season.  Prince Fielder narrowly lost the HR title to Josh Hamilton, knocking 53 out of the yard, but his avg. was not so impressive.  Koonce has 50 HR power, too.  Things are a little more iffy at the top of the order where Joseph Dyche, who did manage .318 last year but only has 258 career at bats and T.J. Mackey, who’s struggled to prove himself at the major league level.  Throw in Elmer Davie, also untested, and Sean Burroughs, who did not make the transition from warm, happy Athens to cold, damp Halifax well and you’ve got some issues.  John Poterson hit .282 last year, but probably won’t again, meaning Halifax joins the “can’t hit catcher” club.

Pitching:

Usually this is the team’s rock but this season could be different.  The 1-2 guys won’t be a problem as Beckett (16-10, 3.05) and CC Sabathia (15-10, 3.16) are pretty much a lock for 30 wins.  But Horacio Ramirez (career 5.28 ERA),  Joel Hanrahan (career 4.90, but good last year) and Eric Ridener (best not said) are not the guys I think you can bank on if you want to win your division.  The bullpen is feast-or-famine.  Middle relievers Orber Moreno and Michiko Towaki both got shellacked last season, but Hansen, Gatsby and Benitez are possibly the best in the league 7^th inning on.  No lefties in the pen, which means managing choices are severely constrained.

Man on the Spot:

The poor Phynatics. They were right there in the division race right up until the end, tied for last with Bedford going into game 162. But that final loss cost them $4 million in payroll and ultimately may mean a step backwards in 2012. Ownership is hoping that a team name change can help retain fan interest, but another last place finish could be devastating for a team that hasn't been to the postseason since 2005. Can GM Brian B make some clever trades to at least ensure a 3rd place finish? 

Added some offense. Wily Mo Pena could be very valuable if he has an "on" season, but neither Mauer nor Crosby has distinguished themselves as reliable hitters. Edwin Jackson probably won't be missed, especially not for the money Baltimore paid him.

Offense:

Should be decent but not great. Will Hunting was fantastic last year and Hank Blalock finally had a great year for Philly. Add in Wily Mo Pena and you have your prerequisite solid 3-4-5 hitters. Carl Crawford finally decided to hit last year and as long as he doesn't regress, his .280 average and 55 steals will be enough at leadoff. Val Passucci was retained after most teams passed on him in the auction. This guy is one of the most underrated players in SLB, especially since he plays a typically non-hitting position. He might flirt with 100 RBI this year if all goes well. A fair share of question marks with guys like Wiggington, Tonis and Brazell low in the order. Will Joe Mauer hit here or will he continue to be the prospect that never figured it out?

Pitching:

Philly has sort of turned into the new Bedford. The rotation is populated by #3 or #4 starters but all seem to do well on this team. Brad Penny is not what most would consider an ace, but he won 16 games here in 2011 and kept his ERA under 4.00. Marquis and (shocker) Guthrie also had ERA's in the 3.65 range, and if they can repeat those numbers, things should be in pretty good shape. It's a no-name bullpen but one that may surprise. Havana is still kicking itself over letting Trest get away in last year's Rule 5 draft while Dante Inferno continues to be an inexpensive option at closer. Not sure what Bemiel or Roberts will give you (if anything). There is no pretty way to paint David Riske and his 6.91 career ERA.

Man on the Spot:

Rookie Cooper Osteen is asked to either leadoff or bat 2nd for this lineup. I'm not sure he's up to the task. 

Damn, tell me you weren’t rooting for this team last year?  I know I was, but, despite surprisingly hanging around all season, the Fever (last season Phynatics) tanked in the last couple of weeks and finished with another heartbreaking last place, despite a respectable 82-80 season.  Successive seasons in last have knocked this once flush franchise into below average salary cap territory which has really thwarted efforts to build a competitive team (though Mike McAvoy wins with the same budget).  Sadly, I don’t see this team building on last year’s achievements and probably will regress rather than progress in 2012.

Off Season Analysis:

Very uneventful which in this case equals bad.  The Fever needed to sign an impact player and they couldn’t get it done.  They gained Wily Mo Pena, swapped average quality SS and picked up a couple of marginal players.  Left $4mil in the bank, which probably should have been spent on a hitter.

Offense:

Their 2011 numbers would seem to say they aren’t so bad, with 768 runs scored putting them in the territory of Ireland somewhere in the middle of the pack and they added a talented athlete in Wily Mo Pena, but looking over the batting order, I’d think they might be the worst in the division, if not the league by virtue of the Thunder.  Carl Crawford, who can burn up the basepaths but not much else, and Cooper Osteen a raw rookie are going to be the table setters.  Not convincing.  Will Hunting in the 3 slot didn’t lose a beat transferring from the Flyers putting up a wicked .320/37/135 season, earning him the North Division MVP.  Pena was back “on” again last year hitting .311 and landing in the 30/30 club.  But you can’t bank on that with him.  Blalock hitting 5^th should be good for 30 HR and 100 RBI, though he’s not the best guy in that slot in the league.  Then you’ve got some sub-par guys in the back of the order with Crosby, Pasucci, Mauer, et. al.  Can this bunch really get the job done?  I’m not sold.

Pitching:

Nor am I sold on this pitching staff.  Brad Penny had a comeback of sorts in 2011 going 16-12 with a 3.79 ERA, but his history is spotty at best.  Ditto for Brandon Webb who could be Cy Young material or lose 15 games in equal probability.  Jason Marquis had a fine 3.73 ERA but went 6-11 thanks to poor run support.  Then you’ve got the two Jeremys.  Affeldt had a 3.61 ERA, Guthrie a 4.98, but those could be swapped around, both worse, both better this year.  Who knows?  The no-name bullpen seems about consistent with the rest of the division.  Last year Calvin Trest proved himself to be the jewel of the Rule V draft and Joe Bemiel pitched 8 and 2/3 scoreless innings—it’s a funny game, ain’t it?—and you could get decent ball out of Riske and Inferno.  But, again, any of those guys could just as soon get lit up for a 7.00 ERA this season.

Man on the Spot:

If ever there was a case of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it," it's the defending World Champs. Despite a pretty healthy jump in payroll this season, GM Jim Masters did very little tinkering with his Flyer squad, and who can blame him? The team won it's first division title and followed with an unlikely, come-from-behind win over Ireland in the World Series. The offense was extraordinarily good and the pitching was right there with it. And with the core of the team still under contract for at least a few more seasons, the window of opportunity is wide open. As the saying goes, "Don't mess with success."

Let Johan Santana chase the money to London, but added Matt Morris. Added Kelly Wunsch. That is the only change to the starting lineups from a year ago. The increase in cap covered the raises due to all of the arbitration guys, and Lemming's MVP bonus may be the reason we see some rookies on the bench. Not a very eventful winter, but it didn't need to be.

Offense:

A year older, a year better? The league better hope not. The core of this lineup is among the best in the league, lead by ROY turned MVP Darren Lemming in CF. All he hit was .348/.412/.670 with 48 2B, 15 3B, 45 HR, 112 RBI, and 54 SB. Then there's Dennis Dennis Jr., the Pippen to Lemming's Jordan, who may have been right there with him in the voting had he not missed a few weeks. The surprising Eric Valent (who knew he could hit outside of Paris?) and Morgan Ensberg also pushed 90 RBI, while overall, all eight of the starting hitters batted at least .279 with at least 54 RBI. And they are all back this year. 

Pitching:

The Flyers won the most games of anyone in the league last year while only getting 19 starts out of Carlos Zambrano. Scary, ain't it? Big Z, Prior, and Homer "don't call me David" Bailey rank among the best starting three in the league right now, with Bailey an odds on favorite to take home a Cy Young or three before his career is over. Johan Santana took his 16-10 record to London, but Matt Morris (coming off a disappointing year in Halifax) replaces him in the #4 spot in the order. Last year's bullpen was entirely unimpressive, but only lefty setup man Kelly Wunsch was added this year. Didn't seem to hurt them too badly in the long run.

Man on the Spot:

For lack of a better choice I'll go with Morris. He's the only significant new face on the team and won just 8 games last year. Truthfully, I don't think there is any one player who can make or break the season here. 

I guess Jim Masters does really know what he’s doing.  Damnit.  Oh well, at least we had a few years to kick him around before he started filling up the trophy case with World Championships.  The odds makers are probably pegging this team to repeat and begin the “dynasty” discussion, but I’m not sure they can pull it off again.  This isn’t a team without a few holes.  Regardless, there’s no way this team doesn’t win 90 games and when you can take Zambrano, Prior and Homer Bailey to the post season, you likes your chances.

Off Season Analysis:

Not much changed, but if you had to weigh the scales, you’d probably say they came out on the losing end.  Wunsch for Runelvys is a wash, Matt Morris for Johan Santana seems to be a decided decline.  Got Lidge back at a steep price, but he wasn’t cheap before. 

Offense:

They were expected to be the best in the league last year and would have been had not Havana gone berserk.  Expect them to be in the top 3 at least in 2012.  Darren Lemming surprised no one in winning the MVP with a torrid .348/45/112 season with 54 SB tossed in for good measure.  No reason he can’t repeat that.  Dennis Dennis, Jr. is capable of hitting over .350 and he hit 65 doubles in only 139 games.  Jerry Hairston, Jr. is the “weak” hitter, hitting .277 and Brad Fullmer probably isn’t headed to the All-Star game at 1B, but there are really no easy outs here. 

Pitching:

Again, you could make the case they are the best in the league on superstar name value alone, but a team 4.31 ERA in 2011 shows at least somebody is giving up runs somewhere.  Zambrano, Prior and Bailey are hands down the best 1-3 in the league and it would surprise me none to see them finish 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd in the Cy Young voting at the end of the year.  Morris and Mahara are a different story though, as both had ERAs over 4.75 and could be sub .500 pitchers.   The bullpen is, frankly, really bad.  Brad Lidge somehow got paid $5.5mil after putting up a 5.51 ERA in 2011.  I guess he gets the job done, ugly though it may be.  Kelly Wunsch has a career 3.56 ERA and should improve things a bit.  The rest of the pen varies from bad to just plain awful.  Still, they usually get handed a safe lead or find themselves beneficiaries of late inning rallies. 

Man on the Spot:

2011 was, in short, an inexcusably awful season for Baltimore. Despite sporting such great players as Guerrero, Pujols, Wright and Willis, only the tee-ball all-stars in Knoxville kept the Panthers from being the worst team in the league. The reason? The role players (ie the other 20 or so players on the roster) were abysmal. Catastrophically terrible. Pathetic. Get the point? GM Jose Gutierrez has been heard to say he thinks this team can be in the playoffs in 2012. But until I see this team even break .500 I'm not buying it. If the team sucks again, someone better figure out why in a hurry, because the Thunder won't be around to keep anyone out of last place in the South anymore.

Confusing at best, misguided at worst. Gutierrez let Willis (who won 19 of the team's 64 wins in 2011) go for under market value, then overreacted to their bad bullpen situation by throwing bags of cash at mediocre arms like Drysden and Jackson. Paid almost as much for a closer (K-Rod) as they could have for Willis (though smartly traded him away for starting pitching...we'll give credit where it's due). Added some better arms to the starting rotation (who couldn't pitch better than Francis Beltran?) including Kyle Lohse and Barry Zito. How do the Panther fans feel about the Pujols for McPherson deal?

Offense:

We know one thing about this lineup: they can steal bases. 263 of them last year, to be exact, including an inexplicable 70 from slugger Vladimir Guerrero. Guerrero and Pujols were All-Star caliber sluggers in this lineup, though with Pujols gone, an undue strain will be put on Vladdy to drive in all the big runs. Wright had decent run production but couldn't keep his average up, while a gaggle of .240-.260 hitters filled out the rest of the spots. Dallas McPherson is the new cleanup guy, though many are worried that he was another "Paris only" producer. I mean, if you couldn't drive in 100 on Havana last year, what hope do you have in Baltimore, right? 

Pitching:

Last year it was Willis, then Pavano, then 13 or 14 bags of crap. Seriously, you'd be hard pressed to find a bigger suckfest of pitching (outside of Tennessee) then some of the guys Baltimore ran out there every 5th day. Guzman? Beltran? Kawabata? The bullpen alone accounted for a staggering 45 losses in 2011 (likely causing the panicked spend fest on relievers this year). All of this in an enormous, pitcher friendly ballpark. Does anyone think that the newly wealthy Don Drysden and Edwin Jackson are going to shore up this pen? Can any of the spring training numbers be believed? 

Man on the Spot:

Oh jeez, uh, okay. McPherson. The guy was MVP quality in Paris, but drove in just 78 runs in Havana last year. Is he due for a rebound, or will his decline accelerate in Baltimore? 

With apologies, I think the objective truth is GM Jose Gutierrez has run this team into the ground.  From a .500 2007 season, the Panthers have been below .500 four years in a row, last twice, 4^th twice and in 2011 a completely inexcusable 64-98.   Tennessee should keep them out of last this year, but when that team picks up stakes and moves to Asia , the Panthers risk becoming the London of the South Division if they don’t make some better front office decisions.  On paper the offense is still capable and they made numerous pitching changes, which can’t but help, however, all things considered, they no longer get the benefit of the doubt and I’m not predicting this team to be over .500 again since doing so had burned me the last couple of Heaters.  At least they have the benefit of going into the season with low expectations, which may mean they can exceed those.

Off Season Analysis:

I already see what Darin wrote here, for once, and I’m in complete agreement.  Letting Willis go seems just dumb and spending, what?, $15mil or so on Jackson , Drysden and K-Rod is hard to justify when they probably pitch 150 innings total when Willis gave you 229.  Lohse, Wolf and Zito are collectively, roughly, career .500 pitchers, which, I guess, for this team is heading in the right direction.  The trade of McPherson for Pujols seems reasonable given the positions McPherson can play for you. 

Offense:

This is the ultimate “on-paper” offense.  You’d think Vladdy, David Wright, Dallas McPherson, and last year’s big surprise, Paul Matthew, would mean some serious production, but a similar bunch only hit a paltry .266 as a team last year and were 4^th worst in front of Scotland , Savannah and asterisk Tennessee .  The team seems poised to play another year of “Billy Ball” where all baserunners have a perpetual green light.  263 team SB lead SLB by a mile but that meant weak HR production.  The guys at the top of the lineup, C-Pat and Matthew have to have stellar seasons for this team to get past that .500 barrier.  Matthew proved he can hit last year, batting .314 with an above .500 SLG and he gets to move to 2^nd in the order for which he’s better suited than 3^rd.  McPherson and Vladimir Guerrero are expected to do well in the middle of the lineup provided last year’s weak season for Dallas was a fluke and I think it was.  But the 6-9 hitters, Gomes, Coogan and Castro constitute the biggest block of easy outs on any team outside, of course, Tennessee .  Therein lies your back of the pack offensive stats.

Pitching:

Last year they were just frickin’ terrible.  A team 4.88 ERA, only better than Paris and Tennessee (I’m getting tired of writing that phrase), is misleading since Dontrelle Willis singlehandedly dropped probably .20 off that.  And he’s gone.  Still, I predict they’ll be better this year, probably more like 4.70 thanks to adding inning eating starters and some decent bullpen arms.  Honestly all five starters are capable of having records over .500, so at least nobody’s an embarrassment, but there’s also no ace in the pack. 

Man on the Spot:

No one was more surprised by the Diablos' 89 win season than GM Darin Keesing. With several huge question marks in the rotation and a handful of last minute signings to fill the lineup card, it was unknown if the team would even break .500. But then someone started putting something in the team Gatorade cooler, as the team's offense went apeshit scoring more than enough runs for a more or less average pitching staff. Though half of the names have changed, the starting offense looks just as dangerous this year, and with upgrades to the rotation and bullpen, Havana once again looks like a playoff contender. Could they take back their division crown from Atlanta? It's certainly possible, and if not, the wildcard looks to be theirs for the taking.

Keesing doesn't sweat player turnover, so he simply replaced the departed Berkman, Beltran, Hodges and Huff with Hamilton, Matsui, Utley and Bradley. No problem, right? Mark Mulder is the first ace the team has had since Johan Santana, and his presence bumps guys like Brownlie and Beltre from #1 and #2 in the rotation to #3 and #4.  Kevin Millwood, who had some big games for Bedford in the second half last year, was acquired during Spring Training and will pitch behind Mulder. Albert Pujols was added fairly late in the spring and could be the biggest acquisition of them all.

Offense:

Last year's offense was nuts, but could it actually be better in 2012? Scary thought, we know, but Pujols, Hamilton and Dalton all had MVP caliber seasons last year and now they're in the same lineup. Milton Bradley is a solid #2 hitter, while Chase Utley is a great replacement for Hodges (though is unlikely to get 250 hits like the guy he's replacing). Matt Bush was the AAA MVP last year but looked uncomfortable in spring training. Is he ready to be a leadoff hitter in the majors? Hideki Matsui and his rubber arm was converted to first base while Pujols will man third. This isn't what you'd call a solid defensive team by any stretch, but who needs double plays when you score 8 runs a game? 

Pitching:

It will be better than a year ago. Despite some pretty poor numbers by Brush, Asher and Bush last year, the team still managed a decent 4.81 team ERA, and now with some actual good pitchers on hand, that number should drop. Mulder and Millwood are upgrades, and Bobby Brownlie (who won 18 games last year) is more than capable at #3. Zach Greinke was a surprisingly reliable addition last year and makes for a better than average back of the rotation guy. The bullpen quite frankly, isn't much to write home about. Larry Brush, who failed miserably as a starter last year, was slated for AAA before turning in a promising spring campaign. Francisco Cordero gets a 2nd chance in Havana after a terrible season the first go round. And watch for 34 year old rookie Chris Mears! Scared yet?

Man on the Spot:

You could pick one of Beltre, Millwood or Greinke. All three pitched better than expected last year, but a big drop in any of their numbers could be disastrous, as Havana's pitching depth is a big concern. I'm not sure anyone wants to see a significant number of starts from Mexico or Striker any time soon. 

Frankly, I have no idea how to make a prediction for this team.  For some reason (commie baseball tampering) Havana looked like Mexico City in terms of goofy numbers last year as the Diablos hit the snot out of the ball but didn’t pitch all that great either.  GM Darin Keesing deserved some kind of award for plucking Carlos Beltran and Scott Hodges off the FA pile and turning them into MVP candidates, but both were on one year deals and are gone now.  What’s that mean?  Couldn’t tell ya.  Mark Mulder has looked like an ace some years and a Goat others.  Pujols, Josh Hamilton and Eric Dalton could combine for 160 HR.  Or not.  I’m guessing these guys are the Wildcard, but guess is certainly the word.

Off Season Analysis:

I’d grade it about a “B.”  They inked Mark Mulder to a $9mil/year deal in hopes of having the lefty ace they’ve lacked since Johan Santana was shipped off.  I like the Pujols for McPherson deal which seems to benefit both teams as Baltimore can use Dallas ’s versatility and Pujols, who’s languished on mediocre teams could go absolutely crazy in Havana .  They put a new outfield together in Matsui, Hamilton and Milton Bradley.  All of them have had monster years.  The Utley for Hodges is a wash.  They are gambling on Millwood, but why not?  If there’s a knock it’s that they didn’t do much to improve the bullpen.

Offense:

They were Paris-like in 2011, but for reasons unknown.  They finished with 9% more offense than the next highest team, Atlanta , which in this league, characterized by parity, is astounding.  If that wasn’t something in the water, there’s no reason they can’t do it again this year.  A lot of teams are kicking themselves for giving up on Eric Dalton, who languished in the minors for several years before running away with the ROY voting last year after a .313/51/127 season.  Josh Hamilton did lead the league in HR last year, on Ireland , so god knows what he’ll do here.  Pujols, as mentioned above, could also chip in 50 HR in a potent offense where he’ll get some more AB.  Milton Bradley hit .343 last year—on Bedford .  Matsui is an occasional MVP candidate.  Utley has a career .560 SLG.  Victor Martinez hit .344 last year for no good reason, given he was about a .260 career hitter before.  Get the picture?  OK, so the only guy you wonder about is Matt Bush who is a .246 career hitter and gets a major responsibility to lead off.

Pitching:

To give you an idea of the kind of year 2011 was for the Diablos, Bobby Browlie went 18-8 with a 4.74 ERA.  Same pretty much for Beltre and Brush managed to be a .500 pitcher despite a 6.47 ERA.  Hmmm.  Well, that bodes well for Mark Mulder who has a career 3.99 ERA.  If you know what Kevin Millwood will do, bless ya, ‘cause I sure don’t.  Could win 20, could have an ERA of 6.66.  The pen is hard to predict, too.  Scott Stewart and Brendan Donnelly were good last year, but are hardly sure things.  Francisco Cordero has had a solid career and should be among the league leaders in saves.  Middle relief is an adventure, but what’s new there?

Man on the Spot:

"Team Mediocre" returns for yet another run at 3rd place in the South. Sound harsh? Well consider that the team has never won 90 games, has never been to the playoffs, and every year manages to lose a little more than they gain. Is it time for a wholesale change in Savannah? It seems like the bulk of this roster has been around forever but they aren't going anywhere. Maybe expansion can be the catalyst to shake this thing up....if GM Richard Vohs is up for it, of course. He may very well have other plans.

Lost Choi and Mulder, gained Valverde. Not a very good trade. Vohs added some role players (Uribe, Gibbons, Pierzynski) but the team is more or less a carbon copy of the 2011 roster, only a little less good. Looks like it will take some players stepping it up just to reach 82 wins again.

Offense:

We've seen these faces before. Dunn, Hawpe, Linden, Erstad....decent, but no stars. To be fair, Dunn had a monster year in '11, sluggging 47 HR and 108 RBI, but without Choi on the squad, he's a one man show. The next highest RBI total (Hawpe) was just 63, and it went downhill from there. So who is going to step it up? Todd Linden slugged .540 in limited action (and had a good spring) so maybe he's ready to be a major player. Maybe Jay Gibbons can turn in one of his .330 hitting seasons. Whatever the case, this offense is far from complete and won't make too many opposing pitchers lose much sleep.

Pitching:

2011's Saber team had some good to excellent starting pitching coupled with one of the worst bullpens in the league. Mark Mulder's team leading 16 wins are now in Havana, leaving Roy Oswalt, Roy Halladay and Phillip Humber to lead the rotation. These guys are All-Star quality, but can the rest of the staff pick them up? Eric Gagne needs to return to his Rolaids Reliever form (after posting an ugly 5.65 ERA a year ago) and newcomer Jose Valverde needs to stabilize a sorry pen. To Vohs' credit, the holdovers from last season's relief corps were the best (with most of the losers shipped to toil away in Tampa). I think this team can go as far as the pitching will take them.

Man on the Spot:

I'll go with Todd Linden here. He was effective in part time play a year ago, performed great in March, and now bats #2 in a lineup desperate for run production. If he can put up a .300/.370/.520 type line this offense may be better than predicted. 

Could you tell me why I should even bother to write this?  I mean, I might as well just cut and paste from any of, like, the last 4 years.  1-3 starters are good, 4 and 5 aren’t.  Yup.  Bullpen is above average, offense is a joke.  Yup.  Same shit different year.  Third place, take it to the bank.

Off Season Analysis:

I think GM Rich Vohs missed the live auction, so I’ll cut him some slack, but still, you lose Choi and Mulder and pick up Valverde, Gibbons, Cuddyer, Pierzynski.  Not the sort of action you think is going to change your spot in the standings is it?  Also left about $10mil unspent. 

Offense:

Just wretched.  They only scored 729 runs last year and I’ll take the under on the over/under for that number in 2012.  They sucked with Choi and now he’s gone—so you tell me how this team is better than anybody but Tennessee (there’s that phrase again).  OK, Adam Dunn flirted with 50 HR last year and Todd Linden showed some promise.  But Brad Hawpe, .707 OPS in 2011, is your #3 hitter.  Ouch.  Crappy platoons at 2B and C.  Mediocrity everywhere else.  Hopeless.

Pitching:

Oswalt (13-11, 3.17) and Halladay (14-10, 2.96) give you all you could ask for.   Humber had a bit of an off year in 2011, but he could easily be a 15 game winner (but won’t be because his run support will blow).  Mulder helped give this team a top shelf rotation last year but he’s gone and replaced by Carlos Hernandez, who won’t be making up Mulder’s numbers.  Shawn Chacon is not good.  You’d think Eric Gagne would be a top closer, but last year he had an ugly 5.65 ERA.  Not that anybody in the pen is any better.

Man on the Spot:

I don't feel bad picking this team last. Not one bit. GM Ben Royer's rebuilding plan is staying true and with it comes some ugly seasons. But the hope is that the struggles will pay off down the road as the wheat gets separated from the chaff and the roster grows into a contender. It looks like the front office kept the right guys and cut the dead weight, producing a roster that is starting to resemble what we might see down the road. Will management start spending the surplus payroll money next year when they move the team to Thailand? That remains to be seen, but for now, put your money on the Thunder to once again finish dead last in the league. 

What can you say, really? Most of the moves were internal, sending away those players who clearly had no future (we're looking at you James Brauer) while filling the 40-man with one-year, stop-gap contracts (damn that's a lot of hyphens). The biggest signing was Aubrey Huff, but frankly, I'm surprised he made it through the spring without being traded. He's one key injury away from being some team's hero.

Offense:

It's a pretty good start to a young lineup that will grow better over the next few seasons. Joseph "Mr. Extra Base Hit" Kemp is at the top of the order looking to defend his unreal triples record from a year ago. He's a line drive hitter with warning track power and always looks to take the extra base. Murman and Montana combined for 82 HR and 186 RBI despite some iffy hitting numbers (which didn't look to be improving in spring training) and the double play combo of Bluege and Gaston are also productive. Bluege better learn a new position, however, as it's almost a foregone conclusion that the team will add Patrick "Cap" Jackson this June. Wilson and Lipton earned opening day spots this spring while Huff will play third before his inevitable departure.

Pitching:

They are some of the top prospects from recent drafts but don't expect them to be dazzling quite yet. Romero, Lambert, Kuo and Asher have all been highly touted arms, but at this stage of their development are as likely to cough up 10 runs as they are a shutout. Andrew Allen was 3-14 last year so don't expect much there, and the bullpen was altogether horrible in 2011 and have added little to nothing to solve that. Still, the bullpen is usually the last thing to get worked out (ask Atlanta) so we won't sweat the late innings just yet. If management sees some progress from the young starters this year, consider it a success. 

Man on the Spot:

Tough to pin any sort of pressure on any of these guys since the goal this year isn't winning. I guess Huff needs to hit well in order to keep up his trade value. 

All right, we were willing to praise Ben Royer for going all the way with the rebuilding strategy last year, but he seems determined to do the same thing again, and that’s just dumb.  First of all, this team doesn’t have anybody left to trade, so that’s not going to work.  Second, another $4mil loss will hurt and some good FA spending might have gotten them out of last given that Savannah and Baltimore are hardly unbeatable.  Third, presuming the plan is to try to be competing in a year or two when this team is in Thailand , they’re going to be in a division with Havana and Ellas.  Good luck with that.  So why not try this season?  Shame on you.

Off Season Analysis:

Did nothing with bags of cash.  Finally signed Huff, Millwood and Cotts out of boredom but traded the latter for Paul Witt and David Asher.  Stupid.  They added few guys on one year deals, which I guess makes sense given the upcoming expansion draft and the issue of protecting players.  Still, there was about $50million worth of wasted opportunities in that auction.  Gets you an “F.”

Offense:

Aubrey Huff is the best guy here, but chances of him staying into June are about zip.  Joseph Kemp had an unexpected season shattering the triples record and finishing with 84 extra base hits.  He’s a keeper.  The rookies to watch are Lipton and Wilson, who both have some real potential.  Thurman and Montana are catchers cut from the same mold, all-or-nothing.  While they will team up for 80 HR, their SLG in the .470s last year doesn’t mean they are superstars given that Kemp’s was .501.  The rest is chaff.

Pitching:

If there’s any reason to watch this joke of a team it’s the chance to see some exciting young pitchers who, if they pan out, will be on the field for many years and give the Thunder the freedom to go on a spending spree for bats one day.  Hong-Chih Kuo finally got a real shot after 7 years in the minors, including some spectacular ones, and made the most of it.  Christopher Lambert started out hot then cooled down to a 7-9 record with a 5.21 ERA.  But he still looks like a plausible 4^th starter down the road.  Ric Romero had three great starts in a September call up and should be the favorite for ROY pitcher in a weak class.  Or it could be David Asher.  Add in Kevin Thompson, last year’s #1 overall pick who will spend this year in the minors from the looks of it and the future looks bright from the rotation side.  The bullpen is uniformly shitty, don’t even bother asking me to comment on anyone individually.

Man on the Spot:

When a team can win its division without its two best hitters, you know it has to be good. GM Tom Hey hopes the team won't have to repeat that feat in 2012 as the team crosses its fingers for a healthy season. If it does stay intact, this offense will score runs in bunches, and with quality pitching in both the rotation and bullpen, the Evzones have one of the most well-rounded teams in the league. Will that World Series appearance still remain out of reach? Or will Athens finally get a championship to celebrate (just before the team bolts town)?

Hey succeeded in his main goal of re-upping with Miller and A-Rod, then added hitting depth in Wilson, Lee and Varitek. Derrek Lee could really be a big addition as the former MVP candidate bats 6th behind the two bruisers. Only lost one reliever (Ramirez) but he wasn't that great in 2011 anyways. 

Offense:

Be afraid, be very, very afraid. Chest Rockwell and Dave Peppers could easily combine for 110 HR and 150 RBI this year if they can stay on the field and out of the trainers room. Last year Peppers missed half the season but managed to hit 25 HR and 76 RBI (that's better than most of the fulltime Sabers). Records may be broken, folks. In all our adoration for the corner infielders let us not forget that A-Rod and Coon are also capable of driving in 100 themselves, plus Lee and Wilson...insane. Estrada and Utley may be missed; the novelty of a speedy catcher leading off may wear off quickly if he can't hit his weight. 

Pitching:

A starting rotation that won 73 games returns intact. Wade Miller gets the opening day start despite the fact that Kerry Wood and John Webb were better a year ago. Webb was the big story on this team, emerging out of obscurity to lead his team in victories and win the Comeback Player award. I guess pitching coach Pascual Perez figured that if Jason Jennings could succeed without a fastball, why not Webb? This may be the last hurrah for this rotation with three of the guys filing for free agency at the end of this season. Will they all up their efforts in hopes of a big payday? The bullpen is solid, especially in the late innings with Urbina and Wagner. The only real question mark is rookie Floyd Norrick, but he looked fantastic in spring training and so deserves a look at the very least.

Man on the Spot:

Kyle Dahlberg. The rookie backstop is fast but had a horrible spring and is expected to leadoff here. If he fails, manager Kirt Rambis will likely have to put one of his run producers into the leadoff spot; not an ideal situation to be facing. 

Last season was the best in franchise history for the Evzones.  They won the division for the first time and ended up with the best record in the league.  Alas, they weren’t able to go into October healthy and got swept out of the first round of the playoffs, but given the team history, that doesn’t negate a great 2011.  But, yes, now more is expected.  And, given that my days of providing the whammy for whoever I pick to win the World Series may be over, I’ll go with the Evzones to finally bring home a championship for GM Tom Hey.

Off Season Analysis:

The Greeks got their biggest FAs, Wade Miller and A-Rod inked, but they had to let go Johnny Estrada and Chase Utley who had both provided production from typically weak positions.  They think two rookies can take up that slack, but that’s risky.  On the other hand, they did land another of the league’s best right handed bats, Derrek Lee, so it would seem they broke even, at least, and possibly improved.  Pretty nice job given a fairly expensive crop of FAs.

Offense:

The Evzones have never had trouble getting runs over the plate and this year is not likely to be any different.  They were only sixth in the league in runs scored last season, which is low for this franchise which was usually in the top three.  On the other hand, Dave Peppers and Chest Rockwell were both out for nearly the whole season, so 100 HR was on the DL.  Take those two, add in Derrek Lee, of course don’t forget Alex Rodriguez and Walt Coon, and this team is likely to rough up some pitchers pretty badly if they stay healthy.  There are some big question marks going into the season, however, which wasn’t the case last year as being free of any obvious holes was a team strength.  Preston Wilson has had some rough seasons the past couple of years, but his best days were in Athens .  Can he find the old magic?  And then there are the rookies: Kyle Dahlberg and Earl Drauby.  Both are the sort of marginal talents--think Walt Coon--that Tom Hey seems to get unexpected production out of.  But if either is a bust, he’ll be hard pressed to fix a hole at 2B or C, given how thin the talent is at those spots.

Pitching:

This was what was different for the 2011 Evzones—they could actually pitch.  They had the 3^rd lowest team ERA, behind Scotland and Ireland who both play a brand of refrigerated baseball that keeps ERAs artificially low, making them arguably the best staff in the league.  Thanks to a remarkable comeback from John Webb (16-7, 3.40), who had spent the last two seasons selling tires, and the fact the Greeks’ off season bullpen investment paid dividends, the staff was solid 1-5 and all the way through the pen.  They are all back, save for swapping out Erasmo Ramirez for promising rookie Floyd Norrick.  If Webb wasn’t a fluke and age doesn’t catch up to them, they should be as good as anybody.

Man on the Spot:

Without a doubt it’s Kyle Dahlberg.  Ellas is taking a big gamble that Dahlberg can A) hit, and B) lead off.  If A fails, they are stuck with ancient Jason Varitek as the back up and if B fails they’ll have to make a trade or sit Preston Wilson in favor of Wilkin Ruan.

The Invaders were just one game away from winning it all before Atlanta stormed back to win the final three games of the World Series. It was a fine season, but one that ended with a headache of an off season that saw management have to scramble to fill the roster and try to assemble lineups for Opening Day. GM Tony Blake pulled through, and though the team could certainly have turned out worse for all the free agency woes, they certainly aren't as good as last year. It's tough to pick against this team, especially with all the pitching returning, but I think Paris and Scotland have made enough strides to pass the Invaders by. That said, you can probably book it that this is one prediction I will severely screw up.

Added nearly 20 new faces to the team after seeing a huge number of players file for free agency. Managed to get a lot of pretty good hitters on the cheap, thus alleviating a lot of the angst over how to fill a lineup card on such a small budget. In fact, the Invaders go into the season with more than their share of veterans sitting in AAA because of the success of the free agent negotiations. The losses of Podsednik, Jones, and especially Josh Hamilton will certainly take their tolls, but the pitching is intact (at least for this year) which, in the end, is probably more important.

Offense:

Plenty of new faces in the role-player slots, but the core of this lineup is back. Andruw Jones, Troy Glaus and Miguel Tejada are the key players in this offense and all look to continue their hot play from a year ago. Jones and Glaus both topped 100 RBI (with Jones getting serious MVP votes) while Tejada drove in 50 in under 400 AB's. Josh Hamilton's .294, 54, 125 line will surely be missed, and there is no one on the team to make up for that kind of production. The team needs to hope that Jason Lane has a comeback year and that they can keep their shortstops healthy; all three SS's spent considerable time on the DL in '11. The team also needs to figure out where it will get its speed, as Mike Sweeney leading off doesn't figure to steal you many bases.

Pitching:

Joe Nathan became the 5th straight Cy Young winner to come from Ireland, putting up and impressive 18-4 record. A.J. Burnett and Javier Vasquez also enjoy pitching in the cold and soggy climes of Ireland, making for a dangerous threesome, especially at Lucky Leprecaun Field. Clement and Redding don't look too hot on paper, but both manage to keep the team in games and eat up innings. The bullpen can be quite good, especially the fireballing Matt Anderson and the unlikely closer Ricky Stone. Can Aquilino Lopez knock a few runs off the ERA on this team? Is Erik Eckenstahler a setup quality arm? The answers remain to be seen.

Man on the Spot:

So many to choose from, but I'll go with Austin Kearns. He needs to do better than .249 with a handful of homeruns if the team is going to come even close to replacing Hamilton's run production.

You have to tip your hat to GM Tony Blake, this team has only had one sub .500 season, they’ve made the Wildcard 2 of the last 3 years and came a game from the world championship last year.  But, real success has eluded them, they’ve been overshadowed by Paris and Ellas (in hype at least) and this year, they’ll have their work cut out for them.   Paris is likely to be back in a big way, Havana will have an inside track on the Wildcard and it’s hard to see how Ireland stacks up against a healthy Ellas.  They lost some major firepower in Hamilton and Podsednik, so you have to wonder if there’s a threshold this year at which Ireland starts dumping people if they aren’t right there.

Off Season Analysis:

Losing Josh Hamilton is gonna hurt.  He was just a beast.  And losing Podsednik is just as bad since it means Miguel Tejada has to become the lead off man, which is hardly ideal.  Losing Kelly Wunsch is also bad news since this wasn’t a bullpen that could afford to let a guy like that go.  Finances were an issue, despite picking up some scratch for making it to the WS, so they had to settle for cheap OF in the later rounds.  Good moves, but probably not enough to make up for what they lost.

Offense:

There are some guys who can play here for sure.  They had two guys with 50 HR last year, and one of them wasn’t Troy Glaus.  Andruw Jones might have had his best year yet with 51 HR and a league leading 139 RBI.  Miguel Tejada will put up sick numbers if he’s healthy all year.  But there are some big question marks.  Can guys like Kearns and Lane make up the production they got from Hamilton with a series of platoons?  Is Mike Lowell going to be able to stay in the lineup when it puts Glaus on the bench?  Can Rob Bowen and Angel Berroa contribute anything at the back end?  There’s not a lot of room for “no” on any of those in this league.

Pitching:

They’ve won the last 5 Cy Young Awards, so they must be doing something right.  Last year it was Joe Nathan (Yeah, take that Mark Prior!) and this year it could be him Burnett, who knows, Vazquez?  Probably not Tim Redding, though, right?  Regardless, all five starters played pretty well here, so there’s no real cause for alarm there.  Garcia, Anderson, Stone, Gregg—not exactly household names, but last year they got the job done.  Anderson and Garcia had ERAs under 3.00 and Stone finished second in the league in Saves.  Erick Eckenstahler is not a real convincing replacement for Kelly Wunsch but, in general, I’d feel pretty good about this bullpen.

Man on the Spot:

Yes, I know, another last place prediction, but this team is on the rise. The team has won 55, 58, 69, and 75 games in the last four seasons, showing that they are slowly but surely returning to a competitive level. Some of the progress can be credited to young players getting better on the job, forced into starting roles before they were ready, which, while controversial at the time, may be paying off in the long run. But one can't help but wonder if the team could have been a contender sooner with a little more effort from GM Sean O'Hallaran. The front office (prior to this year) had done very little in terms of adding quality free agents, had made few trades, and had generally picked top prospects in the amateur draft and hoped they'd learn quickly. Management has promised a more pro-active approach to the team this year, so it's not out of the question that they could surprise people with a winning campaign. London fans deserve some pay off for their patience.

After a few years of winter meeting dormancy, London pulled out the check book and added a pair of key free agents. The big addition was LHP Johan Santana, giving the team its first ace-quality arm in years. C Johnny Estrada is another big pickup, giving the team offense from a spot that has been a black hole for years with Mike Rivera. The other big move was re-signing Jose Reyes, maintaining a speed presence at the top of the order. Probably could have improved some other aspects cheaply but chose to fill out the roster with minor leaguers instead.

Offense:

Reyes, Reed and Morales return to start off the order in style. Reyes stole 48 bases and hit 13 triples while Jeremy Reed had his best season since his days in Havana, slugging 42 homers and nearly 100 RBI. Kendry Morales continued his torrid offensive production, slugging .615 and making the All-Star team. What the rest of the offense does will likely spell the difference this season, as there is a pretty big drop off after the #3 spot in the order. Eric Hinske isn't terrible, but hardly clean-up material, while Johnny Estrada and Nick Johnson will probably mimic his 25 HR, 75 RBI stat line. Is this the year that Justin Upton shows up, or have his major league struggles ruined his confidence permanently? While this team could really use one more power bat, this certainly isn't the worst lineup in the league.

Pitching:

What can the youngsters learn from Santana? His presence has already seemed to help as Newby and Broadway had excellent springs. If those three keep it going all year there is no telling how far the team can go. Joe Mays and Ted Lilly are iffy at best, but if they can eat some innings I guess you'll take it. Despite some of the team's other struggles last year, the bullpen performed pretty darn well. William Buckner is for real and should probably get a chance to close games at some point. Williamson, Harper, Soriano...all better than you'd guess. They won't miss the retired Marte who stunk it up with an 0-8, 6.19 suckfest. Think he hung around one year too long?

Man on the Spot:

The threesome of Hinske, Estrada and Johnson needs to combine for about 80 HR and 240 RBI to give this team a solid enough offense to maintain success all year. 

You know, I was looking back at the old standings to see how Ireland finished last one year with 89 wins and it was because London once won 90 games.  No, really.  OK, so anyway, this year they’re gonna finish last again.  Should you care?  Maybe.  Last year, they actually had a shot until late in the season to put Paris in last, but folded at the end.  They added a genuine ace in Santana and one of the league’s best hitting catchers in Estrada.  They could make it interesting, but if you’re like me, you’re thinking “I’ll believe it when I see it.”  And, given what former last place teams Atlanta and Cleveland have done, it’s about damn time.

Off Season Analysis:

At least they showed up.  Signing Santana has to be a plus and Estrada is capable of getting you .300/30/80 out of your catcher, which is a big deal.  On the down side they left a lot of cash unspent that could have been put to getting a much needed 5^th starter or a couple of reliable relievers.  That could cost them the 5-10 games they need to crawl out of the basement.

Offense:

This isn’t the problem.  They scored 734 runs which isn’t stellar but it also isn’t bad enough to make you a last place team.  Their top 3, Jose Reyes, Jeremy Reed and Kendry Morales can hold their own with anybody.  Reed had the return to form the Knights really needed and Morales 49 HR makes him one of the league’s most feared hitters.  Eric Hinske isn’t a real convincing clean up hitter, but, so it goes.  The back of the lineup is pretty young and raw, but if they can learn on the job, this offense could be good for 770 runs or so.

Pitching:

This won’t be pretty.  No doubt Santana is a stud, but after that it’s just nobody.  Not in the ro’ not in the pen.  Just bad.  Check the ERAs: Broadway—5.09, Newby—4.77, Mays—out of baseball in 2011, Lilly—5.79 career ERA.  Not much to get excited about.  I was sure the bullpen was worse than I guess they are.  Buckner is the real deal and could be the closer, Soriano did pretty well and Williamson and Harper were pretty much average for middle relievers.  Zagurski and Beatty are unknowns, but it looks like the pen won’t be the weakest link on the team.

Man on the Spot:

No late season surge for the Pimpernels last year as this team finally ran out of gas. It was a pretty impressive run of post season appearances, and given their ability to turn struggling hitters into superstars, there is no reason to believe they won't be back in the thick of things in 2012. It's not going to be easy in the Euro this year, but it's never a good idea to completely write off Paris as they always have a way of making you look bad. Will the offense be as good as years past? Probably not. Will the pitching shine? That remains to be seen. But don't expect GM Michael Taylor to settle for fourth place two years in a row.

After seeing Hall of Famer Geoff Jenkins retire, Taylor quickly replaced him with All Star Lance Berkman. Derek Thompson was added to bolster the rotation and Braden Looper should help in the pen. Otherwise the money was spent retaining Williams and Day and filling in the holes. 

Offense:

I fully expect Lance Berkman to be an MVP candidate now that he's landed in the hitter friendly lineup of Paris. Not that he was too shoddy in Havana last season, posting a .323, 44, 128 line. Sanchez is your prototypical leadoff guy, having swiped 66 bases while scoring 116 runs in 2011. Rolen and Hillenbrand were great supporting bats for Jenkins and will likely repeat their numbers, while Cabrera and Morneau look to add about 80 RBI a piece. The fringe players are all platooned in one way or another so it's tough to say what a Nic Jackson or Hal Kelly will give you. It likely doesn't matter considering the heart of the lineup.

Pitching:

The pitching dropped off last year to the point where all the runs in the world weren't guaranteeing the team wins. Tim Hudson was somewhat of a bust, BH Kim was less than great, and the parade of 5th starters (Ellis, Anderson, DePaula) were all atrocious. The bullpen (outside of Villareal) were also pretty poor, leading to many, many high scoring affairs. Derek Thompson has been added to the rotation but it is a mystery how he will do. He was pretty great in Tennessee but busted in Cleveland. His presence does bump Day and Kim down a spot, however, and there are now 5 reliable starters in the rotation. Braden Looper and Derek Lowe hope to improve the spotty pen, but the team still needs to rely on Baez and Osuna getting it together. 

Man on the Spot:

I'll go with Thompson here. He's 16 games over .500 for his career and could be a huge addition if he keeps up that level of pitching. 

The ride finally came to an end last year in gay Paris as the team’s steady dismantling due to free agency got a juice as GM Michael Taylor finally threw in the towel and traded away some vets and started to rebuild.  The Pimps got to see the other side of .500 for the first time in team history and ended up with a nasty ERA.  It doesn’t seem likely they are going to roll over this year, though.   Taylor went out and got the free agents he needed to be back in the hunt and with a shitload of cash to spend, this team should be right up there with Ellas. 

Off Season Analysis:

Did as much as you’d think they could.  Re-signed Mr. Pimp, Jerome Williams, and Zach Day who will only play well in Paris .  Added Derek Thompson, who should be a perfect fit here, Braden Looper, one of the top 10 relievers in league history and Lance Berkman, who’ll probably go nuts here.  Only lost Jenkins to retirement, and Berkman will make you forget about him pretty fast.

Offense:

It’s Paris and, yeah, they’re still gonna score a lot, but the whacko numbers are long gone.  They’re probably again only the 4^th or 5^th best offense in the league despite the jacked up stats from their home park.  Getting things started here is not the problem as Alex Sanchez may be the best lead off guy the Pimpernels have had and Cesar Izturis is also a good, fast, high OBA guy.  Cabrera and Morneau as your #3 guys are not in the league with the usual guys in Paris like McPherson, Jenkins.  This is the most hitter-friendly place Berkman has been, so he should be awesome, but he is 36, so age could slow him down.  No reason to not expect good years from Rolen and Hillenbrand as usual.  Jody Gerut and Mike Young at the 8 slot do give you the unheard of possibility of an easy out in Paris .

Pitching:

Last year the bottom fell out of the pitching staff and they ended up with a 5.06 team ERA only better than Tennessee (damnit, there we go again).  Of course, some of that’s just the launching pad Maginot Line Field effect, but some of it was just plain suckitude.  There’s no real reason this squad can’t get the job done.  The starters are all wily vets, including ace Jerome Williams, occasionally ace-like Tim Hudson and Thompson, Day and Kim who are all at least decent.  The pen is also, seemingly, acceptable with reliable arms Osuna, Looper, Baez, Villareal and Ayala.  Based on name value and cost, I’d think this team should be in contention this time around.     

Man on the Spot:

In one of the least surprising developments of the year, Scotland could pitch and not hit in 2011. GM Carmelo Guareneri has decided to change his philosophy for '12, focusing his energy on big upgrades to the offense while sacrificing some of the arms. If you believe that anyone can pitch decently in Scotland, then he may be on to something. But if the thinned out pitching staff struggles away from pitcher-friendly Scotland, the team could have some troubles. I still think it's an interesting team to watch and it should be in wild card contention all year, especially if more moves are made.

Traded away 3/5 of the starting rotation but added some heavy hitters. Miguel Cabrera is a huge addition who may actually break the 100 RBI mark. Carlos Beltran is an interesting acquisition as he went from relative mediocrity to MVP level in his free agent year. While he can't possibly match his tropical-aided numbers in Edinburgh, a solid season would do wonders. The bullpen got some help and Rich Harden was added so the pitching was not completely neglected. A pretty good winter overall.

Offense:

After several years in Scotland it's clear that this is the toughest place to hit in the league. Has 'Melo finally found a lineup that can overcome the weather and heavy air of Stirling Castle Stadium? A lineup including Wells, Cabrera, Beltran and Teixeira would do quite well in most other cities, but Scotland is where good hitters go to die. One guy who never has problems is B.B. Boo-Ya, the lighting fast shortstop who stole a ludicrous 107 bases last year with 88 extra-base hits. How many of those 16 HR's were inside the park? With the exception of Phillips and Christianson, this is a pretty solid lineup, so I guess you get out of them what you can and hope for some low scoring games.

Pitching:

You might scratch your head at the notion of trading away Sowers, Tankersly and Lohse, but sacrifices must be made when trying to help the team in other areas. But that's 28 wins you must make up for, and while Rich Harden will likely flourish on this team, the rest of the rotation seems much weaker overall. Jered Weaver gets another shot despite going 0-4, 7.76 last year. Is this the season he figures it out? Adam Wainright was a FA pool pickup at the end of spring training and could do pretty well in this environment. If Brian Lawrence is .500 then it's true that ANYONE can pitch in Scotland. The bullpen should be great as Mungitt is another year more experienced and Liriano and newcomer Brock Landers are young but solid performers. Francisco Rodriguez is the most overpaid middle reliever in history.

Man on the Spot:

Jered Weaver. He may be the #4 starter, but if he sucks it up again the team will be in bad shape. The pitching depth just isn't here anymore after trades, retirements and buy outs. 

Despite 87 wins, Scotland came up short, 4 games out of the Wildcard and 3^rd in the Euro.  It’s not getting any easier, either, although I have a tough time picking between them, Paris and Ireland for 2,3,4.   Scotland had the league’s best pitching, but that’s got something to do with climate, which also explains their hitting woes where the Rebels would have been the worst if it weren’t for Tennessee (please, God, make it stop!).  They had an active off season which included adding Miguel Cabrera, who is in rare company for offensive production.  But if you look over the additions/losses, it looks like they came out on the short end.  We’ll see, but I’m obviously bullish on the Rebels for now.

Off Season Analysis:

It’s complicated, but follow along.  You swap Cordero and Farnsworth for Landers and K-Rod.  We’ll call that even.  You swap Matsui for Beltran.  Based on last year’s stats that looks good, but any other year, you’d probably rather have Matsui.  Even.  Lohse could be thought to be swapped with Harden.  Probably not good.  Then you trade Tankersley and Sowers for Cabrera.  Nope, I don’t like that.  S, I think they got worse.  A little.

Offense:

The effects of the weather are no doubt more severe here than anywhere else.  1-7 these guys really look like they would be one of your better teams.  BB Boo-Ya is the best lead off man in baseball and in 2011 he broke the stolen base record with 107 and scored 134 runs on a team where only Teixeira was better than one half that total.  Vernon Wells had a .915 OPS last year, so he’s no slouch.  Miguel Cabrera is a freak.  Teixeira led the team in HR last year with 29.  Beltran had an MVP quality year last year, albeit in Havana and Soriano is one of the best 2B in the league.  Granted Ryan Christianson may be the worst hitter in SLB, but outside of that, this is a decent bunch.

Pitching:

Let’s put it this way: if they don’t have the best team ERA in 2012, they’re in trouble.  And I predict that’s what you’ll see because Verlander is the only guy who, independent of weird weather stats, I would say is a star pitcher on any team.   You can make a pretty strong case looking this over that GM Carmelo Guarneri overcompensated for the deflated offense numbers by going all out after hitters like Beltran and Cabrera while leaving the pitching fires untended.  Harden is capable of pitching well and he should be helped by a place that will keep some of his gopher balls to long outs.  But the 3, 4 and 5 guys are sub standard.  Wainwright has a 5.31 career ERA and I doubt Scotland-ball is going to totally fix that.  Patience is running out on Jered Weaver who returned to the minors last year after going 0-4 with a 7.76 ERA.  And Brian Lawrence is bad enough nobody wanted him last year.  The bullpen is probably among the better ones with reliable guys like K-Rod and Brock Landers setting up somewhat unpredictable Shane Mungitt.

Man on the Spot: