2007 Midseason Report

The fourth season and aside from a team or two, there haven't been many surprises. The All Star game certainly saw some new faces, and we continue to track the success or failure of the huge crop of rookie pitchers starting across the league. The Euro is the only division that seems out of reach right now, and the wildcard is totally up for grabs, so look for some interesting weeks ahead, especially around the trade deadline.

Time to see how we're doing prediction-wise so far this year.


North Division

Well, uh, jeez, kinda wish I could take these predictions back.  Halifax?  Has beens.  Atlantic City?  Can’t compete.  Philly?  Championship talent.  So, I got nothing right, at least I was consistent.  So far, it’s looked like Halifax’s division to lose, but either Atlantic City or Bedford could streak to a division title.  Philly has been a terrible disappointment and Cleveland is on pace to find themselves in last for the third year in a row if they can’t leapfrog over Philly.  This all looks a lot more like 2006 than I had hoped it would.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 1st in North / Tom: 3rd in North

Current Standing:  51-39 (1st in North)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .267 / 392

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  3.87 / 349

Current Team Salary:  $78,850,000

All-Star Selections:  C Javy Lopez, 1B Hee-Seop Choi,  SS Orlando Cabrera, RHP A.J. Burnett, RHP Mariano Rivera, RHP Javier Vasquez


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Another year, another first place run for the team for up north. That last place finish back in '04 seems like an anomaly now, as GM Lars Cain has really put together a consistent winner in Halifax. That huge free agent crop last year didn't hurt the team a bit, and now they are in first place once again, sending a league leading 6 players to the All Star game. The pitching is the best it's ever been, and the offense is extremely consistent. Even with a string of injuries in May and June, the Sailors have held off the Gamblers and look to finish with 90+ wins once again.

Offense:

Getting great production from unusual positions is the key to making this offense run. Two of the best hitters on the team are the catcher and shortstop, which is a luxury few can afford. Choi continues to batter right-handed pitching, Lopez leads the team in HR and RBI, and Orlando Cabrera has made up for Miguel Cabrera's absence from the lineup. Once third base gets solidified, and if/when Ken Griffey Jr. decides to hit above his weight, this offense will only improve.  

Pitching:

Halifax boasts a superb pitching staff this year. Pitching coach Dave Steib must be a genius, because he's made All Stars out of guys who just didn't cut it elsewhere (Burnett, Vazquez, Wolf, and now Morris). Mariano Rivera is kicking tail at the closer spot, and Wunsch and Webb provide killer options in setup. Doug Waechter has gotten an undue workload due to injuries to Wolf, but the team hasn't suffered too much for it. Definitely not a staff you want to see in the playoffs. 

Biggest Surprise:

Randy Wolf. He hasn't been outstanding, but he looked like a career 5.50+ ERA guy before landing in Canada.

Biggest Disappointment:

Griffey just lost his mojo or something. He has some pop, but hitting below the Mendoza line just isn't acceptable. 

Man on the Spot Update:

Roy Halladay is 8-8, which is just fine when you've found yourself as the 4th starter.

Tom's Take

Overview:

On the one hand, I think I was right in saying this team was not as good as the championship Sailors of ’06 and my prediction of 88 wins for them might be close, but on the other, the rest of the division, save for surprising Atlantic City, failed to step it up to compete.  Giving Larsen Cain an opening to seal the deal on his 3rd division title in a row should about make that a foregone conclusion, and shame on Bedford and Philly if they don’t at least put a scare in this team.  Still, an injury to Matt Morris might make the second half very interesting.

Offense:

This is just an average offense now, around the middle of the league’s averages in BA, HR, and Runs.  Hee Seop Choi is still the money man here, but he probably won’t be league MVP unless he really goes on a tear in the second half.  Javy Lopez has been the leader in power production but an injury has also taken a few games off his season.  Struggles this year in CF and 3B.  In CF, both Andruw Jones and Ken Griffey, Jr. have been major underachievers while at 3B an ailing Miguel Cabrera has not been his usual self.  Good enough to win the division, but good enough to win a title?

Pitching:

Pitching has actually improved and with the league’s only team ERA under 4.00, the Sailors have, it would seem, the best staff in SLB.  The front 4 starters—Morris, Vasquez, Burnett and Halladay—have been rock solid and the pen has persevered.  Morris is shelved for a month, which means Waechter or Runelvys would pull some starts—not a good thing.  Mariano Rivera and Brandon Webb have done well as “closers by committee,” though Wunsch, Waechter and Weber are, despite their initials, not putting up many “W”s.  My guess is, the team ERA will be above 4.00 by year’s end.

Biggest Surprise:

Probably that Matt Morris has finally looked like an ace, though Jimenez’s .327 BA is a pleasant surprise too.

Biggest Disappointment:

Randy Wolf going 3-7 on a team with good offensive firepower is bad and deprives this team of a reliable lefty starter.

Man on the Spot Update:

Halladay is a .500 pitcher, which is unimpressive on this team.  He’s given up a fair share of gopher balls and hasn’t really shown he was worth the investment.  On the other hand, he’s not “Goat of the Year” bad, just not having any kind of resurgence.

 





Predicted Finish:  Darin: Last in North / Tom: Last in North

Current Standing:  48-39 (2nd in North, 1.5 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .266 / 416

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.05 / 351

Current Team Salary:  $71,950,000

All-Star Selections:  C Jorge Posada, RF Vladimir Guerrero, RHP Jeff Zimmerman


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

We didn't think it could happen, but we have to admit when we're wrong. Atlantic City is nowhere near the last place team that both Tom and I predicted them to be, thanks mostly to a very active rookie GM in Jose Gutierrez, as well as some great play from the veterans who count the most. The Gamblers have made a slew of trades to keep the team in contention, and right now are the front runners for the wildcard (if not the division itself). While the team could use some more consistent play down the stretch, you have to hand it management for taking our low expectations to heart and building a winner.

Offense:

This lineup isn't terribly consistent, but the superstars are getting the job done. Jim Thome was an obvious snub from the All Star game as he leads his team in HR and RBI, but Posada and Guerrero have had equal hands in making this offense go. The recent addition of Carlos Beltran should really help this team out, adding a fourth option for power and production. The middle infield has been a little underwhelming, and Nevin's power is way down, but overall, a good job thus far in AC. 

Pitching:

Despite eight players getting starting time, this pitching staff has been fairly decent. Dontrelle Willis has been a great trade thus far, doing what he couldn't anywhere else: win consistently. Paul Byrd has had a fantastic ERA, and rookie Angel Guzman was shining before his unexpected move out of the starting rotation. We're not sure about the acquisitions of May and Milton, as the team already has better lefties, but sometimes you have to roll the dice. The bullpen is getting sorted out, with the top performers sticking around and the dogs taking a hike. 

Biggest Surprise:

Willis with 10 wins at the break? Who knew?

Biggest Disappointment:

Josh Barfield looked like a star on the rise, but now he looks like a #8 hitter. 

Man on the Spot Update:

Carl Crawford was traded in the Beltran deal, but he was doing quite well before his departure.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

Somebody forgot to tell Atlantic City this was a “rebuilding year.”  New GM Jose Gutierrez has fashioned a winning ballclub with the leftovers he found and made some sharp deals to give these guys a shot at the division or the Wild Card if they can’t chase down Halifax.  If they can sort out the bullpen, get Bernie Castro and Josh Barfield back to their early career form, and make a .500 pitcher out of Milton by year’s end, they have a real shot.  If not, watch out for next year, this is suddenly a team I’m glad not to have in my division.

Offense:

As expected, it’s Thome and Vladdy who are carrying the load.  The team has major speed with Luis Castillo and now Bernie Castro, who replaces the speed of Carl Crawford.  Jorge Posada was an easy All Star selection with a .343 avg, 4th best in the league.  Konerko and Schalk are really disappointing and Schalk, particularly, is a guy management might look to upgrade with a trade.  They are going to need Beltran and Barfield to turn it up over the home stretch as they are the guys the Gamblers are counting on to get on base for Vlad and Thome.  Beltran, especially, has a lot to prove. 

Pitching:

It seems like everybody is 6-4.  Dontrelle Willis has been the “ace” and may put up 17 or 18 wins, but the rest of the staff is all likely to be 12-10 or so.  Which is fine, given those are winning records.  Paul Byrd has had the best ERA, at 2.72, and Dennis Tankersly has finally showed up like he did his rookie year.  The bullpen has been an issue all year long, with opening day closer LaTroy Hawkins blowing 5 games and getting traded and the middle relief being feast or famine as Shuey and Zimmerman have shone while others have been an eyesore.  Fifth starter has been an issue all year long with Angel Guzman, Casey Fossum and Brian Lawrence all getting a shot before Eric Milton came over.  Somebody there has to step it up.

Biggest Surprise:

Would have been Crawford before the trade, but Angel Guzman, despite a 3-6 record has been a very useful addition from the lowly Rule V draft.

Biggest Disappointment:

Josh Barfield has gone from a rising star who put up 120 RBI one season to a typical .250 hitting middle infielder.  Can he find his swing in the second half?

Man on the Spot Update:

Carl Crawford had been exceeding my wildest expectations, hitting over .300 most of the season while on pace to break the stolen base season record.  But Jose Gutierrez didn’t want to deal with his upcoming contract negotiations and shipped him to Tennessee.  I’m not even sure he’ll start there, which might mean Bernie Castro’s SB record could survive another year.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 3rd in North / Tom: 1st in North

Current Standing:  44-45 (3rd in North, 6.5 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .281 / 433

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.12 / 368

Current Team Salary:  $74,250,000

All-Star Selections:  2B Alfonso Soriano, 2B Jose Vidro, 3B Eric Chavez, RHP Josh Beckett, RHP Roy Oswalt


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

The Crunch are a frustrating team to watch. Clearly they have the talent to succeed, and they often dominate, but the hot and cold play has kept them at bay. While only 6.5 games out of first, Bedford needs to step it up and play like the champions they could be. It would be a shame to see these players waste another season with inconsistent play.

Offense:

The first thing that jumps out at you about this lineup is how healthy they've been. Six of the eight players have played every game so far, and you can't overestimate how important that is. The team is hitting for a high average as well thanks to five guys hitting .290 or higher. All eight have double digit homers, no one is hitting under .260....a terrific lineup that is fifth in the league in runs scored and fourth in team batting. 

Pitching:

What the starting pitchers giveth, the bullpen taketh away. Four of the five starters have ERA's under 4.00, and none have a losing record. The bullpen, however, has racked up 16 losses (to just eight victories), keeping the Crunch from putting on a good streak of wins. Beckett and Oswalt were deserving All Stars, and either could get votes for Cy Young. Lohse is having a comeback season as well. Derek Lowe needs to get it together at fifth starter or management needs to make a move. The bullpen needs serious work.

Biggest Surprise:

Oswalt finally playing like a #1 pick in the initial draft. What took him so long?

Biggest Disappointment:

Lowe is getting hammered after a few solid seasons with Bedford.

Man on the Spot Update:

Shouldnt' have had any concerns about Soriano, who continues to dominate in Bedford like he did in Halifax. Average, power, and 37 steals can't be wrong.

Tom's Take

Overview:

This team is just frustrating.  Despite the fact that, if Richard Gin would stop the madness and not give Derek Lowe the ball anymore, they’d have the best starting pitching in the league and the fact they’ve added serious offensive firepower, they still can’t get above .500 and are behind the Gamblers, who on paper, are not half the team this is.  What gives?  Bedford still has real hopes of getting the Wild Card, or even playing for the division crown, so it’s up to Gin to make some deals and fix the problems here—like the bullpen—or else I think some harsh criticism is in order.

Offense:

This is no longer the problem on this team as it was in the past.  Team BA of .281 is among the league’s best and they can get production out of almost every spot in the order.  David Ortiz is having a phenomenal year, with an OPS around 1.000, and Alfonso Soriano has been worth every dime.  Jose Vidro may be the batting champ and Trot Nixon is even on pace to hit 35-40 Homers.  If there’s a guy you’d like to step it up, it’d be Jenkins.  Oh, and why is Ramon Hernandez in AAA?  Talk about giving up on a guy.

Pitching:

A tale of two teams, almost.  You have a stellar starting staff, well 4 out of 5 if you do laundry on the days Derek Lowe starts, then a last-place bullpen.  Oswalt has been dominating since joining the Crunch, leading the team with an 11-4 record.  Beckett, still the team ace, and Kyle Lohse have pitched better but not gotten as much run support.  Rich Harden has also been good, though he’s just above .500.  The pen is, as promised, Braden Looper and a lot of bad pitchers.  If Bedford wants to make a run at it, they need to add about 2 guys in the pen who can shut somebody down.

Biggest Surprise:

Roy Oswalt.  He’s never been really bad, but this is his breakout year.

Biggest Disappointment:

Jason Giambi.  Off the ‘roids and on the bench, he’s not even capable of putting a scare in anybody as a pinch hitter, you could just as well let the pitcher swing away.

Man on the Spot Update:

Oswalt looks like he’s finally found a home.  Leading the league in wins, he’s got a real shot at the Cy Young if Beckett doesn’t  take it.  And despite that this team is still below .500?   

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 2nd in North / Tom: 2nd in North

Current Standing:  36-53 (4th in North, 14.5 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .247 / 370

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.67 / 409

Current Team Salary:  $83,800,000

All-Star Selections:  1B Todd Helton, RF Shawn Green, LHP Barry Zito


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

So much for predictions. This Philly team is really going out of its way to make us look bad. The Phynatics are showing their age on offense, hitting a league worst .247, and that vaunted pitching staff hasn't exactly worked out. Poor roster management has these guys tired and frustrated, and if the tide doesn't turn soon, this team could finish last in a year with high expectations.

Offense:

The team is breaking records for the amount of Ben-Gay and Icee-Hot used in a season. These guys are old and it's showing. Vinny Castilla is a total bust, Jeter is hitting just .240, and Bagwell isn't much higher. Larry Walker is the only old crank who is hitting over .300, but he's what, 48? Val Pasucci, the youngest guy in the lineup, leads the team in HR and RBI, but isn't hitting well either. This team needs some young blood soon!

Pitching:

It doesn't matter how good your starting five are if you are going to sabotage the staff with poor roster decisions. For some unknown reason, Eric Etrain only fields four relief pitchers, putting undue strain on everyone on the staff. To put it simply, these guys are seriously overworked. The result is the bullpen blowing leads for the starters, giving them mediocre records despite good ERA's. You would never think that Pedro and Colon would both have losing records in the same year, but here you are. My preseason Cy Young pick, Kerry Wood, is flatlining at an 8-8 record as well. Beef up that pen! 

Biggest Surprise:

That Larry Walker can still hit. He should have retired 3 years ago.

Biggest Disappointment:

Wow, where to start? I'll say overall lack of dominance by the starting pitching. 

Man on the Spot Update:

Juan Pierre has done really well, but it's certainly not enough to help this offense right now.

Tom's Take

Overview:

Start looking for a goat, because this team has been a humongous disappointment.  I might not be surprised to find them in 3rd or maybe 10 games out, but this team is barely staying ahead of lowly Cleveland and their chance to compete for another title is already well passed.  Now, it’s time for GM Eric Etrain to start unloading some salaries and aged veterans in hopes of getting something out of them before he’s left in the off season with a depleted roster and a couple years of last place finishes all but guaranteed.  It will be interesting to see who gets sent packing in the second half.  BTW, I said to keep an eye on the “1 run games” column in the standings and, lookit, they are league worst 10-19.  Good call.

Offense:

Dismal.  They have the league’s lowest team BA and are second lowest in runs scored.  Hitting under .250 as a club is no way to win ballgames.  Perennial stars like Green and Castilla have been sliding into mediocrity and the couple of bright spots—Pasucci hitting homers at a torrid pace and Juan Pierre finally getting on base enough to warrant leading him off—haven’t been enough to make up for the mediocrity of the rest.  Larry Walker is having another good year, but Philly would be wise to trade him since retirement is all but assured at the end of the year.

Pitching:

Honestly, they’ve been a very average bunch, salaries and names not living up to the hype.  Pedro is 5-7 with a 4.17 ERA.  Wood is 8-8 just below 4 runs given up a game.  Zito about the same.  Colon was the team’s best, but he got little run support and is now injured (or faking one to avoid having to lose more 2-1 games).  Joe Mays has been as bad as expected and the pen has been awful outside of closer K-Rod.  They’d be winning all the time in Paris, but with the league’s worst offense, they all seem to be overthrowing and worried about every baserunner.

Biggest Surprise:

Val Pasucci’s power outburst.  He had 6 career HR before this season and has 25 already by the break.  Juiced?

Biggest Disappointment:

Vinny Castilla.  One year too many on the old body and he’s now hitting below the Mendoza line.  Sad.

Man on the Spot Update:

I got this one right.  I said the Phynatics couldn’t afford to have Takatsu post a plus 6.00 ERA and that’s what happened.  He and the other three overworked guys in the Philly pen have gone 5-14 and been a real sore spot all year long.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 4th in North / Tom: 4th in North

Current Standing:  33-54 (Last in North, 16.5 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .254 / 363

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.99 / 428

Current Team Salary:  $69,550,000

All-Star Selections:  CF Jim Edmonds


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

We thought that this would be the year that the Dawgs would start digging out of their hole, but high roster turnover coupled with injuries have kept them at bay. The young core of hitters hasn't progressed much this year, and with a pitching staff that hasn't found it's rhythm, it's no surprise that Cleveland finds itself in last place. That doesn't mean they can't put some things together in the second half, as players like Ichiro and Sizemore have just come back from long injuries, and management continues to tinker with trades to try to get this lineup going again.

Offense:

For lack of a better term, this offense has been really "vanilla" this year. Nothing great, nothing terrible, just sort of blah. Blah won't cut it in this league though, and the lack of run production isn't helping out a spotty starting staff. The loss of Ichiro really hurt, as that $10 million investment out of the lineup leaves you with a lot of young and inconsistent hitters. Players like Estrada and Edmonds are playing below their usual numbers as well, which doesn't help a team that struggles with runs. 

Pitching:

The team is in the bottom half of the league in pitching, but GM Mike McAvoy continues to try to fix that. Rookie Jeremy Sowers has been the best of the bunch, posting a 3.27 ERA and a 5-5 record thus far. You figure he could be 8-4 or better on a team with more offense. The rest of the staff has ERA's in the 4's or higher, with the exception of reliever Danys Baez, who could be traded before the deadline. The parade of starters trying to make things better includes names like Jung Bong, so you know the team is really struggling to get it right. 

Biggest Surprise:

That Sowers hasn't allowed the lack of support hurt his confidence.

Biggest Disappointment:

Hafner and Teixiera haven't made that next big step in their game. 

Man on the Spot Update:

Freddy Garcia has been pretty decent, putting up numbers that would be fine if he wasn't the #2 starter.

Tom's Take

Overview:

It’s starting to look bleak in Cleveland as the “Mistakes by the Lake” are back in last despite a rookie phenom and an off season spending binge.  Some good work in the farm system is starting to pay off, but this team has now got some fat contracts that will be hard to unload and is facing yet another salary cap whack.  Can they avoid last and the further erosion of their fan base or can they set themselves up for yet another off season retool? 

Offense:

Underpowered and overmatched.  They’ve hit half the homers of either Ellas or Paris and with only a .254 BA, and it’s not because they are a team of Tony Gwynns.  To be fair, their star OF Edmonds and Ichiro have been injured, but, still, there’s a reason Edmonds is this team’s only selection to the All Star Game.  Johnny Estrada has filled the C hole nicely, at least, so that was a wise pick up.

Pitching:

The seats fill when Rookie of the Year favorite Jeremy Sowers takes the hill and empty on the other 4 days.  For a while the team played with an all lefty rotation, which, while novel didn’t work.  They’ve been very disappointed with Freddy Garcia and Livan Hernandez who both look like wastes of cash.  Trading Dontrelle Willis is looking like a huge gaffe.  The pen isn’t even worth discussing.

Biggest Surprise:

Jeremy Sowers may not be a big surprise, but he’s the real deal and the only bright spot around.

Biggest Disappointment:

Ichiro.  My goodness.  He sets the standard for overpaid.  The Goat award is probably already being polished for a spot to engrave his name, only do we use Roman numerals or Kanji?

Man on the Spot Update:

Eric Milton was a bust, so the Dawgs unloaded him and his contract to Atlantic City.  Like in Halifax, he may get the runs he needs to win there, but he’s overpaid however you spin it. 

South Division

Of all the divisions, this one has been the easiest to predict.  Havana is the team to beat and Savannah and Atlanta are bringing up the rear as usual.  Then it’s a question of where Las Vegas and Tennessee slot in.  So far, Tennessee is better than expected and could be the league’s wild card.  Vegas, on the other hand, continues a slide into sub-mediocrity and has been trotting out a pitching staff that wouldn’t cut it on some team’s AAA franchises. 

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 1st in South / Tom: 1st in South

Current Standing:  55-33 (1st in South)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .286 / 462

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.36 / 386

Current Team Salary:  $90,400,000

All-Star Selections:  SS Adam Everett, CF Scott Podsednik, RHP Kazuhiro Sasaki, RHP Danny Patterson


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

The division was there for the winning for Havana, and all they had to do was not screw it up. Well the team has done what it's needed to so far to stay in first and hold off the Thunder. The Diablos are 22 games over .500, but there is still concern over some streaky play and a recent string of win a game, lose a game ball. But if the team stays relatively healthy, there is no reason they won't win the South for the second straight season.

Offense:

Surprise! The Diablos are top five in the league in offense! This hasn't always been the case, but a deep bench has helped them overcome big injuries (Piazza) and keep scoring runs in bunches. Durazo, Lane and Lowell have all been hitting for great power, while Piazza (and backup Pudge Rodriguez) have delivered 82 RBI from the catcher's spot. The newspapers cringed when Keesing traded Jose Reyes to division rival Tennessee, but Adam Everett came in return, and all he has done is hit .350 and lead the team in hits, runs, doubles and steals. 

Pitching:

The acquisition of Kaz Sasaki was a huge lift for this staff, as it allowed the rest of the starters to slot down and not feel the pressure of having to be the ace. Sasaki's low endurance has limited him to just 7 decisions in 18 starts, but his 1.68 ERA landed him in the All Star game. Lefty Johan Santana leads the team with 8 wins, while Oliver Perez and rookie Bobby Brownlie follow with 7 a piece. Byung-Hyun Kim needs to step it up, as his ERA is better than the 3 previously mentioned, but his record is just 5-6. The bullpen could use some new faces before the deadline, as middle and long relief have been real bad. Luckily Percival and Wickman have been lights out in the 8th and 9th, and All Star Danny Patterson is 5-0, 1.18 in setup. 

Biggest Surprise:

Everett has become a feared leadoff man and is making this offense go.

Biggest Disappointment:

Lopez, Martin and Stone, who have all had great seasons in the past, are getting pasted this year in middle relief.

Man on the Spot Update:

Ryan Jensen looked like a great find in spring training, but his ERA was nearly 7.00 before getting sent to AAA. Sasaki's arrival meant we are unlikely to hear much from him.

Tom's Take

Overview:

Surprising no one, Havana has been at the top of this division pretty much from opening day.  They are already making moves to plan for the post season, like getting Kaz Sasaki, and really just have to stay healthy and keep an eye on Tennessee if that team gets a hot streak going.  They probably could use a more productive OF than Jeremy Reed and need to sort out the pen soon, but other than that, it’s smooth sailing until October.

Offense:

They’ve upped their team BA to .286, which has gotten them in the top tier of offenses, even without major HR power.  They have both the league’s best catchers, an embarrassment of riches there, and have had great production out of corner guys Lowell and Durazo.  An injury sidelined burner Alex Sanchez and with him coming back, they should be in playoff form.  Probably would like to 86 Ray Durham, but, one bad guy won’t ruin anything for you.

Pitching:

Outside of Sasaki, the starters are just pitching well enough to win—similar numbers to Philly, but a good indicator of what run support can do.  Sasaki’s numbers a just sick.  Only 2 HR given up in over 100 innings and his K/IP ratio is unreal.  Patterson and Wickman have been the pen anchors, but the Diablos have given about 20 guys a chance to be a middle relieve this year.  They hope that doesn’t spell their demise in the fall.

Biggest Surprise:

I’ll say Browlie going 7-4.  Not a stellar ERA, but his winning record has meant a big burden was lifted of GM Keesing in trying to find a 5th starter.

Biggest Disappointment:

Ryan Jensen.  So much for the ST hype.  He got his ERA up around 7.00 and the Castros sent him off for some “re-education through labor.”

Man on the Spot Update:

While Oliver Perez’s ERA of 4.43 and penchant to give up the dinger might make you think he’d be a bust, his 7-4 record is more than adequate for the Diablos.  Just keep it close and they’ll try to win it for you. 

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 2nd in South / Tom: 2nd in South

Current Standing:  49-39 (2nd in South, 6 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .271 / 373

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.07 / 355

Current Team Salary:  $76,500,000

All-Star Selections:  LF Albert Pujols, CF Josh Hamilton, CF Vernon Wells, RHP Mark Prior, RHP John Smoltz


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

The Thunder have kept up with the Diablos pretty well, but still are missing that little something that can put them ahead. Though looking over the stats sheet, you'd have trouble to figure out what. The team has speed, power, a dominant closer, an All Star ace pitcher...but they can't seem to catch up with Havana no matter how hard they try. Even a good head to head record with the Diablos hasn't helped as their record outside of the division isn't dominating. No reason to be pessimistic, however, as Tennessee is still 10 over .500 and has the players to get into the playoffs.

Offense:

Okay, so they aren't as dominant as I made them out to be in the Heaters. Still, this team has a nice blend of speed and power and scores a decent amount of runs. Four players with double digit steals is a real luxury, though you'd like to see them score more often. Josh Hamilton is a young star on the rise who made the All Star game and could lead his team in several offensive categories. The team just got even faster with the addition of Carl Crawford and his 49 steals. You would like to see Albert Pujols step it up in the second half. 

Pitching:

Shaping up pretty well, with a few key exceptions. Mark Prior is happy to be stateside again and has returned to his 2004 form. Derek Thompson and Adam Wainwright, two pitchers who few have heard of, are a combined 13-9, making for a nice 2-3 tandem in the rotation. Unfortunately, Danny Haren has had trouble with the wins, and Jason Marquis is getting hammered. The bullpen has its bright spots, particularly John Smoltz's 1.56 ERA and Damaso Marte's 6-0 record in middle relief. 

Biggest Surprise:

Adam Wainwright is one of the rookie pitchers doing really well. It is inexplicable why he bounced around between so many organizations before cracking the big leagues.

Biggest Disappointment:

Albert Pujols should be an All Star, yet he's putting together a pretty mediocre year.

Man on the Spot Update:

Worry was certainly warranted, as he has a 3-8 record and rapidly balooning ERA.

Tom's Take

Overview:

In yet another non-surprise, the Thunder are in 2nd and are the only team with a realistic shot to give chase to the Diablos.  Ben Royer’s trading mania has died down and the team has reflected what now look to be a lot of sharp moves.  They probably need another big trade there somewhere, maybe for another power hitter, but they are just on the cusp of making the post-season one way or the other.

Offense:

They are still in the bottom half of the league, thanks in no small part to an awful year from Pujols, but it’s been enough to keep them winning behind a very good pitching staff.  Latest moves to get Carl Crawford seem to indicate a desire to make this a speed team, so we’ll see how that works.  The biggest breakout years have come from Josh Hamilton and Jose Reyes, who both have now officially arrived.  But Rolen, Ordonez and Pujols have all been disappointing.

Pitching:

No great shock, Mark Prior is the staff leader with a fine 2.83 ERA and 8 wins.  But Derek Thompson and Adam Wainwright have also made major contributions and the bullpen has been spectacular.  Marte and Stewart have been the best middle relievers in the league, going 10-0 combined and John Smoltz has been every bit as dominating as expected as the closer.  Haren and Marquis are the real weak spots, making the 4-5 starters pretty much easy wins for the other team.

Biggest Surprise:

Probably Reyes, who, now joined with Crawford, is part of the “year of the speedburner” where guys we’d written off are all of a sudden hitting over .300 and stealing all kinds of bases.

Biggest Disappointment:

Pujols again.  Maybe he’s off to another slow start that he’ll make up for with a rampage in September, but he’s not putting up the sort of numbers you expect from him.

Man on the Spot Update:

Derek Thompson’s 3.64 ERA is pretty impressive but it’s only gotten him a 6-4 record.  So he’ll struggle to get the 15 wins I thought they needed out of him to be a playoff team.  Still a pretty good prediction, as his record shows run support and pen problems even if Thompson has been good himself. 

 



Predicted Finish:  Darin: 3rd in South / Tom: 4th in South

Current Standing:  42-46 (3rd in South, 13 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .292 / 489

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  5.42 / 477

Current Team Salary:  $78,050,000

All-Star Selections:  3B Hank Blalock, SS Bobby Crosby, LF Brian Giles, RF J.D. Drew 


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

2007 is Las Vegas' year to prove that tons of runs don't win you division titles. This team is second only to Paris in offensive production, but with the league's worst pitching staff, are 4 games under and more or less out of it. League sources say that GM Doug Hoepker is getting the boot, and a face familiar to many SLB vets could be replacing him. The team needs someone to do something soon, as the laissez-faire management has allowed this team to be half of what it had the potential to be at season's start.

Offense:

This is an enviable collection of talent who is burdened with scoring 7 runs a game to compete. Brian Giles heads things up, and were it not for Troy Glaus over in Paris, would likely be the front runner for MVP with his 80 first half RBI. Blalock and Drew were well deserving of All Star bids, and when even your catcher is batting near .300, you know things are going well. Now Tejada is back from injury, and when Abreu returns, this team will be real mean every 1/2 inning. 

Pitching:

...and this is where things fall apart. Matt Clement should demand a trade, as he is the only player even remotely performing to expectations. Radke has 10 losses, Hudson is sub-.500, and reliable veteran relievers like Nen, Guardado and Remlinger are struggling. Jon Lieber has taken the most advantage of his run support, going 8-5 despite an ERA in the mid-5.00's. Time to turn some of those extra hitters into starting pitchers? 

Biggest Surprise:

Bobby Crosby has put up great power numbers for a SS. On pace for 35-40 HR, and that's with Tejada on the roster as well.

Biggest Disappointment:

A good year from Hudson could mean the difference of 4 or 5 games in the standings, but he hasn't stepped it up. 

Man on the Spot Update:

Radke has been terrible, but is anyone surprised? His career record is nearly 20 games under .500.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

Ah, yes, Vegas…bright lights, showgirls and baseball games with football scores.  What else is there to say?  It’s sort of annoying to have a team with such a glaring problem that nobody seems to want to do anything to fix.  They now have the worst ERA in the league and GM Doug Hoepker hasn’t been flooding my email box with trade ideas.  Is it just me?  So far as I know, this team is content to play another 70 games of slugfests.  Oh, well, at least that means plenty of time to sell hot dogs and beer.

Offense:

Still brutal, but no longer the top dogs as Ellas, Havana and, of course, Paris are all in the same vein, now.  Injuries to Abreu and Matsui may have taken a few runs off the totals, but with Brian Giles, JD Drew and even SS Crosby on their usual missions, an injury or two won’t slow this gang down.  Mike Sweeney at 1B is not as good as most league 1B, and Tejada is having a bit of an off year, if you are looking for things to criticize.

Pitching:

Just embarassing.  ERAs are fatter than the town’s Elvis impersonators and even staff stopper Tim Hudson has given up the fight.  Matt Clement has been fine, so that was a good off season acquisition, but Lieber, Lidle and Radke more than make up for that—why are they all still starting?  The team’s bullpen, once able to carry them to a World Series title, now doesn’t have a man with an ERA below 5.28.  Horror show, man, horror show.  But, hey, it’s all worth it to have 5 superstar OF right?

Biggest Surprise:

A.J. Pierzyski.  Throw a guy on a team of sluggers and watch the magic.  Don’t try this at home, but he’s on a pace to drive in 80 runs and is hitting .292 thanks to joining the Vegas circus.

Biggest Disappointment:

Some of the other pitchers are worse, but Tim Hudson now going 6-7 with a 4.74 ERA just means there’s nobody on this team you can count on.

Man on the Spot Update:

Matt Clement has been far and away the Rounders’ best arm, but that’s not been enough to make up for a non-existent bullpen and a bad year from Tim Hudson.  But, he’s at least signed on to give them one good arm for 2 more seasons to come.  Just need about 9 more.



Predicted Finish:  Darin: 4th in South / Tom: 3rd in South

Current Standing:  39-49 (4th in South, 16 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .263 / 373

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.38 / 380

Current Team Salary:  $71,450,000

All-Star Selections:  LF Lance Berkman, RF Xavier Nady, RHP Carl Pavano, RHP Jason Schmidt


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

The year started off well for the Sabers, and it was looking like the team had finally made the right moves to play .500 ball (an improvement over years past). But as the league settled in, the Sabers started to struggle, and once again Georgia has two terrible baseball teams. If it's not one thing it's another with this team, as even though the team ERA is 1.5 runs lower than at this time last year, the record isn't much better. This offense needs some serious improvement if GM Richard Vohs doesn't want to sweat out another possible last place finish.

Offense:

Lance Berkman can't do it all himself. Despite some better seasons from Nady, Kotsay and Uribe, this Saber team still can't score runs. At some point, management needs to invest in some legitimate star players or this offense will continue to be the Achilles Heel of Savannah. Poor infield play has really hamstrung the team as well, especially the lack of production from third base. No team speed to speak of. 

Pitching:

To Vohs' credit, the starting five is vastly improved over last year. Schmidt, Hampton, Pavano, Carpenter, and even Darren Dreifort make up a rotation that Vegas would kill for. The problem here is a bullpen that is bad on a historical level. A 4-17 record, terrible ERA's up and down....worst bullpen ever? Push that record to even 10-11 and the team is .500. Doesn't seem like a hard thing to fix, but we all know the shortage of good arms out there.

Biggest Surprise:

Chris Carpenter, despite his .500 record, has posted good numbers.

Biggest Disappointment:

Aramis Ramirez has sucked, and Tony Batista has sucked more. Third base is a black hole.

Man on the Spot Update:

Sean Burroughs is kicking ass in Greece. Bad trade?

Tom's Take

Overview:

They are making steady improvements and, if Vegas is content to continue trotting out their miserable pitching staff, really do have a shot at 3rd place this year.  Most of Rich Vohs’s moves are working out—the new starting pitchers are great, his move to get Brendan Donnelly as a middle reliever is paying off (for both teams) and they are probably just a couple of power corner IF away from being a real threat to compete.  Another good off season and this team will be a contender.

Offense:

Still a weak spot.  Among the lowest in run production and only Cleveland is worse in HR numbers.  And they don’t have much speed either.  The OF is still strong with Berkman and Nady both getting trips to the All Star game.  Juan Uribe was having an unthinkable year, hitting around .350 before getting injured.  The Sabers still need a big time 1B and now need to find a 3B to replace Sean Burroughs—oh, and a C that can hit wouldn’t hurt—but the pieces are there and those corner IF usually aren’t too hard to get in the FA market.

Pitching:

Much, much improved.  Pavano and Schmidt give them 2 starters in the All Star game and Carpenter and Hampton could just as easily have gone as well.  Darren Dreifort has been just okay, but that’s fine for a 5th starter.  Any of these guys would be Cy Young material on a team with Paris—or even Halifax’s offense.  The pen continues to mystify, but Donnelly, Sauerbeck and Farnsworth seem good enough if the roles can all be sorted out.  Yeah, that David Riske closer thing didn’t really swing, eh?

Biggest Surprise:

Have to be Juan Uribe, injury or not.  Who thought he’d ever be more than a .250 hitting middle IF backup?

Biggest Disappointment:

Either Aramis Ramirez or Tim Salmon.  A parade of washed up would-be power hitters plagues Savannah.

Man on the Spot Update:

David Riske was, ahem, predictably bad, so he’s been exiled to Tampa.  His replacement, Scott Williamson has not been much of an improvement.   

 

 





Predicted Finish:  Darin: Last in South / Tom: Last in South

Current Standing:  33-55 (Last in South, 22 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .257 / 357

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  5.28 / 459

Current Team Salary:  $63,250,000

All-Star Selections:  2B Roberto Alomar, 3B Morgan Ensberg


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

You really start to wonder if this team is cursed, you know? Newcomers to SLB probably look at the league history and think "this Jim Masters guy has no idea what he's doing." But the rest of us know he has had a lot of success in the past, so the Flyers' continued failures are a puzzlement. Talk about a team where no moves come out right! But you can't go and cry about it...this is baseball! If Jim wants to avoid a league low $61million salary cap next season, he needs to pull off a few brilliant trades and leapfrog Savannah for fourth place. It's not out of the question. 

Offense:

You bring in the big hitters, and they fall flat on their face. Such is life in Atlanta, where players like Chipper Jones sign on and hit .200. Once again, no Flyer is on pace to hit either 40 HR or 100 RBI, and 47 runs scored leads the team. This lineup is consistently mediocre, lacking a true superstar. Chipper was supposed to be that guy, but he apparently has no desire to play in Georgia. Morneau has plateaued off on his production, Ensberg is an iffy All Star, and Alomar can only do so much at leadoff. 

Pitching:

Time to fire the pitching coach? Unlike the magic being pulled off in Halifax with sub par pitchers turning into stars, Atlanta seems to take perfectly serviceable hurlers and make them hideously bad. Okay, Pettitte hasn't been bad, and Orlando Hernandez's numbers are damn near a miracle, but Brad Penny is worse than anyone could have guessed, Ponson is 2-12, and the bullpen is atrocious. Was Jon Switzer a fluke as rookie pitcher of the year last season? 

Biggest Surprise:

Orlando Hernandez wasn't scheduled for a career comeback at such a late age.

Biggest Disappointment:

Chipper Jones has sucked balls. No other way to put it. 

Man on the Spot Update:

Sidney Ponson could very well lead the league in losses. Nice work buddy!

Tom's Take

Overview
:

Here we go again…  Nothing Jim Masters does seems to work.  The Flyers picked up some high potential-low cost OF in the off season and got their hands on some pitchers who seemed to be capable of better things, but, in the end, it’s just another last place team in Atlanta for the 4th year running.  If one guy steps it up, another will mysteriously tank and nobody, it seems, will play better on Atlanta than they did somewhere else.  What to do?  Wish I could tell ya, Jim, wish I could tell ya.

Offense:

Yep, they’re the worst in the league.  Only 357 runs scored, almost a full 200 less than Paris.  Robbie Alomar is still a top flight lead off man and Morgan Ensberg is having a career year, but other than that, there’s not much to like.  Justin Morneau’s flirtations with greatness are over, Chipper Jones is ready to go to pasture and Angel Berroa’s ST numbers were all apparently a mirage.  Pretty depressing for the Flyers’ fans and management, I’m sure.  But, hey, all the more reason to bring Dennis Dennis, Jr. up and let him grow on the job.

Pitching:

They’d be worst in the league, too, if there wasn’t a team in Nevada that is even worse.  Penny, Ponson and Meche? 7-23.  So much for the rehabs.  Pettitte is still the only thing you can call an ace here, though I guess, in contrast to what I said above, El Duque does seem to like Atlanta and has played better here than expected.  Cotts’s ST ERA was just a fluke, he’s AAA stuff.  The pen is, predictably, awful, “anchored” by closer Jim Journell and his 11.66 ERA.  Course, when you’re the Flyers, waiting around for save opportunities, you tend to put some rust on—no reason to put your best arm on that thankless task.  This team does have some good arms in the farm system and I hope Jim Masters isn’t foolish enough to leave them there much longer, though this season is probably already a lost cause.

Biggest Surprise:

I guess Morgan Ensberg hitting .316 with 34 doubles.  Golf clap.

Biggest Disappointment:

Since nobody expects anything out of Sidney Ponson, I’ll say Penny, who’s given up a whopping 151 hits in 110 innings. 

Man on the Spot Update:

No, a Flyers’ uniform didn’t bring back the Brad Penny that dominated the league for a fleeting season.  Opponents are pasting him to a .550 SLG clip and he’s only saved being booed out of town by the fact Sidney Ponson is worse.

 


Euro Division

It’s a different Euro Division in 2007.  Now, 3 teams are below .500 and only Paris seems a lock for the playoffs.  The battle could be over who avoids last and that deadly cap hit instead of over who makes the post-season.  But, you know, don’t write these guys off, any of these teams could get hot (like Ellas did, going 25-4 for a month) and change the equation.  Particularly watch out for Ellas, who get Mark Mulder back and would be able to call up Wade Miller for the home stretch if they are still in contention.

 

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 2nd in Euro / Tom: 1st in Euro

Current Standing:  63-25 (1st in Euro)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .298 / 553

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.23 / 374

Current Team Salary:  $77,260,000

All-Star Selections:  1B Shea Hillenbrand, 3B Troy Glaus, 3B Dallas McPherson, RHP Jerome Williams


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Yawn. Another year, another humbling of the league at the hands of Paris. This team continues to sport the most unbelievable offense in the league, and no matter who is on this team, they dominate. Rookies, veterans, it doesn't matter. The pitching only has to be good enough, as there aren't too many low scoring games in France. Chicks dig the long ball, even when their armpits aren't shaved and they smoke hand rolled cigarettes. 

Offense:

Should we just hand Troy Glaus the MVP award right now? This guy has 90 RBI at the break, and is on pace to accumulate over 150 by season's end. It must be nice when Derrek Lee is only your fifth leading run producer. Cliff Floyd was a huge All Star snub. How can you overlook a .381 batting average and 61 ribbies? In summary, how often do you see a lineup with 5 players hitting .600+ SLG? Not often. This team not winning would be a huge let down.

Pitching:

As we said, good enough. Okay, that's not fair. Odalis Perez has a 10-3 record, Escobar is just as good, and Jerome Williams has rebounded from an abysmal April to have an All Star first half. The bullpen has been a merry-go-round, as GM Michael Taylor has the "anti-Philly" strategy on relief; pack that pen with as many arms as is allowed. As long as the starters eat up innings, the short relief is good enough to win. 

Biggest Surprise:

Zach Day has finally lived up to his potential. 

Biggest Disappointment:

Brad Lidge isn't exactly shutting them down despite his 18 saves. Think this team misses that legitimate closer? 

Man on the Spot Update:

Joe Nathan has done quite well in relief and spot starting. Not a difference maker, but certainly not hurting the team.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

If nothing else, I’ll take credit for picking this team to win the division, since I got little else right.  Frankly, the Pimpernels have been beating the hell out of people this year, and few of their games are even close.  They could set some offensive records on the way to what is likely the only 100 win season anybody will have this year.  So, really, the pressure is just building for the playoffs where Taylor’s teams have been pretty disappointing so far.  Can they get the monkey off their backs and win it all this year?  It might depend on what sort of pitching they finally have to face off with.

Offense:

I thought losing Estrada at C and having to use Damon and Valent in the OF might take some of the piss out of this team, but I guessed wrong.  Hillenbrand and Hal Kelly have made Parisians forget about Estrada and Rollins and Glaus alone are a better offense than some teams.  They are close to hitting .300—as a team!  And they lead the league in HR, triples, and doubles.  There’s just no question this is the league’s best offense and right now Troy Glaus is the MVP with little debate-he could be able to break Barry Bond’s HR and RBI records.

Pitching:

About average for the league, but more than adequate to win with this offense.  I mean, who couldn’t win with this offense?  Odalis Perez is the prototype Pimp pitcher—just go out and throw strikes—he may both lead the league in HRs given up and wins—shades of Bert Blyleven.  Escobar, Day and Jerome Williams (after a rough start) have all been the same, though with better ERAs and then there’s Jarrod Washburn who’s gone 6-1 with a  3.77 ERA for no good reason.  Winning breeds more winning, I guess.  The pen has been better than it might seem, since Riedling, Eischen and White have combined for a 12-2 middle relief record.  Some others have been less good, but hey.  If there’s anything that Taylor would like to fix, it’s probably Brad Lidge at closer, which doesn’t look so good heading into October and makes you wish you John Smoltz back.

Biggest Surprise:

Washburn or Hillenbrand, take your pick.  And I’m sure they’d suck on any other team.

Biggest Disappointment:

Rich Aurilia.  He came back to reality in a hard way.  Or, you could go with Joe Kennedy, who, while not a disappointment for Paris, was so bad on Ellas that they practically begged Paris to take the guy after fighting to sign him.  Quebec was his destiny all along.

Man on the Spot Update:

Zach Day got with the program here—give up around 4 runs a game and you’ll win.  9-3 with a 4.02 ERA is just fine with the Pimps.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 3rd in Euro / Tom: 3rd in Euro

Current Standing:  44-45 (2nd in Euro, 19.5 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .262 / 377

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.29 / 377

Current Team Salary:  $57,250,000

All-Star Selections:  1B Carlos Delgado, LF Manny Ramirez, LHP C.C. Sabathia, LHP Billy Wagner


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Ireland has pulled off a very difficult task in the first half of this season: addition by subtraction. A few trades have shed a ton of salary but made the team better, even though the trades looked to favor the other teams on paper. Trade away Kaz Sasaki and go on a winning streak? Someone has some good mojo going in Dublin, and though this team is under .500 at the break, they have the ability to make a wildcard surge. A laundry list of players is about to come off of the DL, so look for the team to solidify and make that playoff push.

Offense:

It's been a rough time for the trainers this year in Ireland. Eight different outfielders alone have seen time in the starting lineup. When healthy, this team does pretty well for itself, with Delgado, Manny and Mondesi driving in runs in bunches. Speed has been a problem for this team, and three different catchers combined can't match Havana's backup signal caller, but overall, a good enough group.

Pitching:

C.C. Sabathia has had to shoulder a considerable load since Kaz Sasaki was sent across the Atlantic, but he has delivered with Cy Young caliber numbers. Too bad the rest of the rotation hasn't ironed itself out. Pineiro has been decent, and rookie Jeff Niemann has done okay (but not at the level of Brownlie, Wainwright or Sowers). The other spots have been a huge problem. You either have Blackley at 6-9, or worse, Appier at 0-9. Guthrie got some starts, but didn't fair too well, and now desperation has Tony Blake trying reliever Felix Rodriguez in the rotation, trying to capture some more "Kaz Magic." Billy Wagner is on pace to win the Rolaids award, but with Rodriguez in the rotation, the rest of the bullpen will suffer. 

Biggest Surprise:

That trading the best pitcher in the league didn't send this team into a tailspin.

Biggest Disappointment:

Cesar Izturis has hit well, but his runs, steals, and extra base hit totals are subpar.

Man on the Spot Update:

Jeff Niemann has held his own as a rookie, but clearly isn't getting the decisions. Just 6 in 17 starts.

Tom's Take

Overview:

Despite the fact they seemed to throw in the towel with the Sasaki trade and being sub .500 they are hanging on to 2nd place in the Euro and have faint playoff hopes as the wild card may well go to a team around .500 when it’s all said and done.  Still, how far can CC Sabathia carry this team?  After his start you get Niemann, Blackley, Piniero, Guthrie…just not the staff you think can take a team too far.  And, though now in 2nd, they are only 4 games above the last place Knights and another last place finish is hardly out of the question.  That, my friends, would sting.

Offense:

They’ve been dinged up much of the year, but that’s not enough to excuse this season, which, to say the least, hasn’t lived up to expectations.  Manny Ramirez and Carlos Delgado have done their part, but everyone else has just phoned it in.  Koskie is having an off year, Scott Hodges is in his Sophomore slump and people are ready to shoot Raul Mondesi.  After that, it’s been open try outs with some good and some bad results.

Pitching:

It’s been the CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner show.  Sabathia would win the CY if the vote were held today, and for good reason, he’s just been amazing.  Rookie Jeff Niemann has been a plus, but he’s not performing much better than, say, unheralded Larry Pappas on Ellas and he’s no franchise arm like Jeremy Sowers.  Beyond that, this team’s starting pitching is definitely sub-par.  If this team finishes 5 or 6 games out of the wild card, people will be asking if trading Sasaki was worth it.  The bullpen has really been pretty solid, with Wagner having a great year, but also solid middle relief from Nelson, Villafuerte and Felix Rodriguez.  They would be a plus if Ireland is in the playoff hunt at the end or gets to the post season. 

Biggest Surprise:

Craig Monroe, acquired in the Sasaki trade, is actually hitting to his AAA numbers with a .550 SLG so far.

Biggest Disappointment:

There are so many.  Probably Mondesi, who’s gone from MVP candidate to .254 hitting has-been who draws a chorus of boos with each at bat in Dublin.

Man on the Spot Update:

I was right about Niemann needing to step it up since Blackley and Piniero would be sub .500 pitchers.  Niemann started out hot, but has taken a beating as of late, bringing his ERA up to 4.49 and holding him at 4 wins.  Less than 10 wins from him probably means doom for this team, which Sabathia can only carry for so long. 

 





Predicted Finish:  Darin: 1st in Euro / Tom: 2nd in Euro

Current Standing:  42-48 (3rd in Euro, 22 game out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .278 / 478

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  5.16 / 458

Current Team Salary:  $81,250,000

All-Star Selections:  SS  Nomar Garciaparra, CF Preston Wilson, RHP Ben Sheets


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

You have to hand it to the Evzones, they sure have a lot of heart. After getting hit with some killer injuries, many teams would phone it in or dump salary. But Tom Hey's Ellas team has held it's own, scrapping together a team of mostly nobody's and hovering just below .500. When Mulder and Miller return, we could see the comeback of the century in the making. For now, Ellas fans are gritting it out, holding onto the hope of a brighter future.

Offense:

It always amazes me how the Evzones can sell any jerseys at the team store. Who wants a Chase Utley or Shawn Wooten home uniform? Maybe people should invest, however, as these guys, plus Rob Mackowiak, Aaron Rowand and Sean Burroughs, make up a cast of no names who are delivering the goods. You expect great things from Nomar, Wilson and Everett, and they are leading the team accordingly, but Wooten was a desperation fill in for Mike "Glass Jaw" Rivera, Utley is the least known second baseman in the league, and Jacque Jones has 11 homers in limited at bats. Sean Burroughs was a great pickup, adding another high average to a team that hits very well despite striking out a ton. Very little team speed, but we've heard that more than once in this report. 

Pitching:

With Mulder and Miller being held to just over 100 IP combined, Ellas has had to trudge out more mystery players like Larry Pappas, Ed Yarnall, and a retreaded Rick Ankiel. The joke is that these guys are doing pretty well, and having to pick two to pull out of the rotation will be a tough task when Mulder and Miller return. Ankiel is 6-1, Yarnall has a great ERA, and Pappas has done much better than anyone could hope. Kevin Millwood is the likely candidate to go, as his 7-6 record is marred by a 6.00 ERA. The bullpen needs a lift, as most relievers here have very high ERA's. Even Eric Gagne is struggling.  

Biggest Surprise:

Ankiel going 6-1? He was only 6-3 in AAA this year! He walks a lot of hitters, but he keeps the ball in the yard.

Biggest Disappointment:

Will Mike Rivera every stay healthy? This guy seems to get long term injuries on an annual basis. 

Man on the Spot Update:

Rob Mackowiak is on pace for 35+ HR and 90+ RBI. Great production for little cost.

Tom's Take

Overview:

It’s been a bizarre season in Athens, like some “Major League: Europe” movie.  The team had high expectations having missed a trip to the World Series by one game in 2006, but then put up the worst record in the league in the first month wherein they also lost their top two starters and former ROY catcher Mike Rivera.  Already giving up hope, management started trying to shed salaries and called up guys like Rick Ankiel and Shawn Wooten who had nothing to lose.  Somehow, this inspired the lethargic Evzones and they went on a 25-4 rip, getting back to .500 (for a game) and pulling into realistic contention for the wild card.  $14 million pitcher Mark Mulder is back now and the team is trading like they think they are still in it, picking up LaTroy Hawkins. If this team can make the playoffs, nobody will want to deal with them no matter what their record getting in is—healthy, this is a scary bunch and after that miserable start, this team has had their trial by fire.

Offense:

Very hit or miss as the team’s few 1 run games goes to show.  They’ve been shut down on occasion, but can explode on anyone with a barrage of homers.  Acquiring Sean Burroughs gives them 5 guys around .300 at the top of the order, and everybody has at least 20 HR power.  Nomah is having a monster year, on track for around 50 HR, which for a SS is rude.  The gamble on Mackowiak seems to be paying off as he’s on track for about 40 HR and over 100 RBI, though his eye at the plate is suspect.  Shawn Wooten, a seeming inevitability at C backing up fragile Mike Rivera has been a huge surprise, putting up a .842 OPS on the cheap.  Rivera might not have a job next spring when he heals.

Pitching:

A real circus.  The season started with the long relievers blowing everything, then the top two starters, Mulder and Miller, went down for a huge chunk of the season with injuries.  Figuring all was lost, Milt Pappas pulled what he could out of the Harry Baals, including his son Larry, and the Evzones pretty much resigned themselves to last place.  Never discount a desire not to get sent back to Fort Wayne as a motivating factor, it seems, as Pappas and Rick Ankiel have gone 10-3 since being asked to replace Mulder and Miller.  Ben Sheets has been what Ellas expected, 9-5 is fine out of him.  Millwood started 2-6, but has won 5 straight while the Greeks have openly shopped him around.  The pen has been under revision and underachieving all year, but now seems set and respectable with Osuna, Erasmo, LaTroy Hawkins, Yarnall and Gagne.  The big questions are what will happen when Mulder returns to the rotation next week, sending Webb back to FW and, hopefully, giving them an ace for the wildcard hunt.

Biggest Surprise:

Rick Ankiel.  I mean, come on.  6 and 1?!  Tom Hey signed this guy as joke figuring it’d be fun to watch him bean people in September and he’s come back and just refused to lose.  Biggest surprise in the league, I’d say.

Biggest Disappointment:

Long relief in general.  Chris Bootcheck, Brandon Lyon and Joe Kennedy went a collective 1-13 and put this team in a real hole at the start of the season.

Man on the Spot Update:

Millwood probably won’t keep his ERA to 4.40, though he’s been red hot as of late winning 5 in a row to give himself a record above .500.  Hey will still trade him if a good offer comes along, but it’s possible Millwood’s going to be in Ellas for another year if there are no takers. 

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: Last in Euro / Tom: Last in Euro

Current Standing:  40-49 (Last in Euro, 23.5 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .263 / 391

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.39 / 387

Current Team Salary:  $70,300,000

All-Star Selections:  RHP Octavio Dotel


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

The Knights have the potential to be a playoff team, but management has done very little to tweak the team into contending form. It would be a shame for London baseball fans to see their team finish in last for no reason other than lackadaisical ownership. The team had very little money to work with this past off season, but that is no excuse mid season when the team is only 9 under and in no way out of playoff contention. Will Sean O'Hallaran wake up and lead this team on a second half surge, or will the team just trudge along till season's end?

Offense:

Good but not outstanding seasons from the usual suspects (A-Rod, Sexson, Kendall, Huff). Hinske has had a pretty good year, and rookie Wilson Betemit has been solid at second base. Good health has meant not much play from the backups, which is good, as guys like Sledge and Byrd haven't been too great. Not much else to say. The lineup is just sort of there.

Pitching:

Disappointing up and down. Quality starts are being wasted by this team nearly every day, that is when games aren't being decided in the first inning when Davis starts. Mussina and Zambrano deserve better, and Brett Myers has been much better than expected. There is no reason that Jason Davis and Danny Graves should be starting for anyone in this league, but the fact that they have been allowed to kill the team 40% of the time points to a need for management to reevaluate their roster and make some big changes. No complaints about the bullpen, who are actually the best in the division. 

Biggest Surprise:

Wilson Betemit has hit for a high average and leads the team in steals. A shoe in for Rookie Hitter of the year?

Biggest Disappointment:

Why is Jason Davis still on this team again? 

Man on the Spot Update:

Brett Myers has been a pleasant surprise. 5-6, sure, but a 3.42 ERA. 

Tom's Take

Overview:

The last couple of seasons, the Knights have ridden superior pitching to finish in 2nd place despite a seemingly last place offense.  This year the pitching hasn’t been able to overcome the lack of run production and London is looking at a basement finish.  London has some offensive stars, but has the league’s weakest OF and therefore only has an average offense.  But the big difference this season is the team ERA climbing to 4.39, which is worse than Paris or Ireland and also, for that matter, Savannah.  It’s still possible for this team to catch either Ellas or Ireland, but playoff hopes seem to be pretty much dimmed.

Offense:

Actually, probably improved from last season.  Betemit is leading the league in doubles and is headed for around 50 steals, giving the team a good lead-off man.  A-Rod, Sexson and Hinske should all be around 100 RBI, so that’s fine.  Even Kendall is playing better than expected.  But the OF of Sledge (awful), Huff and Byrd or the Johnsons, whoever, is just not cutting it for this league.  I still don’t get why there hasn’t been a trade made somewhere.

Pitching:

Zambrano is the ace of the staff with a 2.82 ERA, but that’s only gotten him a 4-4 record.  Likewise, Brett Myers, who seems better than I thought he could be with a 3.42 ERA, is below .500.  Mussina and Jason Davis have been terrible, and that’s gotten them real losing records.  The pen is still strong behind Dotel and Isringhausen, but, again, it’s a luxury this team can’t afford with few power hitters and a starting staff that seems to get worse each year.  Rule V Luis Martinez has been a real find.

Biggest Surprise:

There really aren’t any big surprises or disappointments.  In nearly every way, this team is about what I expected—and that’s not so good.

Biggest Disappointment:

Ditto.

Man on the Spot Update:

Betemit’s done about all you can ask of him.  He’s hitting .288 and probably will steal around 50 bases.  The team just lacks too much for a good lead off hitter to be a difference maker.