2009 Midseason Report

It's our first year after relocation, and things just aren't turning out the way we thought. The new cities are providing plenty of different stats, but not any more wins. The South Division is completely up for grabs, and despite a string of injuries, the Invaders are playing great. It will definitely be interesting to see how these division races pan out, and if the teams that are clearly out of it will go into full scale rebuild mode. 

Time to see how we're doing prediction-wise so far this year.


North Division

Once again, it's a two team race in the North Division. The Sailors and Crunch have flip-flopped for the top spot for most of the year, and look to continue the race all the way down to the wire. Philly needs some help, but could become a factor with a good trade or two. Cleveland is playing like a team with a $44 million payroll, so no surprises there. Overall, it looks like the only team from this division going to the playoffs is the division winner, especially if Ireland keeps it going in the Euro.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 2nd in North / Tom: 2nd in North

Current Standing:  51-38 (1st in North)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .268 / 417

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  3.83 / 360

Current Team Salary:  $84,200,000

All-Star Selections:  RHP Bartolo Colon, RHP Matt Morris, RHP Eric Gagne, C Ivan Rodriguez, 1B Prince Fielder


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

It's another typical season for the Sailors. Good enough hitting coupled with a pitching staff that takes full advantage of the "arctic factor". While the team isn't as dominant with the bats, they do the small things well, playing great at home and holding a winning record against the division. Some questionable trades made many wonder what direction the team was going in, but despite the experts' opinions of Cain's moves, the team sits in first place and is among the hottest in SLB. They just can't seem to do wrong! 

Offense:

The trade that sent Choi to Savannah has taken the run production down a notch, but they still put forth a solid team effort, spreading the scoring around and providing few "easy outs." It's time for Prince Fielder to step it up now that the full time first base position has been handed to him, and though he doesn't match Choi's level of production, he does lead the team in HR and RBI. Delmon Young has shown a nice improvement in OPS, while role players like Barfield and Gibbons continue to contribute. Cain would have liked to get more out of Tejada at SS, and Andruw Jones is having a tough year with the average, but overall, the team gets it done. Ivan Rodriguez an All Star? Must be a weak year for backstops. 

Pitching:

Though the staff has a great ERA as a whole, Halifax has yet to find that magic combination of starters to get consistent wins. Bedford has been able to keep up because guys like Wainwright and Garland have gotten way too many starts, and Carl Pavano, who came in to replace Roy Halladay in the big Savannah trade, has gone just 4-8. Eric Ridener hasn't gotten much of a chance despite a 3.48 ERA...why not? Octavio Dotel is the latest in the "closer as starter" experiments, and after a disastrous debut, has posted 2 quality starts and remains undefeated at 6-0. Matt Morris has been unhittable, and with a few more decisions would be right in the thick of the Cy Young race, and Bartolo Colon has finally found a team he cares enough about to actually win. The bullpen is spotty, with Gagne dominating in the 9th, but a lot of high ERA's in middle relief. Not too many losses from the pen, however, so no harm, no foul, right? 

Biggest Surprise:

Well clearly it has to be Dotel's success as a starter. This type of experiment doesn't work most of the time (**cough**LaTroy Hawkins**cough**)

Biggest Disappointment:

Eric Ridener's lack of starts. He may be doing well in a setup role, but he has to be better than Jon Garland! 

Man on the Spot Update:

Adam Wainwright has been a disaster (3-8, 6.10). Thankfully he has been moved to long relief, as he was long overdue. Just 5 QS in 14 starts.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

This team is doing pretty much what we expected: winning, but not blowing anybody out of it.  They are probably going to finish somewhere between 90-95 wins, which means they are going to have to be better than Bedford for the rest of the way out to get a spot in the playoffs.  Trading Choi away makes some wonder if they haven’t already started the rebuilding process, but for now, they can give it their best shot and hope to have plenty of cash on hand for whatever the plans are come off season time.

Offense:

You’re tempted to say it’s “bad” given the lack of .300 hitters and Prince Fielder being the only real threat to have a 40 HR season, but they do enough to win, don’t they?  The biggest positive surprise has been TJ Mackey putting up a .320 average and giving them an IF with a  bright future along with Josh Barfield, who is back to driving in runs.  Miguel Tejada has been contributing nicely, on pace for 25-30 HR and 100 RBI, but he’s a FA, which means trouble for a team that has already bid goodbye to Choi and Miguel Cabrera.  A lot of PT from Garrett Anderson and Cristian Guzman has done them no favors.

Pitching:

You have to start by noting that Matt Morris, 7-2 1.76 has been all but untouchable.  He and Colon , who with a team high 10 wins still might make me the prophet and win the Cy Young, are carrying the load.  The rest of the SP have been pretty much average at best and Pavano, 4-8 4.63 and Wainwright with his 6.10 ERA have been downright shitty.  The bullpen, led by Dotel until he was asked to start has saved the team from the worst of the 3-5 starters.  That is, the bullpen except for Braden Looper who is having a horrible season.

Biggest Surprise:

TJ Mackey, who the Sailors would be happy to have hit .280 let alone .320.

Biggest Disappointment:

Either Pavano or Looper, but probably Pavano who really should be a solid #3 starter and is one of the few players who end up having a higher ERA in Halifax then his career ERA.

Man on the Spot Update:

Barfield is leading the team in AB and is 2nd in RBI and HR, so he’s doing what is asked of him.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

A meager $800,000 under the cap, but will be able to cut ties with Carl Pavano's $9 million albatross at season's end.

Minor League Wrap Up:

A pretty poor showing by the Iguanas this year. Elmer Davie was brought over from Savannah, and he did moderately well, but not what you wanted to see overall. The pitching was a nightmare. Better results in Rookie League, where newcomers Mark Pawelek and Jason Brock both had good debuts on the mound.




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 1st in North / Tom: 1st in North

Current Standing:  50-39 (2nd in North, 1 game out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .265 / 360

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  3.43 / 314

Current Team Salary:  $76,500,000 (Luxury Tax: $250,000)

All-Star Selections:  RHP Roy Oswalt, 3B Eric Chavez


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Bedford has taken the momentum from their 2008 playoff appearance and converted it into more wins in 2009. But they are winning in a different way, relying more heavily on great pitching while scoring fewer runs. The offense has picked it up more recently, but overall home runs are down and some big injuries have forced some role players into full time positions for long stretches. Luckily for GM Richard Gin, the pitching staff has been nails all year and will keep this team in it right till the end.

Offense:

Scoring is way down compared to a year ago. David Ortiz had a terrible start, dropping to 8th in the order while batting less than his (considerable) weight. He has battled back to .273 and leads the team with 15 homers. That should indicate just how little power the team has displayed this year, as 80 team dingers is second to last in the league. The team makes up for it by being in the Top 5 in the league in team doubles and triples, preferring to play small ball and string hits together to score. The team has pretty decent speed, with Cintron, Pena and Bradley all posting double digit steal totals. Overall, the team needs much better production from Chavez, Vidro and Hernandez to really have a chance to win it all this year.

Pitching:

Awesome. If the team can score 4 runs, you're going to win as a starter. Roy Oswalt is the front runner for Cy Young, posting a tremendous 12-3, 1.93 first half. Joe Nathan is glad to be in Brooklyn, going 10-3, 2.18 for the only team he has ever had success with. The rest of the rotation is decent, but not great. Lohse has 8 wins, Perez keeps you in games. William Bray is the only starter with an ERA over 4.00, and he's 2-8. Shows how low scoring Bedford games usually are. The bullpen is fantastic, easily the best in the league. Luis Vizcaino already has 20 saves, while Ben Weber has a sparkling 1.66 ERA. Nick Neugebauer isn't good, but he's in long relief, so he gets a pass. 

Biggest Surprise:

After a breakout year offensively, the deadball era seems to have returned to Brooklyn.

Biggest Disappointment:

Eric Chavez is scuffling compared to his career numbers.

Man on the Spot Update:

Oliver Perez was a surprise auction find, but is just 4-6. His ERA has been good, so he could easily finish up at .500 or higher.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

Bedford got off to a very bad start and for a while it looked like there was no way this year was the one they’d catch Halifax .  But, somewhere in the last month, they got it going and now are just a game out of first.  It’s no shock that it’s pitching that’s doing it for Bedford and Chavez and Ortiz doing most of the RBI work.  They could sure use another banger in the offense and probably should find another starter so Bray can work out his troubles in the minors.  Could they be in for a pick up of one of Ellas’ starters?  You’d have to think Pedro would be a different guy pitching in the NEFAC. 

Offense:

Not overwhelming, but why would it be?  They’ve gotten more than they could ask for from Alex Cintron, who I predict will tank it in the 2nd half.  But that’s OK since Vidro is due for a spurt of production.  Chavez, Ramon Hernandez and Ichiro are all having down years, so it’s a wonder this team is where it is.  Ortiz is finally showing some power, so that’s been welcome.  Short verstion: they all need to step it up if they want to finally overtake Halifax .

Pitching:

Generally good but a lot of that is due to the super years from Oswalt and Joe “Thank God I’m home” Nathan who both have 15 QS in 18 games.  Ben Weber is an ageless wonder in the pen joined by Luis Vizcaino who is hittable this year but still doing very well. Oliver Perez isn’t winning that many games but he’s turning in solid starts.  Lohse is his usual quiet winning self.  They do need to find another answer at the 3rd starter spot where William Bray is not working out.

Biggest Surprise:

Cintron, if only for the fact if you’d told me they’d have to start him, I’d have thought they’d be in trouble.

Biggest Disappointment:

Either Vidro, for having a down year or Trot Nixon for being the player we always thought he was.

Man on the Spot Update:

Bobby Crosby has been benched or injured much of the season; on the other hand Cintron is hitting .311 which makes it much less of a issue whether he’s doing well or not.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Just above the cap, meaning trading will be dicey if it's a veteran-for-prospects deal. Only five free agents, with Oswalt and Ortiz the obvious choices to restrict.

Minor League Wrap Up:

I predicted them to finish first, but they ended up with the worst record in AAA. Over the long run, they certainly showed power (especially in a year where very few balls left the yard), but the batting averages were pretty poor. The thin pitching staff gave up a lot of runs, with the exception of Orber Moreno, who simply went 3-10. More or less the same story in Rookie League. These guys just can't hit very well.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 3rd in North / Tom: 3rd in North

Current Standing:  42-48 (Last in North, 9.5 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .269 / 395

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.45 / 416

Current Team Salary:  $77,760,000

All-Star Selections:  LHP Barry Zito, RHP Brad Lidge, C A.J. Pierzynski, SS Rafael Furcal, CF Preston Wilson, RF Aubrey Huff


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

The Phynatics are a team still trying to find their identity. Most critics felt that last year's team was too light in the hitting department, but now, despite some upgrades, the team still fails to get above .500. If it isn't one thing it's another, it seems, but Philly is just 6 under and could put together a couple of strong weeks and get back into the race. GM Brian B has made some great additions via the trade, and should continue to work the trade wires to see what he can pull off this year. It's a tough position to be in this close to the deadline, as the team is built around veterans, and it doesn't seem worth blowing the whole thing up just yet. The next couple of weeks will make a big impact on whether the team is a buyer or seller at the deadline.

Offense:

Definitely improved over last year, thanks to the additions of Huff, Wilson and Blalock. Josh Phelps is no longer the star attraction in this lineup, which is definitely a good thing, and overall run production is way up from last year. There are some bargaining chips here, as the team seems to have too many third basemen (Rolen, Blalock) and outfielders (Huff, Wilson, Phelps, Green, Beltran, Ford). Someone ought to be shipped off to fill other holes. There were a surprising amount of All Stars from this offense, but that is probably a result of Philly representing the team opposite the Euro division. Paris had 5 better hitters who were snubbed this year.

Pitching:

While the offense improved, the pitching has declined, which is the major reason for the team's struggles. Kerry Wood (my bad pick for Cy Young) leads the team with a 9-4 record, but the rest of the starters aren't doing so hot. Zito made the All Star team at just 7-7, while Mulder (3-8) and Garcia (6-7) are both struggling with ERA's in the 5.00+ range. The bullpen is okay, though there are way too many losses there. Last year's Rolaids winner Shingo Takatsu doesn't seem to be fooling anyone anymore, losing 7 in relief with a 4.74 ERA. Jake Westbrook adds 5 more losses. Brad Lidge has been lights out when he is actually handed a lead. 

Biggest Surprise:

That Joe Mays is outpitching Mulder and Garcia to this point.

Biggest Disappointment:

The aforementioned Mulder and Garcia. What a mess.

Man on the Spot Update:

Shawn Green hit cleanup on opening day, but has since been limited to just 181 at-bats, hitting a single homerun. 

Tom's Take

Overview
:

This team reminds me a lot of Ellas.  They look great on paper, but when they take the field, it’s usually a different story.  Thanks to Cleveland ’s fire sale, they seem likely to stay out of last, but closing an 8 game gap with the top teams in the North is a tall order.  Add to that some looming FA issues and you get the sense it might be time for Philly to take a dive and trade off the elderly and salaried to free up serious cash for the off season.

Offense:

If you’d have told me at the start of the season that perennial disappointments Rafael Furcal and Carlos Beltran would be hitting over .300, I’d have suspected this team would be in contention.  But then again, Shawn Green only has one HR and Scott Rolen has become about the 10th best 3B in the league.  Their best player is probably Preston Wilson, but his trade value might be too high to keep him on, especially since Beltran could cover CF for them.

Pitching:

Honestly, since they won the World Series, this team has never been able to get the pitching thing right again.  And it’s not that you can blame the management.  Who knows what Barry Zito you’re going to get any given year?  Freddy Garcia sucks again, go figure.  Mark Mulder has 4 great pitches and can’t buy an out.  Shingo Takatsu?  Are there evil doubles of this guy?  Hard to find the answers.  Good things this year are solid starts from Kerry Wood (hello Free Agency, I guess he CAN pitch) and Brad Lidge who is a man among boys in the bullpen.

Biggest Surprise:

Brian B finally got Carlos Beltran to hit—.301 no less.

Biggest Disappointment:

How about “Man on the Spot” Mark Mulder?  I’ll say I called that one pretty well.  Rolen and Takatsu give plenty of competition.

Man on the Spot Update:

Mulder is 3-8 with a 5.32 ERA.  That tells you a lot about Philly’s season.  Boy is he in for a pay cut.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Comfortably under the cap, so they have room to take on salary if the right deal presents itself. Will see Kerry Wood's $11million contract come off the books, but may have to come close to that to match him at the next auction.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Had a pair of hot hitters this season in D.C. in Ryan Ludwick and Brian Friend. Friend is now in Scotland, where that average is almost assuredly going to drop 100 points. Good hitting overall, and pretty decent pitching as well. Shane Mungitt did well before heading overseas in the same trade as Friend. The best performer in Rookie League was newly drafted closer Robert Rorhbaugh, who went 4-1, 2.88 in 25 IP. 

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: Last in North / Tom: Last in North

Current Standing:  34-54 (Last in North, 16.5 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .263 / 386

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.57 / 429

Current Team Salary:  $44,450,000

All-Star Selections:  1B Justin Morneau (alt.)


Darin's Take

Overview
:

The Dawgs wowed baseball fans with the staggering number of player moves they made this off season, but who knew they would continue the trend throughout the first half of the season? I guess you do what you have to when you're under such extreme financial constraints, but who guessed Cleveland would make 14 trades before the All Star Game? Well, one hopes that GM Mike McAvoy knows what he's doing, playing it cheap this year in hopes of clearing cap space for a big spending spree in the next auction. The luxury tax hit will come off the books, but at this rate, half of that will get negated by another last place finish. Too bad, because if the Dawgs could manage to bypass Philly this year, they would get even more money to play with next year.

Offense:

Pretty good team batting average, but not many runs. Bad luck? Bad chemistry? Who knows, but the only All Star on this team was Justin Morneau, and he was added by the commissioner after the voters didn't elect anyone. Some of the young hitters have shown flashes of ability, particularly Tony Montana behind the dish and Jack Schalk in center. Expect to see more rookies get some AB's come September and wait till next year.

Pitching:

A big mess, clearly. Most of these guys ought to be pitching in Akron, not Cleveland. You're not going to win a ton of games when you have Sean Burnett, Jordan Jackman and Phillip Shirek all pitching for the major league team. That isn't to say that they won't be good in the future, but the lack of veterans on this staff means there are a lot of guys learning on the job here. Justin Verlander and Jeremy Sowers are considered old timers on this staff for chrissakes. I guess the best way to see what you've got and what you need is to just throw them out there and see what you get.

Biggest Surprise:

The continuous trading. There was a point when the team was ahead of Philly in the standings, but after awhile, there were diminishing returns on all these moves. Too much looking ahead to next year?

Biggest Disappointment:

Magglio Ordonez really doesn't do well anywhere, does he? 

Man on the Spot Update:

Justin Morneau has been fine, though he hasn't been seen on many league leader boards. Eric Valent is no longer with the team.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

Making more deals than Monte Hall, the Dawgs have shuffled and sold their way into mediocrity.  Granted, they’ve cut the payroll down to where they should be able to get whoever they want in the off season (yeah, we mean you Sabathia) and they are unapologetically going young, but can you build around Sowers and Verlander?  They both have had up and down careers.  The bullpen is full of guys with 5.00+ ERAs and there is a bunch of AAA level talent swinging the bats.  If it works, good on Mike McAvoy for having the guts to rip the team apart and start over, but if not, this is unnecessarily ugly even for a rebuilding team.

Offense:

Call it .250 Hitters Anonymous.  When the “big bats” are Morneau and Maggs, it’s kinda gruesome.  But on the other hand, Schalk , Montana and Jim Karsay all pretty good guys to start building around at those tough up the middle spots.  But, you’d better hope the checkbook comes out in the off season.  What did they 86 Tike Redman for?  That dude was burning up the basepaths!

Pitching:

Sophomore slump for Verlander has really put a chill on the idea this team would have a rotation for the future to be proud of.  Sowers is back to an above average pitcher now that he’s returned from Ellas, but that came at the cost of the Dawgs only veteran star, Mike Hampton.  Plus Eric Ridener, who showed some real promise, was dealt away.  They need an “ace” bad, either one to step up or one they can buy.  There’s not much good to say about the bullpen outside of closer Pedro Liriano who is not seeing much action these days.

Biggest Surprise:

All the trading.  Nobody gets unpacked in Cleveland .  Restovich individually proved he was more than just “Pimp Juiced.”™

Biggest Disappointment:

Verlander at 3-9, though that record isn’t all his fault.  At least Sowers’ year gives some hope that it is all just the mysteriously real “Sophomore Slump.”

Man on the Spot Update:

Kawabata was a good call.  He didn’t turn it around so he got traded to Ellas where he’s been made the closer and gives Sasaki somebody to rap with.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

$10 million under the lowest cap in the league. When the luxury tax is lifted and all those buy outs come off the books, the team should have a good amount to spend this off season. Magglio Ordonez is the only player worth restricting this year.

Minor League Wrap Up:

The Akron Tires won the AAA crown, which should tell you that Mike McAvoy is doing a good job at stockpiling talented youth. Rian Luiz could be a great leadoff man if he can show better base stealing acumen, while Rabbit Watson might be one of the best hitting prospects in SLB. Sean Burnett and Travis Blackley were two promising young arms in the Ireland system who came over via trade, and both did very well at the minor league level. Rookie League showcased more of Luiz, plus great stints by Kozlowski and Kuo.


South Division

Seems like there is a different team on top every day. Probably because there is. The only team clearly out of this race is Baltimore, whose move south has done nothing to help their fortunes. Even Atlanta looked like they were going to compete until their mysterious white flag trade several weeks back. They aren't completely out of it; in fact, both teams from Georgia are in this race, which is a first this late in the season. This is going to be fun.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 1st in South / Tom: 1st in South

Current Standing:  47-41 (T-1st in South)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .275 / 439

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.36 / 397

Current Team Salary:  $84,450,000

All-Star Selections:  RHP LaTroy Hawkins, 3B Mike Lowell, SS Nomar Garciaparra, CF Darin Erstad, RF Bobby Abreu


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Here we are at the All Star Break, and Havana is in first place. Not because they are repeating their dominant performance from a year ago, but because it happens to be their turn in the weekly rotation of South Division teams vying for the top. As it stands, this team will be lucky to win the division much less repeat as World Series Champions, due mostly to a much maligned pitching staff. The Diablos would be in 3rd place in either of the other two divisions, showing just how weak Havana (and the entire South Division) is. Still, someone has to win it, and there is plenty of post season experience on this roster. And don't we have a history of the worst playoff team winning the whole shebang here in SLB? 

Offense:

The daily lineup is the strong suit of this year's Diablo team, thanks mostly to the off season additions of All Stars Nomar Garciaparra and Bobby Abreu. Esteban German has been the spark at the top, as shown by the team scuffling in the 4 weeks he was out of the lineup. Jason Lane is having another outstanding year (after losing his job to Travis Hafner in Spring Training....oops). Luckily, both players can play in the same lineups, as Jeremy Reed has had a terrible time and looks to be anchored to the Diablo bench. It's a rough go at the catcher spot, as neither Varitek nor Martinez have distinguished themselves with the bat. Besides German's stint on the DL, the lineup has stayed pretty healthy so far, meaning the bench (while good) hasn't seen much action.

Pitching:

Problematic to say the least. Bobby Brownlie has followed up his near-Cy Young season with a paltry 6-6, 4.18 first half. Johan Santana has been the most consistent pitcher from last year's staff, and Danny Haren has kept this team's head above water, going 8-3 despite a few weeks on the DL. Newcomers Odalis Perez and Javier Vazquez have sucked donkey dong (to put it mildly), going 1-9, 5.37 and 6-9, 6.02 respectively while giving up a combined 49 HR in just over 200 IP. Vazquez lost his job to Jason Davis, a reclamation project from London who has faired admirably with a 5-3 mark. The completely revamped bullpen has had its ups and downs. Brock Landers, the lone holdover from '08, leads the pen with a 1.30 ERA, and closer Danys Baez has been worth every cent, saving 12 games while posting a 1.96 ERA. Both deserved the All Star nod over LaTroy Hawkins, but you know how loyal those voters are to the established stars. Francisco Cordero has been a bust.

Biggest Surprise:

Danny Haren was terrible in his first tour of duty with Havana, but has been the best off season pitching signing to date.

Biggest Disappointment:

Javier Vazquez had some great years in Halifax, but the fly balls he gives up travel a lot farther in the heat of Cuba.

Man on the Spot Update:

Danny Haren has been the model of consistency, going 8-3, 3.04 in the first half.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

Our predictions for this team were pretty spot on.  First place by default really.  If anybody else in the South could get their shit together, the Diablos would be in trouble, but since 87 or 88 wins might take this thing, Havana is more than capable of winning another division title.  But then again, the only new pitcher that was working out, Danny Haren is down so Jason Davis has to step it up.  Did you read that?  “Jason Davis has to step it up.”  Yeah, so this might not be their year.  But somebody in this division has to want it enough to make the moves, it might be Keesing.

Offense:

On offense, this may be a better year than the Diablos expected.  Great years are being had by Bobby Abreu and a resurgent Jason Lane .  Even better, Darin Erstad is defying my all knowing prediction he would have a crappy year.  Only C and RF, where Jeremy Reed seems about to lose his job to Chipper Jones are big problems.  Do they hope Varitek is “due” or look to go get a C from another team?

Pitching:

This is where there have been some real problems.  The league has watched the tapes on Bobby Browlie and he’s not likely to win 20 games again—more like he’ll be lucky to finish .500 or better.  Javier Vasquez has been a major bust here and Keesing can’t pay somebody to take him off their hands. Johan Santana is still rolling along and all kidding aside, Jason Davis is proving he can be a useful arm outside of the London Black Hole.  Bullpen has been awesome with both Brock Landers and Danys Baez shutting people out if it goes to the 8th with a lead.

Biggest Surprise:

Jason Lane, .341/25/57, is back…

Biggest Disappointment:

…which means Jeremy Reed, .191 BA, sucks now.  Can’t these two ever get back their rookie mojo?

Man on the Spot Update:

Ahem, to repeat:  Odalis Perez has had the luxury of spending his career pitching for Paris where a career 4.78 ERA makes you a winning pitcher.  Can he get it done without that offense behind him?  I’m thinking, no.  Give that man a cigar. 

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Close to the cap, but not afraid to go over come deadline time. Benitez is the only important player coming off of his contract. Won't have even 1/4 of the money to spend as last season.

Minor League Wrap Up:

This year's Havana team was in Seattle, and the team did pretty well in the Pacific Northwest. There weren't necessarily any standout offensive players, though several hitters had 10 HR, 30 RBI performances. Jumbo Ketchup had a fine year, but is he really built for the majors? Seibert and Gomez did well both in AAA and Rookie League, and draftees Phillips, Cupps and Bulger all had fine stats in the short season.




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 2nd in South / Tom: 2nd in South

Current Standing:  47-41 (T-1st in South)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .270 / 431

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.07 / 373

Current Team Salary:  $77,600,000

All-Star Selections:  SS Alex Rodriguez, LF Albert Pujols


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

The Thunder continue to defy the odds year after year, fielding a team with glaring holes and inconsistent play yet always managing to compete in the division. It hasn't been a terribly active year for GM Ben Royer, whose had his thunder stolen (every pun intended) by McAvoy on this year's trade market. The laissez-faire attitude towards the team may be its undoing, as a lack of attention has been paid to injury problems and lineup flaws. But hey, if Royer doesn't care about his team, why should we?

Offense:

Always a strong point in Knoxville, and this year is no exception. Pujols and Rodriguez both were voted to the All Star team, and either could be in MVP contention at year's end. A-Rod started slowly, but is back up to his MVP form of a year ago, threatening to pull off another 40/40 year at the very least. Miguel Cabrera has been good, but has hardly been worth the huge amount of cash given to him this off season. After several seasons and a bunch of teams, Scot Podsednik has found a place where he can be a consistent threat. It's a good think too, as Carl Crawford has a long term injury that takes his 100 SB potential out of the leadoff position for most of the year. 

Pitching:

You're never impressed by Tennessee pitching in Spring Training, but they always manage to do well. This year, however, there aren't a lot of guys getting by on run support alone. Four starters have 7 wins, lead by Jake Peavy (7-1), whose season was cut short by a bad elbow. Cory Lidle has pitched in his absence, and has yet to throw a quality start. Wouldn't David Bush (5-1) be a better option? Probably, but Royer has yet to acknowledge Peavy's injury at all, so the players are probably drawing straws to see who plays at this point. Overall, the pen is bad, and its 18 losses have held the team back.

Biggest Surprise:

Podsednik was terribly inconsistent most of his career, but has really flourished in Knoxville. 

Biggest Disappointment:

Jason Jennings has a great 3.49 ERA but is just 3-9. Seems the offense is taking the day off when he starts.

Man on the Spot Update:

Peavy was great, and would have been an All Star had he stayed healthy. We questioned whether he was a one-year wonder in this year's Heaters, but he has really blossomed into a solid starter.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

By hook or by crook, Tennessee always seems to have a crack at making the playoffs.  They’ll have to win the South to do it this year as the WC looks to go to Ireland , but they certainly could pull it off.  They lack the kind of ace starter that could carry them to a division title or start in a 3 man rotation in the post season.  They really need to make a deal to get that and maybe a reliable pen arm or two.  Would they deal A-Rod or Pujols to get it?  Time to find out how bad they want it isn’t it? 

Offense:

Basically the #2 offense in the league behind Paris (OK Ellas has 1 more run but, eeh).  And they oughtta be, right?  A-Rod is coming off his monster MVP year with, you guessed it, another monster MVP year.  If Rockwell comes back down a bit that is.  Pujols and Josh Hamilton are both looking at 40 HR/110 RBI years and the biggest surprise has been Scott Podsednik becoming, arguably, the best leadoff man in the game.  You could wish for a better catcher than Joe Mauer, but who doesn’t have that problem?  Would get a big boost if Carl Crawford comes back healthy.  But, basically this is an overkill offense in search of a pitching staff to go with it.

Pitching:

Jeff Weaver leads in innings, that should say a lot, right?  The biggest news is the rough year for Jason Jennings who is 3-9 despite a respectable 3.49 ERA.  The only really reliable starter they’ve had is Peavy and he’s down.  What to do?  I think this team needs to put together a deal and soon if they don’t want to finish another year in second.  Some teams are clearly becoming “sellers” but will Tennessee meet their asking price?

Biggest Surprise:

Jake Peavy still has to get it for his  7-1 start, even though his injury is going to cloud his chances for any awards.

Biggest Disappointment:

Carl Crawford.  .214 and injuries don’t make a $9mil salary easy to justify.

Man on the Spot Update:

Podsednik really is hitting about .300 making him a real Comeback Player candidate.  Too bad Crawford has been sidelined most of the year.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Scraping the cap number, but 13 free agents come off the books to offer some relief. Doubtful that Pujols goes for only $6.25 million again.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Not too much to report, besides the fact that Steve Smitherman has done everything possible to earn a shot at starting in the majors. David Asher was good enough in Thunder scout's eyes to earn a promotion to fill in for the injured Jake Peavy. 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 3rd in South / Tom: 4th in South

Current Standing:  46-42 (3rd in South, 1 game out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .271 / 427

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.94 / 448

Current Team Salary:  $69,650,000

All-Star Selections:  RHP Phillip Humber, RHP Roy Halladay, 2B Mike Young, LF Lance Berkman


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Well lookey here! We don't usually see the Sabers with a record this good until the end of the year (when its too late). But some savvy player movement coupled with the emergence of Phillip Humber has propelled Savannah into contention. They've been streaky, but have scored some big sweeps against division foes (I can attest to a four-game spanking at their hands a week back) so their division record is second only to Tennessee. Are there more moves on the horizon, or is GM Rich Vohs content to ride this team as far as they'll take him?

Offense:

Usually the weak spot of this team, and while they aren't blowing anyone away, they are improved. Landing Hee-Seop Choi was a major boon for the franchise, but the team has to live without his .353/.386/.754 play for another 6-8 weeks. Luckily, he hasn't been a one-man show for the Sabers, as Lance Berkman and Mike Young (both All Stars) have added a great deal to this lineup. Adam Dunn has also played more consistently that in past years, giving this team a variety of weapons up and down the lineup. Team speed is still a big weakness here (leadoff man Mark Kotsay has just 2 steals), so perhaps that should be addressed as we approach the trade deadline. 

Pitching:

Ladies and Gentleman, I give you your Rookie Pitcher of the Year and Cy Young winner of the future Phillip Humber. Savannah's #1 prospect has taken the league by storm so far, posting a league leading 12 wins while throwing quality starts in 13 of his 17 outings. Roy Halladay (the other part of the Choi deal) has also been impressive, joining Humber on the All Star team with a 10-4 record of his own. The rest of the rotation has its problems, particularly Kaz Ishii; he should have lost his spot in the rotation weeks ago. Unfortunately, there isn't a great deal of depth on this staff, so options are limited for the rotation. The back end of the bullpen has been very consistent, especially a resurgent Billy Koch. There is plenty to improve, however, and Vohs should explore all opportunities.

Biggest Surprise:

We knew Humber was good, but this good?

Biggest Disappointment:

Grady Sizemore looked like a nice pickup, but he has been relegated to bench duty and has pretty pedestrian numbers thus far.

Man on the Spot Update:

Adam Dunn has stepped it up, blasting 16 homers and posting a .580 SLG%.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

Because of Atlanta ’s brief run at the top and Havana ’s recent return to form, you might not have noticed that Savannah is only a game out of first place.  In fact, they have been there most of the year.  Is this team for real?  I think so; they made a smart move to pick up Hee Seop Choi and one more move to land a starter or maybe two middling SP to get Carpenter and Ishii out of the rotation and there’s no reason the Sabers can’t compete with Havana and Tennessee all year long.  It might be a matter of pride, too.  The other Georgia embarrassment, Atlanta, is already in self-destruct mode so Savannah has a chance to be the first team to give the long suffering Georgians a team to get behind, but they get the same challenge: are you willing to move the players to play for the big time stakes?

Offense:

With the addition of Choi to give Berkman some protection, this is an offense that can hold its own with anybody, at least at the top of the order.  Berkman’s year is MVP worthy if a couple of the top guys have any injuries.  The biggest overachiever has been Mike Young who nobody imagined would be a .330 hitter.  Jason Kendall continues to be a frustrating player, but if he gets it going, the Sabers could really pound on some people. RF of Nady and/or Sizemore hasn’t been league average good so maybe a OF trade would be a good move for Vohs to swing along with adding a #3 starter.

Pitching:

It’s pretty unbalanced.    Humber and Halladay have been great, Schmidt and Buehrle just OK and the rest awful.  Koch and Cordero are holding together a sub par pen.  You have to plan on Schmidt improving but that means you need, at minimum 2 more SPs to come from the farm or a trade. 

Biggest Surprise:

Phillip Humber, much like his offensive counterpart, Chest Rockwell, is on pace to win both ROY and Cy Young.  Living up to the hype?  And then some, baby.

Biggest Disappointment:

Jason Schmidt’s 9 QS in 18 starts is not what you’ve come to expect from him.  If he’s pulling his load, this team is in first.

Man on the Spot Update:

Beltre is on pace for maybe 20 HR and 70 RBI.  That’s not getting it done.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

No salary problems, and a whopping 17 players will file for free agency. Could be a very different looking team next year.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Had a deceptively good team. Deceptive because there were a pile of veterans playing well, which isn't really fair. Brad Hawpe kicked everyone's butt (as expected), and Todd Linden had great power numbers as well. Nice speed, with four players over 10 steals (rare in AAA). Esteban Loaiza seems to suck at every level. Sean Doolittle doesn't look like he's panning out. Pity. 

 





Predicted Finish:  Darin: 4th in South / Tom: Last in South

Current Standing:  42-46 (4th in South, 5 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .254 / 380

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.22 / 389

Current Team Salary:  $55,550,000

All-Star Selections:  RF Will Hunting


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

June 17th, 2009, the day that will forever live in infamy for Flyers fans. On this day, with the team record at 33-31 and sitting just one game out of first place, GM Jim Masters traded away Carlos Delgado, and the hopes and dreams of a magical season died. Delgado was easily the team leader in most offensive categories, but the always money conscious management sent away his big salary for some spare parts. Since that day, the team has gone 9-15, and only by the grace of the godawful Panthers are they not in last place. Management calls it "fiscal solvency", I call it "bait and switch", but either way, Atlanta fans' hopes were built up to have the first winning season in team history, and it was all taken away. Looks like this is a team that will forever be content to simply not finish last as long as the left side of the ledger always balances with the right.

Offense:

You have to tip your cap to the young players on this team, who are doing their best to make up for Delgado's loss. Will Hunting made the All Star team, but you could argue that Chris Kolkhorst in the face of the Flyer lineup day in and day out. Terrible injury problems at the catcher position have forced Stan Bowen behind the backstop (though Troy Paris is ready to come back after the break). Derek Jeter was sent away on waivers, leaving Raul Mondesi as the only proven veteran in the lineup (and his name was on the trade block before the ink was dry on his contract). Dennis Dennis Jr. has picked up the pace since joining the lineup on a fulltime basis.

Pitching:

Easily the best staff every assembled in Atlanta, but not without its problems. The starting five has remained relatively healthy, starting every game to date. Dontrelle Willis has the highest ERA, and that's only 4.13, as he has shown better consistency that in years past. The bullpen has some real stinkers in it, namely Gil Meche and Armando Almanza. Still, you can't expect a complete turn around in just one season, and the foundation is certainly there to continue improving. Travis Hughes and Wade Towsand are the best (and youngest) arms in the pen.

Biggest Surprise:

Neal Cotts, who continues to fly under the SLB radar. 6-5, 3.50 ERA and 12 Quality Starts. Who knew?

Biggest Disappointment:

We've said all that needs to be said. 

Man on the Spot Update:

We predicted a "Georgia Statistical Correction" for Raul Mondesi, and though his numbers are less that those posted in Ireland, he has still been a consistent run producer for this lineup.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

Man I hate to do this.  I’d love to be able to say, “Finally after years in the cellar, the Flyers are within striking distance and ready to pull out all the stops to see baseball in Atlanta in October.”  But this is Jim Masters’ team, not mine.  So, they seem to be shooting for 4th place, worried about salary and free agency and who is a rookie--not about winning.  Only a couple games back, the Flyers have already traded Carlos Delgado, who was kicking serious ass and looking to unload Mondesi and Kim both of whom have made important contributions to putting this team in first place if only for a short while.  If I had season tickets here, I’d wipe my butt with them and mail them to the GM’s office if they trade all 3 of these guys.  Getting out of 4th place is cool and all, but this team could easily win this division if they cared to.

Offense:

There are some real run producers here.  Will Hunting is a solid everyday player and before trading Delgado the Flyers had 4 guys likely to finish with 30 HR or more, including Kolkhorst, Chapman and Mondesi.  Chapman would be another legit star if he could get his average up.  Kolkhorst got snubbed for the All-Star game despite being as good as anybody at CF right now.  Sadly that just gives Jim a reason to let Lemming rot in the minors since you know there’s no way he’s trading a Franchise Player.  Team is very weak up the middle with Closser, Thurston and Weeks.  A trade for a SS/2B would be a good move.

Pitching:

A good year from Kim and D-Train has given the Flyers 4 solid SP who are averaging a QS over half the time plus Runelvys whose ERA is 4.04—so not bad.  The pen is still shit-tacular though Travis Hughes is having a pretty good year and Wickman hasn’t blown too many saves despite a 5.04 ERA.  They could surely land a couple of good arms for the pen with a couple trades but, again, I don’t really expect to see that—probably they will ride out the year with Almanza, Jackson and Belisle still in the mix.

Biggest Surprise:

Chris Kolkhorst’s tiny frame doesn’t scream “power hitter” but he’s on his way to a monster year with close to 40 dingers and over 100 RBI.  And scouts thought he was just an average player.

Biggest Disappointment:

Dennis Dennis, Jr. is finally playing, though not every day, but the results are mixed.  With Kolkhorst and Hunting out there plus Darren Lemming ready to play any day now, the Flyers may as well trade him if they can get something of value in return.

Man on the Spot Update:

Willis doesn’t have a winning record, but his 4.13 ERA is much better than the 6.00+ I’d feared, so he’s doing his share of the bargain.  So far as I know he isn’t being shopped around either.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Almost $4 million under, but don't expect the team to add salary. About $10 million in salary and buy outs coming off the books, which should more than make up for any arbitration increases this regime dreads.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Great year from one of the most productive farm systems in SLB. Darren Lemming was outstanding in his first full season, posting an OBP of nearly .500 while batting .358. David Bailey and Gabriel Hernandez both look ready for a September call up (if not sooner), and Mike Beck has done nicely in relief. Lemming and Lambert didn't cool off a bit in Rookie League. Nor did Bailey, whose 4-1, 1.50 record was outstanding.

 





Predicted Finish:  Darin: Last in South / Tom: 3rd in South

Current Standing:  30-58 (Last in South, 17 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .256 / 347

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  5.19 / 467

Current Team Salary:  $68,850,000 (Luxury Tax: $385,000)

All-Star Selections:  LF Manny Ramirez


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Well, I sure got this one right. Not that I wish Baltimore any ill will, of course, but for some reason I really felt this team would struggle this year. Predictably, the move from Atlantic City to Baltimore had no effect whatsoever in the team's performance, and the lack of impact moves this off season has left the Panthers in the rest of the South's wake. And even though it looks like Atlanta has phoned it in this season, it seems unlikely that this team can work its way out of last place this season. Time to take inventory and think about next season.

Offense:

Just can't get it done, scoring 120 fewer runs than the pitching staff has allowed. Even though Manny Ramirez and Vlad Guerrero have put up their usual stats, the rest of the team hasn't contributed at the level they should. Rookie 3B David Wright has been great, but CF has been a black hole, as has catcher. Bernie Castro is doing his typical "steal 40 bases but hit .240" routine that we've all seen many times before. Injuries have played a big role, with playing time by Guerrero, Sexson and Giles limited by various ailments all year. What more to say...they just aren't scoring runs.  

Pitching:

Wow, ouch. The search for a 4th and 5th starter has been pretty rough, wouldn't you say? A new 3rd wouldn't hurt either. Not a winning record to be found in this pitching rotation. Derek Lowe, who looked to be a smart pickup after he was DFA'd this spring, has been a disaster, going 2-12 and leading the league in losses. Rich Harden hasn't enjoyed his new home either, and Dennis Tankersly has taken a serious step backwards in '09. Brad Penny has been the best pitcher by far, and is probably your best candidate to actually post a winning record this year. There have been some bright spots in the pen, including Villareal and scrap heap pickup Guillermo Mota. The less said about the rest the better.

Biggest Surprise:

Richie Sexson seems to have been dropped from the lineup in favor of Craig Brazell. Jigga-what?

Biggest Disappointment:

You mean besides Lowe, Harden, Edmonds, Tankersly...

Man on the Spot Update:

I said that Tankersly would have to match his 10-4 record of 2008 for this team to have a shot. Guess, what? He's 5-7. Time for the bugle player to play "Taps" and put this team out of its misery.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

This has to be a frustrating year for Jose Gutierrez and the Baltimore faithful.  Everything they do seems to go wrong and this team has been headed in the wrong direction for 2 years now.  Neglect of the pitching staff in favor of big name OF has put this team in a bad place.  I’m not sure if they will rely on trades, the draft or the auction to turn it around, but the Panthers need to get a grip soon since there’s no chance of them moving any time in the near future having just relocated.

Offense:

Weakness is up the middle with LaForest a below average catcher, which is saying a lot in this league, and Castillo, Castro and the CF revolving door of Edmonds/Coco Crisp all having trouble hitting their weight.  Castro you can forgive because he’ll probably lead the league in SB and should be judged on runs scored.  At the corners this team is mean with rookie David Wright, Manny Ramirez and Vlad—when healthy.   Some injuries this year really hurt and you can’t blame the owner for that.

Pitching:

Probably the worst in the league right now.  Dennis Tankersley is the only guy you are happy to send to the mound and he’s 5-7.  Brad Penny has a good ERA and a .500 record, but it’s still Brad Penny.  Harden has been a mild bust for the price it took to pry him off Bedford .  The 4-5 starters have been just horrific with Lowe, Lawrence and Brazelton combining to go 4-18.  Anybody with more than 10 innings in the bullpen has been just wretched and they’ve traded away some good relievers over the year.  Jose could dump this whole staff for people in the FA pool and probably not do much worse.

Biggest Surprise:

Rookie David Wright is the real deal at the plate.  With the glove he’s a catastrophe, but he could give Rockwell some competition for ROY if voters overlook his defense.

Biggest Disappointment:

Luis Castillo is awful, but I don’t know that’s much of a shock.  Rich Harden probably wins this as yet another “he looked fine in Bedford ” case. 

Man on the Spot Update:

Jose gave up on Fossum before he got any starts.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Sadly, this team will lose money for finishing last AND from luxury tax next year. Talk about making a bad situation worse.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Pretty mediocre numbers put up in Miami this year. Carl Torres was alright, Jonathaon Zeringue had a good RBI total, but overall, it was sorta "meh". Craig Johnson had nice numbers in Rookie ball, but Ron Mexico was a bit disappointing.


Euro Division

Yes, Paris is even better this year than last year. No, it isn't fair. Ireland has played fantastic ball but continues to slowly lose ground in the race. The rest of the division has problems, and all need to decide who is worth keeping and who they can get some value for in the next few weeks. It would take a miracle for anyone to catch up this late.

 

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 1st in Euro / Tom: 2nd in Euro

Current Standing:  62-27 (1st in Euro)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .302 / 533

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.38 / 412

Current Team Salary:  $85,500,000

All-Star Selections:  RHP Jerome Williams, LHP Billy Wagner, CF Johnny Damon, RF Jody Gerut


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Wouldn't it be easier for me to cut and paste last year's write-up here? If I sound like a broken record, feel free to scroll down to Ireland's section and pick up reading from there. Everything Michael Taylor touches turns to gold, and despite a few losses in the off season, the Pimps are better than ever. Already a staggering 35 games over .500, this team would be running off and hiding if it weren't for the Invaders and the incredible season they are having as well. As usual, the team scores runs in bunches, and when the pitchers post a QS, good night Irene! The team deserved more All Stars, but among the many controversies surrounding this year's midsummer festivities were 22 man rosters. At least three more Pimps should have made the cut.

Offense:

And....cue Xzibit: "Jody Gerut, you've officially been Pimped!" Who needs Restovich and Valent when you can just pick any mediocre corner outfielder out of the blue and make them an All Star? Gerut, who had just 180 career at-bats prior to 2009, leads the team in average and is second in HR and RBI. Could he possibly win the MVP? Troy Glaus and Dallas McPherson might have something to say about that. Or Derrek Lee. Graham Koonce. Jimmy Rol....ah never mind, these guys rock, next issue! 

Pitching:

Typical Paris pitching staff. A few dominant starters, some guys getting by on run support, Wagner kicking ass in the 9th, and a bullpen that's just good enough to get it done. You would think that with all the high scores that there wouldn't be many close games, but Paris is actually leading the world with a 21-5 mark in one-run affairs. Jerome Williams and Kelvim Escobar are earning their big off season contracts, both winning in double digits already. Zach Day is to Paris as Joe Nathan is to Bedford: there's just one place they are happy to pitch. You wouldn't think a team could win so much with Graves and Waechter in the rotation, but there it is staring at you. Eischen, Urbina and Riedling have been fantastic. 

Biggest Surprise:

Danny Graves was horrible in London, but has been very good in Paris. Wait, why is that a surprise?

Biggest Disappointment:

Taylor's complicated platooning schemes have kept us from seeing Derrek Lee get a full 650 AB's the past few years.

Man on the Spot Update:

Zach Day probably doesn't have the ERA to fully justify winning Comeback Player honors, but last year's Goat has certainly turned it around.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

Jeez, what a shock, the Pimpernels seem to have everything going right—players that sucked or came off the scrap heap play like MVPs, nobody of consequence gets injured, they win every game they are close in.  Amazing, whoda thunk it?  This team kicks ass, their park has balls flying out of it and for some reason the game’s AI never screws them over like it does pretty much everyone else.  I guess it was just dumb on my part to think losing Odalis Perez was going to matter here.  Not much more to say.  If they aren’t WS champs I’d be pretty stunned. 

Offense:

Best in the league, as usual.  Who to give the MVP to?  McPherson, Glaus or Gerut-eenie, meanie, minie mo.  I really hope the FA auction breaks up this team, there’s only so many ways you can say “kicks everyone’s ass” year after year.

Pitching:

Guys go out and throw the ball when the Pimps aren’t scoring runs.  It’s part of the game--if you care.  A good time to break for getting nachos or peeing in those troughs they call toilets in Frenchified baseball parks.  Or get some escargot, which I hear is kick ass if you can forget what it is.

Biggest Surprise:

Jody Gerut, but don’t even get me #$%^ing started about how he’d be lucky to hit .250 let alone .350 on any other team.

Biggest Disappointment:

Derrek Lee is barely on pace for 100 RBI.  For shame.  My grandma could drive in 120 for this team.

Man on the Spot Update:

Zach Day got off to a bit of a rough start and then pitching coach told him “Just throw strikes and let the offense win,” from which point he’s gotten on pace to go 17-8 or so.  Gotta love pitching for the Pimpernels.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Paris is one World Series appearance away from hitting the $90 million salary ceiling. This might be the year that finally breaks up the offense, as Lee, Glaus, Damon, Gerut, Rollins and Hillenbrand are all up for contract, and you know the rest of the league will gobble those guys up like crazy.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Landon Powell defied his ratings and put up big numbers at both AAA and rookie ball this year. The magic Paris touch? Tim Raines Jr. is going to demand a trade soon if he doesn't get some major league playing time. Bizarre stat of the season: Chien-Ming Wang managed to net 9 saves in just 8 1/3 IP, all in the last 2 weeks of the season. James Gant was unbelievable in Rookie League, going 3-0, 0.24 with an OpAvg of .175 and a WHIP of 0.84.




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 2nd in Euro / Tom: 4th in Euro

Current Standing:  55-32 (2nd in Euro, 6 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .263 / 378

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  3.34 / 305

Current Team Salary:  $77,950,000 (Luxury Tax: $3,000,000)

All-Star Selections:  RHP Mark Prior, RHP Jeff Niemann, RHP Brandon Webb, LHP Kelly Wunsch, C Thurman Murman, 2B Scott Hodges, SS Orlando Cabrera, RF J.D. Drew


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

"I'm making the call that Ireland will finish in second this year..." Yes, that's right, I actually have a prediction right to this point. Shockingly, the Invaders have been able to keep up this level of play despite some devastating injuries. The pitching has been outstanding, and though the young offense isn't scoring a ton of runs, it is keeping the team in low scoring games, most of which Ireland is winning. The second best record in the league gets you second place in the Euro these days, but the Invaders have the inside track on the wildcard, and barring a big slump in the second half, ought to see some action in October.

Offense:

The lineup was just good enough for the first couple of months this season, getting good but not outstanding production from Drew, Gutierrez and Hodges. Now Carlos Delgado is back, giving the team a major shot in the arm. Orlando Cabrera has been a solid addition this year, and it certainly looks like management picked the right catcher to keep, trading Montana and retaining Murman. Franklin Gutierrez has had his injury problems, but his average has been outstanding. Good #3 hitter in this lineup.

Pitching:

You would think that losing C.C. Sabathia, who had a 1.82 ERA in 8 starts, would kill this team. But manager John Madden has taken advantage of every off day in the schedule, only using a 5th starter when absolutely necessary. Prior, Webb, Niemann and Anderson have all been outstanding, forming arguably the best rotation in baseball. Niemann is rebounding from his sophomore slump, while Webb and Prior are both in Cy Young contention. The bullpen could use maybe one more arm to really solidify it down the stretch, but Hodges, Rodriguez and Wunsch have all be great.  

Biggest Surprise:

Scott Hodges hitting .330 and making the All Star team.

Biggest Disappointment:

Jose Jiminez, whose ERA is up over 6.00 despite giving up 0 HR this year.

Man on the Spot Update:

Kelton and Gutierrez were cleanup hitters on Opening Day. Gutierrez has been moved to a more appropriate slot now that Delgado is on board, and Kelton's playing time has been limited to just 174 AB's.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

This would be my pick for the biggest surprise team.  Nobody doubted the pitching here and they’ve been the league’s best staff most of the year despite a major injury to Sabathia.  But really I thought the offense was Scrub Central.  Whoops.  They’ve outscored their rivals by 70 runs and put 4 guys in the All-Star game (though it’s a heck of a stretch to think Cabrera or Drew deserve to be there).  For now, the Wild Card is this team’s to lose, though 5 games is hardly impossible to overcome, especially with the in-division games that are coming up for the Invaders.  But with this pitching, don’t count them out for anything—including the World Series.

Offense:

With the addition of Delgado, they are probably a middle of the pack offense, which is plenty if you have the league’s best pitching.  So far, Hodges, batting .330, Murman with 18 HR and Gutierrez, see below, are leading the team.  Hodges, Placido Polanco and Gutierrez are all playing out of their minds, so they could be due for a second half “correction.”  If that happens the team could go into a real slump, but if not, they should have the firepower to get to October and then…

Pitching:

…You have a playoff rotation of Sabathia, Prior and Webb.  Yeee-ikes.  Even Jeff Niemann and Brian Anderson are having killer years, meaning the 4-5 starters offer no relief for other teams.  Mort Hughson as a replacement for Sabathia has been a bust, so they can’t get CC back too soon but he’s probably out until September.  The bullpen has been surprisingly good, especially Trey Hodges (huh) who is leading in appearances and Kelly Wunsch.  Add Felix Rod and Matt Anderson with their 100mph gas and this bunch is pretty solid.

Biggest Surprise:

Franklin Gutierrez is having a career year—about 80 points above his lifetime average--out of nowhere.

Biggest Disappointment:

Alexis Rios.  .288 OBP isn’t anything like what you might have wanted to see from a former AAA phenom. 

Man on the Spot Update:

This might have been one of my best “Man on the Spot” calls ever—not ‘cause I was right, but because I was wrong.  Gutierrez hitting .336 has given this offense a big boost but if Tony tries to tell you he knew this was gonna happen he’s full of shit.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Ireland is the only team to really dip into the luxury tax this year, but with a chance to make some postseason money, it's a worthwhile risk. How much do you think Sabathia will make next year?

Minor League Wrap Up:

Tom Hammond stepped up as the "next big thing" in Australia this season. Mort Hughson went 7-0, earning him a promotion to spot start in the majors. Newcomer Paul Phillips had the best Rookie League numbers of anyone on the staff. 





Predicted Finish:  Darin: 3rd in Euro / Tom: 1st in Euro

Current Standing:  42-47 (3rd in Euro, 20 game out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .270 / 432

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.48 / 415

Current Team Salary:  $77,950,000 (Luxury Tax: $1,362,500)

All-Star Selections:  RHP Kazuhiro Sasaki, C Johnny Estrada, 3B Sean Burroughs, 3B Chest Rockwell


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

The Evzones are a team with an identity crisis. The offense has three rookies in the middle of the order, while the pitching staff is full of playoff seasoned veterans who are built to win now. Predicting this team to have a winning record didn't seem like such a stretch this Spring, but Ellas is struggling in the least expected places. The young hitters have all blossomed into legitimate major leaguers, while the tried and true veteran pitchers have really let the team down. So what's the next move? It's a quandary, as GM Tom Hey can hardly be blamed for the shortcomings of guys like Pedro Martinez and Kaz Sasaki. Catching Ireland seems like a long shot, so how to best position oneself for 2010 while maintaining third place?

Offense:

Really playing great ball. Lead by ROY (and probably MVP) candidate Chest Rockwell, Ellas is third in the league in runs scored. Rockwell leads SLB in HR and RBI; astounding, considering scouts didn't even give him "chip" status prior to the 2007 Amateur Draft. Utley and Burroughs have been their usual outstanding selves, and Johnny Estrada has outperformed most catchers offensively. Rookie Walt Coon hasn't blown the league away like Rockwell, but has quietly contributed 17 HR of his own. Aurilia and Nevin have been fine filling in the lower half of the order. 

Pitching:

It's Mystery Science Theater on this starting rotation. Hampton and Miller have done what you'd expect, going 8-3 and 9-4 respectively. The others, however, have mysteriously fallen way below their career stats. Kazuhiro Sasaki is 3-6, Ben Sheets is 3-6, and Pedro Martinez is 5-8 with a 4.57 ERA. Time to fire pitching coach Pascual Perez? How many pitching coaches can a team have in one year? The bullpen is simply a nightmare as the Malakadome is becoming known as the place where great relievers go to die. Rookie Ray Werth leads the pen with a 5.40 ERA. Yeah, it's that bad.

Biggest Surprise:

Rockwell, no doubt. Who knew he would be the second coming of Albert Pujols?

Biggest Disappointment:

Pedro. Sasaki gets losses because of his low stamina, but Martinez really has no excuses.

Man on the Spot Update:

Rockwell never showed his power potential in AAA, but is on pace to hammer 50+ homers in his rookie year.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

I swear I’ll never pick my team to win shit again.  What a pathetic bunch this team is.  But, really, if you have Sasaki, Pedro and Ben Sheets who had a combined career W-L of 185-80 going into this season and they are a combined 11-17 this year, who do you blame?  I dunno.  Start talking about curses.  Or, as GM Tom Hey is doing, start moving people and making changes.  One change seems to be that the roof is gonna be closed next year.  “Well, we had a dispute with the union while construction was being done—I mean, you’ve heard the term ‘Greek Time’ right?  So we just left the roof open.  This off season, we’re hiring some Turks off the books and closing that sucker.  It’s enough to drive you to the Ouzo.”

Offense:

Second best in the league, so you can’t blame these guys too much.  Rockwell is worth a ticket alone and he’s got a chance to break some RBI records.  I’m not sure how you don’t send Chase Utley to the All-Star game as he’s pretty clearly the best 2B in the league.  Burroughs is on pace for another 150 run scored year, he’s becoming a pretty top notch lead off man.  The only real disappointment has been Stieb, who probably won’t be more than a backup.  Guiel and Dalton as backups haven’t done much.  Dave Peppers is gonna be a monster one day, but the Evzones aren’t going to waste his rookie status on this abortive season.

Pitching:

Well, they are lucky to have Wade Miller back aren’t they?  Especially given they were more running up the salary on him than determined to get him.   That was a lucky “mistake.”  Mike Hampton has been a perfect fit for this team, so signing him to another 3 years will probably be a big off season priority.  The pen is just uniformly awful including Yarnall and Patterson who both have been fine until this year’s godforsaken season.  What the hell, really, what the hell?  No wonder Tom Hey hates this team and is looking to move anybody and everybody.

Biggest Surprise:

OK, Darin picked Rockwell to be ROY but who saw this coming? If we voted today he’s probably the ROY and MVP, though Glaus or A-Rod will probably get the latter when it’s all said and done. 

Biggest Disappointment:

It’s hard to pick just one.  But Pedro Martinez had nobody but himself to blame for being 5-8 and the Evzones can’t give him away it seems.

Man on the Spot Update:

Sowers got dealt for Hampton , a deal that worked out pretty well for both teams.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

They're over $1 million into the luxury tax, and won't have tons to spend next year if they choose to retain Jeter.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Not terribly great. Hey has to like what he sees in Ryan Langerhans, who could step in for Phil Nevin next season if the team continues to build a young lineup. Not team speed at all. Glen Perkins had another good year, but Christopher Lambert isn't progressing as quickly as Ellas would like. Dave Peppers rocked the RL, which isn't surprising considering his power is rated higher than most major leaguers. Lambert faired better in the short season, while Ryan Ostrosky went bananas (2-0, 0.53)

 



Predicted Finish:  Darin: 4th in Euro / Tom: 3rd in Euro

Current Standing:  35-52 (4th in Euro, 26 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .231 / 278

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  3.88 / 368

Current Team Salary:  $77,350,000 (Luxury Tax: $675,000)

All-Star Selections:  LF Hideki Matsui 


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Unlike Baltimore, Scotland's relocation has had a drastic effect on the team's performance. They now lose in a completely different way! Instead of failing in 10-8 games, they now regularly lose 2-1 or 1-0. Why? The cold wind of Edinburgh, coupled with the titanic dimensions of Stirling Castle Kilted Stadium make for the biggest dead ball park the league has ever seen. The pitchers are loving it, of course, but the offense can't do squat and the team is struggling to outpace London for 4th place. Perhaps some stadium remodeling is in the cards for next year?

Offense:

This team was built to bash in the desert, but now they can't get anything to leave the yard. The team has hit a league low 52 HR, and just 8 at home! Eight! "It's ridiculous," said Hank Blalock, the 3B who was recently traded to Philly. "In that weather, the walls seem like they're 600 feet away." The team can't hit anywhere, averaging about .230 at home and on the road. B.B. Boo-Ya, last year's runaway ROY winner has really struggled, and a bizarre lineup, with Helton batting 8th among other things, is failing to score any runs. 

Pitching:

Scotland has been a pitcher's paradise, with all the high priced veterans posting superb numbers at home. Burnett and Brush both have ERA's in the 1.60 range at home, while Kevin Millwood's ERA is a full 2 runs lower at "The Kilt". The young, overpopulated bullpen is struggling, meaning they probably won't be good anywhere. The key will be to find a stadium model that can balance out the hitting and pitching.

Biggest Surprise:

Larry Brush is hanging with his more expensive counterparts.

Biggest Disappointment:

Boo-Ya. He was never a power hitter, and would seemingly flourish in a huge park where he could split the gaps and run for days. 

Man on the Spot Update:

Burnett has been fantastic, but it's done the team little good.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

Ay, welcome to Scottie-ball, no homers a huge park and lots of under achievement!  Methinks that things here aren’t quite what GM Bill Norris had in mind when he packed up the desert road show and moved to the craggy mountains of Edinburgh .  So now what?  Follow the Bedford lead.  You can get away with pitchers that give up too many hits or HR on other teams (Odalis Perez I mean you) but you need to get the best contact hitting you can put your money on.  The Rebels need to rebuild the offense and probably should start shopping Burnett and Beckett who are getting paid too much to pitch on a team that doesn’t need that kind of stuff to get outs.  We’ll see how busy Bill gets near the trade deadline.

Offense:

Abysmal to be frank.  It’s sort of unfair to compare anybody to Paris , but they are at risk of scoring half of what the Pimps do.  That’s for shame there.  It’s not just that they are not hitting homers now they are in a new climate, they aren’t hitting period.  Nobody is even at .280, for chrissakes.  You’d think that Boo-Ya and Soriano would be the ideal middle infield but Boo-Ya is having a horrible year and Soriano, while probably the team’s top hitter is hardly putting up screaming numbers.  Matsui has been sucked into a black hole here and with his contract, who will gamble on a trade?  Not easy to know what to do, is it?

Pitching:

Good ERAs, bad W-L records.  AJ Burnett is 2-7 with a 2.47 ERA if that paints the run support picture for you.  Beltre and Brush now look much better thanks to the new park.  Millwood will be off the books soon and lucky to get a job for more than league minimum.  The bullpen is really a mess and you may as well clean house here and start over fresh next year.

Biggest Surprise:

John Buck, the Rebels catcher, has been on the doubles leader board much of the year.  Sure shocks me though it doesn’t exactly vault them into contention.

Biggest Disappointment:

BB Boo-Ya wins this one in a landslide.  Dropped about 100 pts. off his average and you’d have thought he’d be perfect for this team playing in a park made for speed and hitting the gaps.  For shame.

Man on the Spot Update:

Blalock got traded to Philly.  What’s up with everybody trading their “Man on the Spot” this year?

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

They are under the cap now, but some earlier trades put them about $700,000 into the luxury tax. Seven free agents, but most are pretty important parts of the team. Decisions, decisions.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Jason Young and Jared Weaver were the stars of AAA this year, giving the team its first legitimate prospects in a long time. The team added Shane Mungitt via trade and Eulogio De La Cruz via the draft, giving them the two hardest throwers in minor league ball. Both saved 3 games and kept their ERA's under 3.00.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: Last in Euro / Tom: Last in Euro

Current Standing:  36-54 (Last in Euro, 26.5 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .238 / 308

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.44 / 418

Current Team Salary:  $58,400,000

All-Star Selections:  RHP Jason Isringhausen, RHP Brett Myers


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Losing has become the status quo in London, where the payroll stays low and the team stays bad. Is it time to consider a new ballpark? Seems like there are some pretty good hitters on this team every year, but they can never hit well or score any runs. The pitching is predictably bad; if Kyle Newby is your ace, you know how this story ends. Scouting has to be called into question here at some point, as London has picked as high as Atlanta in several drafts, but hasn't produced nearly as strong a farm system. Is there anything to be done to put the team far enough ahead of Scotland to stave off another finish in the cellar? 

Offense:

Maybe park factor isn't the problem. This team just can't hit. They are actually hitting 10 points higher at home than on the road, but that basically means crappy and slightly less crappy. Blame the London fog? Perfectly good sluggers like Teixeira, Giles and Kearns struggle mightily on this team, and when the rest of the team is full of bench quality players, there are huge problems. Mike Rivera has finally kept himself off the DL, but hasn't shown much for it. Injuries have been a problem, and GM Sean O'Hallaran failing to address those injuries is an even bigger one. There was a point where there were only 8 healthy hitters on the 25 man roster! Not cool man, not cool. 

Pitching:

There have been some very good pitching performances on this team the year. Kyle Newby hasn't been one of them. I was secretly rooting for him to not win a game all year, but he managed a few victories in late June and early July to dash my dreams. Clement, Myers and Wolf have all been great, which is shocking considering those guys have such horrible track records. The last pitching slot has been a revolving door of failure, as Carlos Hernandez, Paul Davis, Adam Eaton and Eric Milton have combined for 10-19 record. Even K-Rod can't pitch here. Time to finally trade Jason Isringhausen for a top prospect? 

Biggest Surprise:

Clement, Wolf and Myers are a combined 143-189 in their careers, but are 16-12 in 2009.

Biggest Disappointment:

Mark Teixeira's SLG is under .400. 

Man on the Spot Update:

Yeah, Newby. Think he'll be back in the minors after his Rule V status expires? Yeah, me too.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

Do the Knights suck again?  Is the pope Catholic?  I don’t know what to say other than this is a team that really is about AAA level.  The only offensive player I’d even trade for is Aaron Rowand and that’s mostly due to his cheap contract.  Isringhausen is a good RP, but do they want to trade their last legit All-Star (Brett Myers is not legit, sorry)?  Tough call, but there’s just not much else they can do.  Morales, Broadway and Buckner could all be coming soon, so maybe the best plan of action is no action.

Offense:

Just frickin’ shameful.  A .238 team average is a disgrace even for London .  12 HRs leads the team, so maybe 25 for the year?  Oof.  I’d say who is the exception, but, uh, there isn’t one.  They all pretty much suck.  Yeah, Rowand is having a decent year, but decent is the key word there, not great by any means.  A lot of these dudes are way overpaid, too, like Giles and Teixeira.  If it were me, I’d start firing people and let the rookies take the field.  At least you’d have cash to blow in the off season.

Pitching:

Hey, Randy Wolf is having a good year—clap louder, damnit!  And, yeah, Brett Myers is an All-Star.   I could live with Matt Clement’s numbers if I were Tony Blake.  It’s a start, right.  Man, does anybody know what happened to K-Rod?  His career is about on ice by now isn’t it?  Trade him to Scotland or Bedford , see if he can still get anybody out.

Biggest Surprise:

Matt Clement, who has had a chance to suck on many teams is having a good year ERA wise, though the team isn’t scoring him much in the way of support.

Biggest Disappointment:

Maybe Eaton or Carlos Hernandez since London thought they could land a scrap heap gem and both are showing why nobody else wanted them  If you go by expectations, Teixeira is a bust with his .226 average.

Man on the Spot Update:

Newby is 2-9 with a 5.21 ERA.  Not exactly ready to match up with the Mark Priors of the world.

Free Agent/Salary Situation:

Need to avoid last place or else they'll hit the minimum cap number of $60 million next year.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Great year in Hiroshima, meaning this system may finally be producing some quality players. The pitching was really great, notably Luis Martinez and William Buckner. #1 overall pick Lance Broadway did well in his first taste of pro ball, while Francis Beltran did great in both leagues.