2010 Midseason Report

Power is shifting in the league this year, with farm systems producing the next generation of stars and big trades upsetting the divisional and wildcard races. Only a few teams are really out of it at this point, and with the trade deadline looming, titles may be won on the phone as much as on the field. Who makes the moves to leap ahead, and who gets left behind? 

Time to see how we're doing prediction-wise so far this year.


North Division

Darin's Take: This is easily the weakest division in the league; we could potentially see a team with a losing record win it. Frustrating for all the teams vying for the wildcard for sure. The Irony is that the team who keeps trading younger (HAL) is the one winning, while the teams who are trying to "win now" are failing miserably. Cleveland seems to be the most determined to trade their way into contention, so that's the team I'm keeping my eye on.

Tom's Take: Not to put too fine a point on it, but this division is pathetic this year.  Only the Sailors hover above .500 and this despite going through a “rebuilding” year.  Cleveland and Philly are teetering on the verge of “basket case” status as they seemed to be primed for competitive seasons but are falling well short of expectations.  Then there’s Bedford, who, for no clear reason, has played much worse than we’ve come to expect from them.  Chances of the SLB champion coming from this division: slim and none.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 3rd in North / Tom: Last in North

Current Standing:  46-43 (1st in North)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .281 / 464

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.83 / 462

Current Team Salary:  $55,550,000

All-Star Selections:  2B Josh Barfield, RF Delmon Young, RF Jay Gibbons


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Despite a concerted effort to make the team cheaper and younger, the Sailors still maintain first place in a disappointing division race. They would be in 4th place in either the South or Euro, but you play the hand you're dealt, and there is no reason why Halifax can't make the playoffs for the 6th straight year. The pitching is clearly not as good as past years, but the young hitters are really stepping it up. Plus, these kids are getting a full year of "on the job training", so despite what could be some ugly individual performances, the big league experience is a huge plus for future seasons.

Offense:

Delmon Young: MVP? Could happen if he keeps this up. After several years of unreached potential, Young has really busted out with some big numbers. He is 1st in the league in HR, RBI and Walks, and Top 5 in Average, SLG, Hits and Runs. Pretty damn impressive. Doesn't hurt when you have a supporting cast of guys like Jay Gibbons (.344, 14 3B's, .408 OBP) and Prince Fielder (16 HR in 194 AB's). T.J. Mackey has a good average and is scoring runs, but isn't creating much offense with his bat. Jon Poterson is one of several Rule V success stories this year, while Barfield and Davie keep on keeping on. The team lacks speed and has had a ton of injuries. 

Pitching:

It's truly Matt Morris and the scrubs. A quick glance at the ERA's on this team make you wonder how they could possibly have a winning record. Eric Ridener and Adam Wainwright have been serviceable but have been helped by run support, while Fossum, Garland and Switzer have all been thumped. Rookie Jered Weaver is learning how to pitch the hard way, giving up 103 H and 16 HR in just 82.1 IP thus far. You hope his confidence isn't completely gone. Craig Hansen was acquired right after being drafted in June and has pitched 5.2 scoreless innings and is 5 for 5 in saves. Nice trade, eh?

Biggest Surprise:

Jay Gibbons usually has good hitting numbers, but his OBP and extra-base hits have been phenomenal. 

Biggest Disappointment:

Jered Weaver. It's tough to get too down on a rookie, but he looked like a Top 5 prospect at the time of the trade. 

Man on the Spot Update:

Weaver. ERA over 6.00. Hasn't seemed to hurt too much though.

Tom's Take

Overview:  

One wonders what Lars would have to do to make this team lose (Hint: Rick Ankiel still needs a job).  In what was supposed to be a fire sale year, the Sailors find themselves still in first and making an idiot of this Hot Stove writer.  Granted, if they swapped places with London, they’d be last in the Euro, but with nobody in the North even playing mediocre ball, the Sailors could end up in the playoffs anyway.  So, the team has a real dilemma: trade up and take a chance at the championship and some more cash or keep to the plan even if they win by “accident.”  What to do, what to do?

*

Offense:

One of the great surprises of the season has been the Halifax offense.  Never really one of the best even in their championship years, the Sailors have the 3rd ranked offense ahead of such hyped outfits as Ellas and Tennessee.  What’s going on?  Well, Prince Fielder and Delmon Young weren’t part of the fire sale, and they are kicking but, especially Young whose 25 HR and 78 RBI lead the league.  Elmer Davie and Jay Gibbons have provided .300 + hitting from the OF and a variety of new comers like Poterson, Fick and Mackey have helped to give at least some production out of the difficult C and IF spots.

Pitching:

This is by far the worst Sailor pitching staff we’ve seen since the league’s first season and, given the cold weather’s usual effects on the ball, they have to be even worse than they look.  Holdover from past glories Matt Morris is still having a good year with a 3.37 ERA and Adam Wainwright is 8-6, but past that, there are more than enough 5.00 and 6.00 ERAs to go around.  Jered Weaver has been a bust and the guys getting the most work in the pen, Garland, Switzer and Fossum are all getting shelled.  They do seem to have found their closer of the future in Craig Hansen who went from draft pick to trade bait to closer in a week nailing down his first 5 save opportunities with near perfection.

Biggest Surprise:

Elmer Davie—or TJ Mackey or John Poterson.  All 3 have proven their AAA careers were no flukes.  Nobody is winning the MVP from this bunch, but they, led by Davie and his .500 SLG help explain why the cheap Sailors are still competitive.

Biggest Disappointment:

Weaver, see below.

Man on the Spot Update:

Jered Weaver was either brought up too early or just plain sucks, your pick.  With a 6.01 ERA in usually pitcher-friendly Halifax, I’m going with “sucks” until I see otherwise.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Wow, Kurt Lipton came out of nowhere! Plenty of good looking pitchers, none of whom are ready.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 2nd in North / Tom: 1st in North

Current Standing:  40-48 (2nd in North, 5.5 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .265 / 410

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.60 / 417

Current Team Salary:  $63,250,000 (Luxury Tax: $2,8250,000)

All-Star Selections:  RHP Don Drysden, LHP Mark Mulder. 2B Jose Vidro


Darin's Take

Overview:

Tom and I both had high hopes for this team, but so far, they just aren't getting it done. A little bad luck here, an injury there, and the team just hasn't gelled. While the Dawgs are by no means out of the race, they should really concentrate on simply not finishing last in order to help their growing financial problems. Their recent trade with Havana is steps in the right direction, and alone may be enough to outpace Philly or Bedford. But once again, the team seems to lack a direction. I mean, how many times can you acquire and then trade away Justin Verlander?

Offense:

Pretty terrible barring the past few weeks. When you have guys like Freddy Sandoval, William Thompson and Gerald Laird out there every day, do you expect to contend? Granted, big bats like Tony Montana have been injured, but mostly the weak hitting was a product of severe payroll restrictions. But now, GM Mike McAvoy has added a slew of All Stars to help wake up this sleepy lineup. Andruw Jones came over from Halifax, Hideki Matsui from Scotland, and now Mike Lowell, Darin Erstad and Jason Lane are in from Havana. If the team can't score runs now, there really is no hope.

Pitching:

Mark Mulder is a deserving All Star, and fellow lefty Jeremy Sowers is having a solid year as well. Run support has left them a game over .500 combined, but that looks to change. C.C. Sabathia has been decent, but has yet to live up to his paycheck. Brandon Webb has completely fallen apart since leaving Ireland. He was an All Star last year, but has yet to win a game for Cleveland, giving up 94 hits in just 78.2 IP. Jordan Jackman got off to a shaky start, but may just be a decent enough 5th starter. The bullpen has All Star Drysden, All Star snub Braden Looper, and now adds LaTroy Hawkins. Good start, but middle relief is still suspect.

Biggest Surprise:

Don Drysden's career ERA was near 5.00 before this turn around season. Can he close?

Biggest Disappointment:

Brandon Webb by a landslide. He was 17-10 for Ireland last year, and is 0-5 for Cleveland. You can't blame McAvoy for making the trade, but still, he's a front runner for Goat of the Year at this point.

Man on the Spot Update:

My guy was Trot Nixon, who is now in Scotland via the Matsui deal. Good trade. 
Tom's Take

Overview:

Boy is this team a world class disappointment.  With an offense that had no glaring holes and a solid rotation built around Sabathia, Verlander and Sowers, this looked like the Dawgs year to run.  Add to that the fact Bedford is having as bad a season as expected and Halifax is rebuilding and what, really, is Cleveland’s excuse?  The season isn’t over and Cleveland is still trading like a team in the hunt, but when the season review is in, you might be left wondering just what the heck GM Mike McAvoy is up to.  This is a team that once had a very promising young, cheap rotation in Sowers, Verlander, Ridener and Kawabata.  They’ve traded all of them away, though Sowers they got back in another trade.  The Brandon Webb trade has been a fiasco and I’m not sure Verlander for Matsui is going to go down as a good move.  But, you just can’t keep going back and forth between going young and playing it all for this year.  This team can’t seem to settle in on “the plan” and stick to it.

Offense:

The Dawgs are an average offense hitting about .265 with some occasional pop.  Jose Vidro has been a nice addition and Tony Montana has finally come into his own, on pace for 40 HR this season.  Cleveland felt the offense wasn’t getting it done so they traded young arm Justin Verlander to pick up occasionally spectacular Hideki Matsui and landed 3 Diablos—Lowell, Erstad and Lane.  The latter trade probably makes or breaks the team as those 3 have been productive on good teams, but you can just as easily imagine them having so-so years in Cleveland.

Pitching:

Their 4.61 Team ERA is nothing to get too happy about and without a comeback year from Mark Mulder, it would be a pretty sorry bunch indeed.  CC Sabathia’s 4.17 ERA hardly justifies the $42million that the Dawgs showered him with in the offseason.  Jeremy Sowers has put up decent numbers and Don Drysden is finally a respectable middle reliever.  Adding LaTroy Hawkins and Looper, who has been untouchable this year, helps an average pen become one of the better ones in the league.  They’ll need to be if Jordan Jackman is going to be the 5th starter all year.

Biggest Surprise:

Mark Mulder seems back to form this year going 6-5 with a 3.12 ERA.  He could even be considered a bargain now.

Biggest Disappointment:

Has to be Brandon Webb.  The Dawgs traded away Tejada and Nady to pick up Webb and his fat contract and he’s 0-5 with a 5.95 ERA over 15 starts.  What a crash.

Man on the Spot Update:

Verlander had a rough start and was posting a 5.00 ERA when the Dawgs became determined to trade him.  He’s now on Scotland, which can’t but help his ERA numbers, but where he’s 0-1.  Matsui was the main guy in the deal.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Hawaii has some good hitting weather! Jerod Gaston rocked, while Castillo, Wilson and Graham also excelled. Phillip Shirek might be better than his numbers showed.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 1st in North / Tom: 2nd in North

Current Standing:  40-50 (3rd in North, 6.5 game out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .263 / 393

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.44 / 405

Current Team Salary:  $70,650,000 

All-Star Selections:  C Ramon Hernandez, SS Alex Cintron


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Something is certainly amiss in Brooklyn, as the Crunch have been arguably the league's biggest disappointment so far. The offense has been pretty decent, the starting pitching not terrible, and yet the team just doesn't. So what gives? Too many decisions in the pen? Lack of that big slugger? GM Richard Gin has been completely silent on an active trade market, and is in jeopardy of being left behind.  Questions need to be answered soon, or you are looking at a 3rd (or potentially Last) place team. 

Offense:

We've seen this before. A bunch of guys hitting .270, 14, 45 at the break. David Ortiz is doing alright, and will probably match his 95 RBI from a year ago, and Milton Bradley and Eric Chavez have played well when not injured. Ichiro has flashy batting numbers but hasn't scored as many runs as you'd like to see. The team misses Jose Vidro, and despite an All Star selection with Cintron, lack an impact SS as well. Both catchers have spent considerable time on the DL, and FA addition Magglio Ordonez has been outright terrible. Where is Wily Mo Pena? He had 80 RBI last year but can't get off the bench in 2010. And any buyer's remorse after trading Vladdy back to Baltimore?

Pitching:

Must be a hot summer in Brooklyn, because the normally weather-aided pitching numbers just aren't happening this year. The ball is staying in the yard, which is good, and Joe Nathan and Jeff Weaver are having really good years ERA-wise. Rookie Ryan Anderson is finally getting his shot, and thus far has been pretty good. The bullpen has been the problem this year, recording far too many decisions (24 and counting). The ERA's haven't been bad, with Weber, Vizcaino and Julio doing fine jobs, but overall too many games are being decided late. 

Biggest Surprise:

Ryan Anderson. We joked about his lifetime of starts for the Bedford organization, but he has really helped out a team that would be a lot worse without his contributions.

Biggest Disappointment:

I'll go with William Bray. He was once mentioned in the same breath as Sowers, Verlander and Niemann, but now he's close to being unemployed.

Man on the Spot Update:

Jeff Weaver has been arguably the best pitcher on the staff all season long. A great fit in Bedford. Now the team just needs 3 or 4 more guys like him.
Tom's Take

Overview:

I guess at this point I’m wondering if, 6.5 back and all, Bedford’s run is over and this team ought to throw in the towel and join the ranks of the rebuilding?  There’s a lot of baseball yet to be played, but nobody on this team really seems to give a rip.  David Ortiz is doing pretty well and Ichiro is plugging along, but Chavez is having a down year.  Ramon Hernandez’s power is out.  Marcus Giles sucks. Wily Mo Pena hasn’t shown up.  Joe Nathan pitches well but only has 4 wins.  On the bright side, Ryan Anderson could be in the rotation for years to come.  Oreste Upchurch has potential.  Jeff Weaver fits in.  Time to clean house?  Or do they hope the kids in Halifax finally realize they are too young to win?  If this team wants to bail, they’d probably better do it soon, the good prospects are going fast.

Offense:

A Crunch team that had, for a time, seemed to figure out how to make the best of their stadium and players has fallen back into the back of the pack in runs, HR and average.  If your outfield is Bradley, Ordonez and Pena, you’re hurting as all three have phoned it in this year.  The swap of Vidro for Marcus Giles at 2B is looking like a major gaffe by GM Richard Gin and even Eric Chavez is having a pretty pedestrian season, hitting under .300 with no great HR numbers, though he does continue to crank out doubles.  David Ortiz, on pace for 40 HR, is the only guy stepping it up this year.

Pitching:

The pitching has been unusually bad in Bedford, too.  Granted, as predicted, Jeff Weaver is fitting in well here, going 7-4 with a sub 4.00 ERA and Joe Nathan is still happy as a clam pitching in the NEFAC, but Oliver Perez is pretty bad, despite a winning record and William Bray and Andrew Brown are pretty much ready for AAA duty as they don’t seem to have major league arms on them.  The pen has been down, too, with bad years from Chad Bradford and Jose Valverde.  Luis Vizcaino is still plugging along and ageless wonder Ben Weber is eating up innings in middle relief, but given the ERAs all around, it’s sub par for Bedford.

Biggest Surprise:

Ryan Anderson stayed bottled up in the minors for an eternity and now could be the Rookie Pitcher of the Year, with most of the touted class of rookie arms having major flameouts.

Biggest Disappointment:

There are some pitching choices, but I’ll go with Wily Mo Pena, who went from a 30/30 blend of speed and power to a .224 hitting scrub with 3 SB so far this year.

Man on the Spot Update:

So far as I can tell, Bedford finally just outright gave up on Odalis Perez and London claimed him off waivers.  Oddly, Perez seems to have thrived in London—for now.

Minor League Wrap Up:

All that power and no discipline. Bad year for pitching.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: Last in North / Tom: 3rd in North

Current Standing:  38-51 (Last in North, 8 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .249 / 351

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.73 / 432

Current Team Salary:  $78,500,000

All-Star Selections:  LHP Barry Zito, 3B Hank Blalock


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Philly is a classic case of good moves gone wrong. We derided management in years past for not getting the big bat. Well they got Blalock, who made the All Star team and is tied for 1st in the league in HR. Then we said they needed a true leadoff hitter. They signed Carl Crawford, who has been the biggest bust this side of Brandon Webb. You've got pitchers winning with bad ERA's and losing with good ones. But the one thing that has been consistently bad this year for the Phynatics is an overall lack of getting on base. Look at the difference in OBP's between Philly and, say, Atlanta, and everything becomes painfully clear.

Offense:

Time to fire the hitting coach? I think so. The team is last in team hitting and barely above Baltimore for team OBP (at a pitiful .295). Aubrey Huff is the only starter hitting over .300, while guys like Furcal and Crawford have been criminally awful. Blalock is tied with Delmon Young for most HR, but has 29 fewer RBI. Scott Rolen and Preston Wilson can one day tell their grandkids that they were All Stars, but that seems like a very long time ago. Need we say more on the subject?

Pitching:

Poor Brad Penny. 4-11 with a 3.71 ERA. He can't buy a break (or a run). More mediocrity from Zito and Wood (yawn), while Millwood and Garcia have been predictably shitty. Late inning bullpen has been fantastic (Mays, Inferno, Lidge) while middle relief has been fugly (Lyon, Rodney, Affeldt). It may finally be time to blow this staff up and start over. Mr. B has a tendency to continually resign guys like Wood every time they are up for contract, and it doesn't get the team anywhere. Maybe a change of scenery is needed for everyone.

Biggest Surprise:

Joe Mays, who has been quite bad as a starter, has a 2.08 ERA in nearly 50 IP out of the pen. Of course that means he is now back in the rotation. Which makes the pen worse. I have a headache now.

Biggest Disappointment:

Crawford. I mean there is bad, an then there is .197/.269/.301 . Good God! He might actually beat Darnell McDonald's 2005 marks for all-time worst full time player in league history.

Man on the Spot Update:

I picked Brad Penny, who, with his numbers, would have 10 wins on IRE or PAR easily. But this isn't IRE or PAR. It's Philly, where nothing makes sense.
Tom's Take

Overview
:

Is there such a thing as “team chemistry” in SLB?  I’m beginning to think there is.  And this year, Philly ain’t got it.  Rather, in a year that .500 ball could get you in the race in the North, everybody on Philly seems to be playing worse than their career numbers would predict.  Otherwise productive players like Furcal, Preston Wilson, Scott Rolen, Carl Crawford and Brad Lidge have been—for no real reason—shitty.  You can’t blame management on this one.  GM Brian B is trying to trade his way out of this mess, but I don’t know what else you can do.  On the bright side, the AAA Senators tore it up this year and Shalk, Terrero and Rohrbaugh all look like sure things.  What the hell, why not just call them up?  If you want to see a beating, look at what Washington did to Fort Wayne in the AAA playoffs.  You could do worse than just calling up that whole bunch and trying to beat Halifax at their own game rookie v. rookie.

Offense:

Real bad.  The only team in SLB hitting under .250 and the fewest runs in the league.  Table setters Crawford and Furcal are hovering around the Mendoza line, particularly galling in the case of Crawford who Philly shelled out $5mil this season to sign up.  Preston Wilson is hitting only .224.  The only bright spots are Hank Blalock, who is tied for the league lead in HR, though without a great Avg. and Daniel Garcia who looks like a promising young 2B.  Hard to imagine Jack Schalk wouldn’t be a better option here than somebody.

Pitching:

A little better than the hitting—but not much.  Wood, Zito and Penny would be, to be honest, solid starters on a team that could score runs.  Wood has a 4.11 ERA, which isn’t great, but he’s still the ace.  Penny deserves better than 11 losses with his 3.71 ERA.  Then you get to Garcia and Millwood, both of whom deserve outright releases into the FA pool and Jeremy Affelt and Brandon Lyon, who both have had plenty of chances to prove they aren’t good.  Maybe it’s time to give long suffering Corey Wade and his live arm a crack at the majors.  Or maybe one of the great names in SLB—Sandy Crawl.  At this point, what’s to lose?

Biggest Surprise:

How about Brad Penny with a respectable 3.71 ERA?  Too bad you still lead the league in losses with 11.  Yeah, it’s been that kind of year.

Biggest Disappointment:

You gotta lotta options here.  I’m going to go with Preston Wilson, who was once one of the most sought after guys in the league.  Now hitting .224, the Phynatics can’t seem to unload the guy.

Man on the Spot Update:

Huff is leading the starters with a .306 BA.  Not the .320 I was calling for, but certainly not reason to place blame at his feet.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Won the title with big years from Terrero, Blong and Schalk. Is Robert Rohrbaugh the next great lefty closer in this league? 


South Division

Darin's Take: Not a joke anymore! Savannah and Atlanta are making Georgia proud, while the pre-Posada Diablos have kept pace. Tennessee is extremely streaky, but aren't out of it by a long shot. Then there is Baltimore. Let's save our punches for the team write up, shall we?

Tom's Take: Go figure.  The best place to be a baseball fan in 2010 is Georgia.  Atlanta’s rebuilding plan—OK, “building” plan since they’ve been on it since the league began—is finally paying dividends and the Savannah Sabers are arguably the best team in SLB over the first half of the season.  Havana could still be a factor, despite rebuilding and Tennessee should never be counted out.  Baltimore has had setback after setback and has to find a basic core to build around for the future.  But if the Georgia teams can do it, so can the Panthers.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 2nd in South / Tom: 3rd in South

Current Standing:  50-38 (1st in South)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .271 / 395

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.29 / 400

Current Team Salary:  $75,480,000

All-Star Selections:  RHP Roy Halladay, RHP Roy Oswalt, RHP Eric Gagne, C Michael Barrett, 1B Hee-Seop Choi, LF Adam Dunn, CF Carlos Beltran


 


Darin's Take

Overview:

Everything is clicking in Georgia's Second City, and GM Richard Vohs' Sabers are looking good in the South. It's no run away, but once Savannah ascended to first place, they have been unwilling to let go. Even with a few lackluster performances from some key hitters, the team has played very well, and has stayed healthy to boot. A league leading 7 All Stars show this team is no longer your perennial .500 club. But does this feel like a playoff team? If pitching is the key to success, then yes, but I'm somehow still not convinced. 

Offense:

Actually, not very good. Eerily similar to teams like Philly, but for some reason, it's good enough here. Adam Dunn has been the star, sticking in the top 10 in the league in HR and RBI. The rest is pretty substandard, making the selections of Choi, Barrett and Beltran to the All Star game pretty questionable. A lot of players have gotten a lot of at bats while manager Lou Brown has tried to find a workable lineup. Lance Berkman has been either injured or bad, and though Beltran has produced more than any other point in his career, he hasn't been that great either. In come some young hitters like Betemit and Linden, and suddenly you have an '05 Atlanta Braves situation brewing. The question of course is can a team with such a lame duck lineup actually compete if/when it reaches the post season? 

Pitching:

If the Sabers get to the playoffs, it's going to be because of the pitching. After really shaky starts, Roy Oswalt and Roy Halladay have really stepped to the forefront, both making the All Star team. Oswalt is CY worthy, and his success takes the pressure off of last year's RPOY Phillip Humber, who is having a fine year despite just 8 decisions in 18 starts. Chris Carpenter has been a very nice surprise, especially after Chacon got hurt and Livan Hernandez struggled. Mark Buehrle should be replaced like yesterday, as there is no room for a 6.34 ERA on a championship staff. With Chad Cordero's struggles, the addition of Eric Gagne to close has been hugely important in the team's success.

Biggest Surprise:

Linden and Betemit have both stepped in and shown great run producing potential. Both have SLG over .600!

Biggest Disappointment:

Tough to choose, but I'll go with Choi. A real down year for a guy who has won Division MVP awards in the past.

Man on the Spot Update:

Dunn has proven that last year was not a fluke. And it's a good thing, with Choi and Berkman's cool starts.

Tom's Take

Overview:

I just got this team flat wrong in every way.  I thought they were a third place team at best and probably couldn’t get run production outside of Choi and Berkman.  The Sabers have been pitching their way to victory all year behind Oswalt, Humber, Halladay and Carpenter.  Now with Gagne on board to close, it’s really just a question of whether then can hold off the other Georgia team—Atlanta—and get in the post season.  Who the hell thought we’d be saying that?  Hurray for the Free Agency system!

Offense:

Under 400 runs for the season, they aren’t among the league’s best, but they’ve been able to score when it counts in close games, where they are 18-12.  Adam Dunn is having an all world year with 24 yard jobs and a .607 SLG.  Carlos Beltran is having a good year—for Beltran and Wilson Betemit has been great when he’s gotten AB.  Hee Seop Choi and Lance Berkman are both having off years—so far—which might actually be good news as they could carry the team in the second half of the season if they get hot.  Jason Kendall and Mike Young continue to disappoint.

Pitching:

Roy Oswalt is the man in Savannah where his 10-6 2.71 season puts him in contention for the Cy Young and justifies his $10mil salary.  Philip Humber is a close second, establishing himself as one of the best young pitchers in SLB over the last couple of seasons.  Roy Halladay has a 7.5 record and a respectable sub 4.00 ERA.  The Mark Buerhle magic is gone as he’s carrying a miserable 6.34 ERA around though Chris Carpenter’s year is making up for that a bit—though we’ve seen Carpenter put up decent short stretches only to go bad in a hurry.  Adding Gagne helps a bullpen that has suffered rough years from Koch and Cordero.  Is this a bullpen that can get it done if they need them in the fall?

Biggest Surprise:

Wilson Betemit hasn’t been a starter all year long, but he’s been scorching hot when he’s been in there, putting up a .651 SLG for a guy usually known for speed.  Let Wilson play!

Biggest Disappointment:

Lance Berkman, one of the most consistent producers in the league is having a horrible year hitting .245 with only a .389 SLG.  What do you wanna bet that doesn’t last all year, though?

Man on the Spot Update:

Chacon pitched one game, won it and blew his arm out in the process (I guess several years outside of organized ball didn’t do wonders for his conditioning). His comeback year ended after 6 innings.  Ain’t that a bitch?  Lifetime Movie of the Week already in production.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Valderrama and Smith show promise. Will Doolittle always, uh, do little? (sorry) Mike Maroth was 11-2. That's helpful... 

 





Predicted Finish:  Darin: 3rd in South / Tom: 2nd in South

Current Standing:  47-41 (T-2nd in South, 3 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .285 / 469

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.62 / 421

Current Team Salary:  $58,650,000

All-Star Selections:  RHP Byung-Hyun Kim, RHP Carlos Zambrano, C Troy Paris, RF Dennis Dennis Jr., RF Will Hunting


 


Darin's Take

Overview:

It has taken a long time, but finally GM Jim Masters has a team that is molded in his image of OBP, defense and quality pitching. The team is not all the way there yet, what with David "Homer" Bailey still waiting in the wings, but for the first time, the Flyers are true contenders and look to be for many seasons to come. That said, they probably won't win this year, as it's just not in the "plans". God forbid Bailey and Lemming are in the same free agency cycle 6 seasons down the road. But our differences with Jim's managerial style are well documented, so on with the show.

Offense:

Best outfield in baseball? Probably. A late inning broken finger in the last game before the break prevented an All-Flyer outfield in the All Star Game, and who could argue? High averages, OBP and SLG, great speed AND power. Not bad when Will Hunting (.317, 16, 55) is your worst outfielder. Darren Lemming is the front runner for ROY, and will probably be in the thick of the MVP race if he gets healthy soon. D2J will also get votes, what with his 43 doubles AT THE BREAK! Troy Paris has been the power hitting catcher we all expected him to be, and Jimmy Rollins has provided that nice spark at the top. Heck, even Brad Fullmer was kicking butt before he got hurt. The only glaring hole so far is Rickie Weeks. Why not give Thurston some more AB's?

Pitching:

Pretty good starting pitching which could potentially be great by season's end. Zambrano and Kim were both All Stars, while Hernandez and Cotts have held down the fort admirably. Dontrelle Willis is gone, leaving a hole in the rotation that looks to be filled by Tosekawa Mahara. Will he live up to his Blue chip status, or is he going to be a Kawabata redux? Johan Santana was also acquired, though he's injured. If he gets healthy by September, however, he could be a real big addition for the stretch. There are problems in the pen that need to be addressed, but that sounds like management has made that a priority for next year. 

Biggest Surprise:

Kim is good again? When did that happen?

Biggest Disappointment:

Wade Townsand was great last year. Wha' Happa'?

Man on the Spot Update:

Neal Cotts hasn't been as good as last year, but he's been good enough.

Tom's Take

Overview:

I’m still in the “I’ll believe it when I see it” camp, but it almost looks like GM Jim Masters really wants to win this year.  Not only hasn’t the fire sale started yet, but the Flyers have actually made some trades to ADD talent—like picking up Japanese rookie Tosekawa Mahara and nabbing Wickman and Santana off Havana.  With Kim, Santana and Carlos Zambrano, the Flyers have an “anything is possible” situation.  They probably need a better bullpen, but they’ve just made trades to try and fix that.  It just goes to show, a half decade of the top picks in the ammy draft will pay off, so Londoners and Baltimoreans take heart.

Offense:

Given the “juiced ball” factor in Paris, the fact the Flyers are right with them in runs and HR, and lead them in 2Bs makes me give the nod to Atlanta as the best offense in SLB over the 1st half of this season.  The Flyers have the best OF in the league with Will Hunting, hitting .317, Dennis Dennis hitting .331 with 21 HR and the ROY favorite Darren Lemming hitting .321 with a HR every 12.32 AB.  Lemming follows in Chest Rockwell’s footsteps likely to get some votes for MVP as well as ROY.  Troy Paris is in full bloom, hitting .315 with 18 HR.  The only weak spot is at 2B where Rickie Weeks has been an easy out.

Pitching:

Zambrano and Kim have held the fort down while Atlanta waits for their trade to get Johan Santana to pay off.  Neil Cotts and Runelvys Hernandez have done well enough as 4-5 starters going 11-8 combined.  The bullpen started out the season as the likely obstacle to going to the postseason, but trades to add Bob Wickman and Tosekawa Mahara have helped there.  Tom Martin and Ed Jackson have been pretty good as middle relievers.  Wickman is asked to close, so we’ll see how that works out.

Biggest Surprise:

Success breeds success in this league, but how about Jerry Hairson, Jr. hitting .312 with 15 dingers for a sign things are finally going well in Atlanta?

Biggest Disappointment:

The bullpen, led by Wade Townsand whose 10 HR in 38 innings just about gets you ready to give up on him for good.

Man on the Spot Update:

If Kim can get his ERA down to around 4.00, he could win 15 games.”  Pretty good prediction.  Wins are on target with 8 so far and his ERA is 3.32.  Finally, huh?

Minor League Wrap Up:

Gregory Burns and Jeffrey Clement are yet two more hitters you can add to the roster of Charleston success stories. Bailey has done all you could ask.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 1st in South / Tom: 1st in South

Current Standing:  47-41 (T-2nd in South, 3 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .262 / 373

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  3.82 / 352

Current Team Salary:  $61,250,000

All-Star Selections:  RHP LaTroy Hawkins, RHP Danny Haren, 1B Derrek Lee, SS Nomar Garciaparra, RF Marlon Byrd, RF Bobby Abreu


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

So, you wanna buy a used ballplayer? Political unrest in Cuba has changed the face of Havana baseball. New Manager/General Manager/El Presidente Jorge Posada has mandated a cheaper, youth oriented ballclub devoid of big egos and bigger paychecks. This type of midcourse diversion has never been seen in SLB, so how will it pan out? Some big names have already been moved, and the stable of young pitchers and hitters has a good start. Will more deals be made? Almost certainly yes. The fun part will be to see if the team totally disintegrates and falls from the standings, or pulls a Sailor act of its own and stays in contention despite cutting salary left and right. 

Offense:

In all seriousness, a big reason Keesing wanted to blow the team up was that despite it's big contracts and All Star credentials, this offense just wasn't getting it done. Lee, Abreu, Nomar, Lane....all decent years, but all well below their career norms. Until the last few weeks, the Diablos were dead last in the league in runs scored. That's sure to keep up now that Hessman is at 1st, Bush at SS and Chapman at 3rd. There have been a few surprises, like scrap heap pickup Marlon Byrd, who made the All Star team when all he was asked to do was fill in for Erstad while he healed up from last year's broken neck. Expect a completely different look here next year, as Spring Break will more or less be "open auditions" for starting jobs in Cuba.

Pitching:

The arms are what kept Havana in the race. They lead the league in ERA much of the first half, with Haren, Santana and Lohse leading the way. Santana's injury was pretty devastating, but he should be great for Atlanta next year. Bobby Brownlie just can't regain that magic from a few years back. The new look rotation now features Larry Brush, Les Beltre and Zach Greinke, and could see a few more new faces here soon. Really could have an "all name team" rotation in a few years with Ketchup, Mexico, Brush and Bush. All of these trades have given Havana a spoil of young pitching prospects, something they've never enjoyed in what is perennially a barren farm system. I'm sure there will be some great numbers put up by them next year, wherever the hell the AAA team will be.

Biggest Surprise:

Besides the firesale? It's gotta be Byrd. He could be this year's Jody Gerut. Will he be hotly sought after in the auction?

Biggest Disappointment:

Brownlie. He came a vote away from winning the Cy Young in 2008. Now he's mediocre at best. Will he anchor the staff next year, or will all the new faces pass him by? 

Man on the Spot Update:

Bobby Abreu has been decent but again hasn't shown his MVP abilities. You'd never wish Baltimore on him though. Poor, poor Bobby.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

The people of Cuba have tired of their government and GM Darin Keesing has tired of his team.  Jorge Posada, who faded into the shadows one day after Atlantic City lost an uneventful road trip series to Havana, has returned to shake up the island and its baseball.  So far, the Diablos have shed RHP Francisco Cordero, RHP Danny Haren, RHP Kyle Lohse, 1B Derrek Lee, LHP Johan Santana, RHP Bob Wickman, RHP LaTroy Hawkins, 3B Mike Lowell, CF Darin Erstad, RF Jason Lane, LHP Dontrelle Willis, RF Bobby Abreu, and RHP Rich Harden.  And they might not be done yet.  They obviously aren’t shooting for a win this year, and maybe not next year.  Will they deliberately tank now in an attempt to secure a good draft slot?  The arrival of Jumbo Ketchup says yes.  Should be a fun rest of the season.

Offense:

What’s left of it isn’t particularly exciting.  Esteban German has established himself as one of the league’s top speedsters and Matt Bush has been more productive than his AAA career might have led one to expect.  With the arrivals of Ike Graham, Peter Bourjos and (ironically) Bernie Castro, this looks to be a team that will be unbelievably fast.  I’m not so sure that works in the heat of Cuba, but maybe they’ll go to a new, larger stadium or a dome.  I don’t know what else you expect me to say when neither you, nor I, nor maybe even manage Jose Canseco are sure who is on the lineup card right now.

Pitching:

So far as I can tell, it’s now Greinke, Beltre, Brownlie, Ketchup and Brush.  How about that, huh?  Well, Beltre and Brush put up sub 4.00 ERAs in Scotland, for what that’s worth.  If they can hold that, they’d be pretty decent 4 and 5 starters for a rebuilding franchise.  Brownlie has been a mystery since looking like the guy the Diablos would be building the rotation around for the future.  If he gets his stuff back, he’s part of the new look team, for sure.  Greinke is 2-1 this year with a 4.82 ERA.  Another 5th starter.  Ketchup was probably brought in to lose, but he’s actually 1-0 in 2 starts.  Maybe his junk is too slow for major league hitters to get a bead on.  The bullpen is soon to lose Eischen, Stewart and Osuna leaving God knows who to fill those jobs. 

Biggest Surprise:

Marlon Byrd, who I described as a “weak” hitter in the Heaters is, after the fire sale, probably this team’s best player, hitting .312.  Who the hell saw that coming?

Biggest Disappointment:

Brock Landers looked very promising for several seasons in the minors and as a set up man.  However, it appears he doesn’t have the mental toughness to be a closer and has had his ERA balloon to 5.91 behind 8 gopher balls in 21 innings now that he’s been made the go-to guy.  Sad.  Maybe the Diablos will finally trade him to Ellas so he can be re-united with Chest Rockwell.

Man on the Spot Update:

Brownlie has been even worse.  From a CY runner up to a 3.99 ERA to a 5.35 so far this year.  One year wonder?

Minor League Wrap Up:

Tons of power numbers, but not from rookies. Look for Quinlan, Chapman and Davis to be up soon. Aside from Ketchup, the pitching was atrocious.




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 4th in South / Tom: Last in South

Current Standing:  42-46 (4th in South, 8 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .258 / 418

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.89 / 446

Current Team Salary:  $75,850,000

All-Star Selections:  RHP Jake Peavy, 1B Paul Konerko, 3B Miguel Cabrera


 


Darin's Take

Overview:

I thought I would eat crow for picking the Thunder 4th, but their lack of pitching and some key injuries have put them right there. They have shown the ability to streak (in both directions), but have not quite been able to pass up Havana and Atlanta yet. A healthy A-Rod and a pitcher or two could do wonders here, and believe me when I say that trades are being discussed. The big key to a successful second half could be their record head to head with the rest of the South. Right now they are 13-19, which isn't great. Too many losses to Baltimore or Havana would be a deal breaker.

Offense:

We usually count on A-Rod, Cabrera and Hamilton to be the heavy hitters, but with A-Rod out, who would step it up? Paul Konerko? Yes, Paul Konerko. I had this great quote in the HSH: "The big offensive loss was Pujols, and Paul Konerko isn't going to replace his numbers." O RLY? Konerko has outperformed Pujols in just about every category, and has some MVP creds with his 70 RBI. Cabrera is awesome, and Hamilton has been fantastic despite a mysterious low RBI count. GM Ben Royer neds to get Jeremy Reed healthy and needs to acquire a 2B to get this thing close.

Pitching:

How did so many miss out on Jake Peavy all this time? Prior to a recent skid, he was 10-2 and leading the league in wins. He still earned All Star honors as the best (by far) starter on the team. Derek Thompson is doing his usual "making something out of nothing routine", but not much else is shaking. "...we'll see if Guidry can make a winner out of Westbrook." No sir, not this year. Urbina and Sullivan have been incredible out of the pen, but Sullivan (along with Redding) have long term injury problems. Middle relief is a disaster. The team was very interested in Rich Harden, but a deal couldn't be finalized before Halifax swept him up. Too bad, but would one arm have been enough? Probably not.

Biggest Surprise:

Konerko. Comeback Player? Derek Jeter may have something to say about that, but come on, how much worse would this team be right now if Paulie was hitting at his career numbers? Last place?

Biggest Disappointment:

Jason Marquis has not helped. And now he's gone. He won't be missed.

Man on the Spot Update:

Peavy's agent continues to dream of the wheelbarrows of cash his client will be getting this off season.

Tom's Take

Overview:

Tennessee’s recent 5 game slide probably took them out of contention.  Granted, this is a streaky team and I shouldn’t be writing their obituary just yet, but given the moves Savannah and Atlanta are making, it’s getting less likely that the Thunder can make up an 8 game deficit.  Tennessee, as always, can still hit but they now have an ace—Peavy—a closer—Urbina—and the rest of the staff is AAA quality.  They need some major help in the pitching department.  So what to do?  Should they trade for a few arms now, maybe looking to ship off A-Rod, who is having a down year, or should the Thunder pack it in, too, and see if they can land a couple of guys for the future?  I’d go with the latter, myself, as I think this season is in the can for these guys.

Offense:

Still strong despite weak seasons from A-Rod, who’s hitting just .266 with 8 HR in an injury plagued year, and Jeremy Reed, who is hitting .268.  Scott Podsednik, while not really on base as much as you’d like, is still tied for the league lead in runs with 78, thanks to 49 steals.  Miguel Cabrera is having another monster year, hitting .329 with 20 HR.  Josh Hamilton continues to be among the top CF and Konerko, mentioned below, is providing unexpected power.  Still struggling to get production out of 2B, where Renteria is playing and not hitting and C, where Rob Bowen and Joe Mauer have gotten work.

Pitching:

You have to marvel that Tennessee managed to recover Jake Peavy for $200,000 which has been one of the best signings in the history of SLB.  This year he’s 10-5 with a  3.03 ERA.  This is his FA year, though, and you can bet he won’t be making 200K in 2011.  The rest of the staff pretty much blows.  Thompson is 8-4 with a 4.01 ERA, so I guess he’s solid, but then you’ve got Horacio Ramirez and Jake Westbrook who both have ERAs above 5.50 and now Carlos Hernandez and Rick Ankiel scraped up off the FA pile.  Yikes.  And the bullpen ain’t much better.  The pen has been shaken up with Strickland coming in and you have to say Urbina has been nails as the closer, but Williamson, Bush (now gone) and Radke were pretty bad.  We’ll see how the pen shakes out with the midseason moves and maybe some waiver wire pick ups.

Biggest Surprise:

Paul Konerko is having the best year of his SLB career, in the top 5 in HR and RBI.

Biggest Disappointment:

Jason Marquis’s 5-10 5.85 season hardly justifies his $7million contract in the off season. 

Man on the Spot Update:

There are probably a dozen guys at AAA I’d take over Jeremy Reed at this point.  He’s certainly not doing much to help Tennessee win.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Pretty great pitching from Asher and DePaula. Can that be believed? Pretty light hitting all around (unless you count Borchard). 

 





Predicted Finish:  Darin: Last in South / Tom: 4th in South

Current Standing:  35-53 (Last in South, 15 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .252 / 358

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.74 / 429

Current Team Salary:  $59,350,000 

All-Star Selections:  SS Jack Criscola


 


Darin's Take

Overview:

Allow me to post some quotes from my HSH write-up: "What happens when you take a 100 loss team and throw some All Stars at it? In my opinion, you have a 90 loss team." Or: "[T]here is no good cheap talent in the system anymore, and if the big ticket guys fail, it's going to be a debacle for the Panthers." Finally: "[A]t this point, these guys are just a band aid on a gushing wound, and while their presence will ease the hemorrhaging, there is still plenty of work to be done." So yeah, I'm basically saying that I called this spot on.

Offense:

You have two very sad All Star caliber players with very sad statistics. Guerrero and Pujols are doing their damndest to play hard and make things happen, but let's be honest: you can't drive in runs when no one is on base. Sure, rookie Jack Criscola has been a nice surprise, but once David Wright went down, this team was doomed. Castillo, Valent, Lieberthal, Brazell...all bad bad bad. They finally got Corey Patterson to hit! That's worth something, right?

Pitching:

You certainly can't blame the starting pitching here. Tim Hudson was horrible (and injured) for most of the year, but his 4.66 is the worst ERA in the rotation. How many others wish they could say the same? Pavano, Dotel, and the surprising Dewon Brazelton are all under 4.00, while Tadeshi Kawabata has held his own. The bullpen, however, couldn't get Rookie League hitters out. I challenge someone to find worse numbers that these guys have put up. It's not even worth mentioning their names. Is it any surprise that manager Tony Perez would rather send CF Eric Valent out there than one of these losers?

Biggest Surprise:

Brazelton. 7-3, 3.76 is pretty spiffy from a guy who has bounced around in this league. Not exactly the guy you want to count on to repeat those numbers every year though. 

Biggest Disappointment:

Hudson. He's been better lately, but has not been the staff ace by a long stretch. A hot second half could push the Panthers ahead of the fading Thunder, however. Can I name him "Man on the Spot" for the rest of the year?

Man on the Spot Update:

Ben Sheets blew goats for the Panthers and so they traded him to Ellas, where he is recovering comfortably.

Tom's Take

Overview:

When the highlight of your season is the All-Star appearance of Jack Criscola, you can stick a fork in your big plans.  GM Jose Gutierrez worked the trade wires and forked over major cash to add talent to this team before the season got going, but it didn’t pan out.  They traded prospects to pick up vets, then traded vets to pick up prospects and now made another trade to deal those prospects to Havana for Willis and Abreu.  Huh?  What this team does have an abundance of is speed.  So maybe they ought to build a bigger stadium (the Coors model is out there) and try to go with a small ball strategy in the future.  At least some sort of clear direction would be nice.

Offense:

With the exception of Criscola and flashes of brilliance from Corey Patterson, not much has worked out as might have been hoped.  Vladimir Guerrero is having a decent year, but is batting just under .300 and on pace to hit barely 30 HR.  Not really All Star stats and, in fact, he isn’t going to the All Star game.  Same could be said for Albert Pujols.  Eric Valent has been a bust and Craig Brazell, while he does seem to have legit 30 HR power, hardly is capable of carrying the team.  David Wright also has had a bump in his promising road to being an every day starter.  They’ve tacked on Bobby Abreu, who can be the best player in the league when he’s on, but I’m not so sure that’s what the Panthers needed most right now.  They need some stars in their early 20s not their mid 30s.

Pitching:

Not the worst in the league this year, but still not very good.  Their top 3 starters are fine.  Pavano has a losing record, but a 3.81 ERA is acceptable.  Dewon Brazelton is the jewel of the staff, 7-3 with a 3.76 ERA for only $200,000.  Dotel has worked out surprisingly well as a starter and is impossible to take deep.  Then, all hell breaks loose.  Tim Hudson has a 4.66 ERA and, likely, will be traded at some point.  Daniel Cabrera was the 5th starter until his 1-7 7.32 numbers make the Panthers trade for Tadeshi Kawabata.  The bullpen is unbelievably bad.  Angel Guzman has the best ERA at 4.50.  The worst is Mark Hendrickson who has blown 6 games and has a 9.19 ERA in 32 IP. 

Biggest Surprise:

I may as well say Jack Criscola.  Yeah, he’s cooled off in a big way, but he did lead SLB in hitting for a short stretch.  I’d still rather have Castro at SS, though.  Can’t coach speed.

Biggest Disappointment:

You could go with Cabrera or Hendrickson, who have both been awful, but I’ll say Pujols.  Yeah, he leads the team in HR and RBI, but still, for $9million, you expect more that .262 outta the guy.

Man on the Spot Update:

Dotel is 10/17 in QS with a sparkling 3.13 ERA and only 4 HR given up in 98 innings.  Chalk up another successful reliever to starter conversion.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Is it worth taking a chance on Willie Montgomery yet, or is he not ready for prime time? Craig Johnson shows promise. 


Euro Division

Darin's Take: While the division is falling out more or less how I predicted, it's certainly a closer race than anyone anticipated. Paris was up by 25 games on some teams at this point last year, but we saw how many players they lost this past winter, and while they are still in first place, they have certainly slowed down. Scotland was cruising for awhile but has faltered lately; will their big trade with the Diablos put them back on top? Can Ireland and Ellas stay healthy enough to stay in the race?

Tom's Take: This is just a brutal division.  The top 4 teams would all be in first place in the North and even London is playing respectable .400 ball this year.  Paris continues to hit their way to the top, but their pitching has become a real eyesore.  Ellas has been struggling with injuries and bullpen losses, but they’ve traded for some solutions there, priming them for their usual second half surge.  Ireland has the best pitching in the league, ERA wise, but they are still an uneven team with holes on offense and lousy 4-5 starters.  Scotland has been a real shock hanging with the top 3 teams and now they’ve added Haren, Lohse and Lee to make things very interesting.  Anybody’s division to win at this point and a good chance the World Series to follow.  

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 1st in Euro / Tom: 2nd in Euro

Current Standing:  51-36 (1st in Euro)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .292 / 473

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.67 / 435

Current Team Salary:  $87,800,000

All-Star Selections:  LHP Billy Wagner, 3B Dallas McPherson, LF Geoff Jenkins


 


Darin's Take

Overview:

The Pimps continue to do what they always do, which is hit the ball hard, score a lot of runs, and make do with the mediocre pitching. But the team isn't putting up football scores anymore, and as such, aren't running away and hiding like usual. The team has scored over 80 fewer runs this year despite the great performances of new guys like Jenkins and Helton. But hey, they still own the league's best record, and until someone knocks them off the top, they are still King's of the Hill.

Offense:

Tony Fernandez is clearly the best hitting coach of all time. Anyone, and I mean ANYONE can be added to this team and hit .300. Geoff Jenkins and Todd Helton have certainly resurrected their careers here, with Jenkins and All Star (and Helton certainly considered if not for his injury). Dallas McPherson is your leading RBI guy and should get MVP votes, especially if he keeps up a near .350 batting average. The only guy not hitting well is Orlando Cabrera, but who cares, right? Jody Gerut has "slowed" to a meager .293, 17, 45 in the first half (boo hoo). 

Pitching:

Danny Graves was among several All Star snubs. The starting pitching around him is pretty bad too, which makes his 8-2, 3.19 first half stand out even more. Waechter is easily the only pitcher in the league with 8 wins and a 6.02 ERA; call him "Mr. Run Support". Jerome Williams and Kelvim Escobar certainly aren't earning their big paychecks, though neither are specifically costing you any games. Jose Jiminez and Billy Wagner have been fantastic in the pen, while Villafuerte, Choate and Riedling have been good if not great. GM Michael Taylor has been very quiet on the trade front recently. Is he in the market for another starter?

Biggest Surprise:

Danny Graves. Wasn't he the laughing stock of London a few years back? Now he's the only pitcher who can consistently get guys out. Still, a great bargain for the numbers.

Biggest Disappointment:

Jerome Williams just isn't the Cy Young pitcher he once was. And probably won't be again. This is what an 8 figure salary buys you in the offense-friendly Maginot Line Field.

Man on the Spot Update:

Jody Gerut may not be putting up unreal numbers again, but he is certainly proving not to be a fluke.

Tom's Take

Overview:

The old formula is still working: speed + power, lots of platoons and hold the other team to 5 runs.  It doesn’t seem to matter who the Pimpernels send to the plate. Floyd/Jenkins, Lee/Helton, Gerut—whatever, they all have career years.  But each season, it seems the pitching erodes a little further.  Now, even Kelvim Escobar and Jerome Williams have ERAs over 4.50 and the bullpen is a Billy Wagner injury away from being a total nightmare.  If it weren’t for Danny Graves having a terrific season, this might be the worst pitching staff in the league.  Can these guys just bash their way to another title?

Offense:

To no one’s great surprise, they’re still the #1 offense by runs scored, though Atlanta, Halifax and Ellas are all very close.  Dallas McPherson is having the best year so far, hitting .341 with 72 RBI.  Shawn Green is finally having the season the Pimps traded for him to have, with a good BA and 20 HR in limited AB.  Gerut started white hot but has come down to just superstar numbers.  Todd Helton is having the best year, by far, of his SLB career.  About the only guys not tearing it up are Orlando Cabrera, who is not replacing Jimmy Rollins like they’d hoped and Johnny Damon who is just inexplicably bad. 

Pitching:

They still manage to win games, but it usually isn't pretty.  Take Doug Waechter who is 8-5 with a 6.02 ERA.  What other team would that happen on?  Zach Day, Jerome Williams and Kelvim Escobar all have ERAs over 4.00, though only Day has a losing record.  Danny Graves is the only starter having a good season with a 3.19 ERA and an 8-2 record.  Billy Wagner soldiers on as the best closer in SLB, but the middle relief is a real adventure getting him the ball.  Villafuerte and Jimenez are 8-1 combined, but Riedling, Washburn, Correia and Eurely have all been worse than bad.  If the Pimpernels need anything, it’s some middle relief, which shouldn’t be any problem to find on the trade market.

Biggest Surprise:

What sort of career could Todd Helton have had if he’d played all these years in Paris?  He just might win the batting title this year if he can beat out his other new Pimped up teammate, Geoff Jenkins.  Who really, can’t benefit from playing on this team?

Biggest Disappointment:

Johnny Damon has a miserable .518 OPS (yeah, that’s OBA and SLG combined) with zero HR this year.  Rumors of a Parisian “social disease” are making the rounds about Damon.

Man on the Spot Update:

Geoff Jenkins has a respectable .501 career SLG. Let’s see what Pimp Juice does to him.  45 HR, .330 BA?  Wouldn’t surprise me at all.—Bingo--except he’s hitting .347!  Un-freakin’-believable.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Recent ammy picks like Italiano, Keadle and McCann really came to play. Tim Raines Jr. finally got his sniff of the major leagues, but the pressure was too much, and back to Quebec he went. So sad.




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 2nd in Euro / Tom: 1st in Euro

Current Standing:  50-37 (2nd in Euro, 1 game out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .264 / 399

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  3.43 / 317

Current Team Salary:  $68,500,000

All-Star Selections:  RHP Mark Prior, LHP Kelly Wunsch, 1B Carlos Delgado, SS Angel Berroa


 


Darin's Take

Overview:

How Ireland is just a game out of first is a mystery to anyone who has followed the team. This team has had SO many injuries (Glaus, Dye, Tejada, Wineapple) but have still managed to keep pace with the Pimpernels. Part of it is far superior pitching, which has stayed much healthier than the offense, and part of it is a lot of depth, especially in the outfield. Either way, Ireland is your Wildcard leader heading into the break, but will need to fight every day to fend off the half dozen teams that are breathing down their necks. 

Offense:

Low run totals can be expected when your key hitters are spending a significant amount of time in the training room instead of on the field. Carlos Delgado has been the anchor, playing every game and leading in run production numbers. Glaus has been good when healthy, but nothing close to his astronomical MVP numbers from years past. The middle infield has been disappointing, especially Scott Hodges. Robby Hammock has been a huge find, hitting .333/.360/.545 filling in for the beleagured Thurman Murman. Any trades coming to upgrade some spots, or is management willing to try to ride this out and hope the injuries are less frequent in the second half?

Pitching:

I pity the team who has to pay Mark Prior next year. 12-4, 1.42 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP....can we just hand him his 4th Cy Young now? It's really unfair. In other news,  this team has gotten along fine without Sabathia, as Lowe, Anderson and Niemann have all stepped up their games to offset the loss. Heck, even Eric Milton is 5-2! The bullpen has been pretty great, especially rookie Erik Eckhenstahler. Who saw him coming? You really only need 3 good starters in the post season, so as long as Prior doesn't blow out his arm, the team might do alright. It's a matter of getting to the postseason that should be of first concern, however.

Biggest Surprise:

Hammock. Backup catcher who hit near .400 for awhile. Now he's hitting .333 and has usurped the backstop role from Tony Montana (not a guy I'd want to piss off.....)

Biggest Disappointment:

I have to say Scott Hodges. This team has a real problem getting on base in front of Glaus/Delgado/Mondesi, and Hodges has fallen from the ranks of "Uber-#2 Hitter."

Man on the Spot Update:

Derek Lowe has enjoyed the cool weather, going 6-6, 3.95 to date.

Tom's Take

Overview:

If pitching wins championships, this will be Ireland’s year.  But, of course, it doesn’t in SLB as Paris has proven on two occasions.  So, betting on the Invaders might be taking the long odds.  Add to that the fact that this team has become pretty much entirely dependent on Mark Prior.  If he goes down, probably so do the Invaders.  His 1.42 ERA also makes the team ERA look better than it really is.  On the other hand, with Tejada now on board and Glaus healthy, it’s easy to overlook this offense that plays half their games in dreary Ireland.  Outside their home park, these guys can belt it out with anybody.  If they can drag Prior to the postseason, anything can happen, but I think they are going to have a tough road to get there.

Offense:

Ireland’s 373 runs scored puts them just above Philly and Baltimore.  An injury to Troy Glaus probably affected the numbers, but he and Delgado are the only ones putting major power numbers up.  Tejada  and Chipper Jones have been added to beef it up, but neither is having a good season.  Franklin Gutierrez and Scott Hodges, who carried the team last year are also way down in production.  Thurman Murman, also, not so hot.  Pretty much the averages are down all across the board.  Does this mean they are just having bad years or are they ready to make up for a slow start?  If they all start getting back to career averages, this could carry the Invaders in the second half.  If not, this team just doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with the rest of the division, I think.

Pitching:

This is where Ireland shines and their team ERA of 3.43 is almost half a run better than anybody else’s.  Mark Prior is probably going to win his 4th Cy Young award meaning he’ll be guaranteed $8million as a free agent—though he’ll probably get double or even triple that.  Brian Anderson has been very good with 10 QS in 11 GS and a 2.65 ERA.  After that it gets a little shaky with Lowe, Niemann and Milton.  The bullpen has been very good despite lacking any big name, big salary stars.  Eric Eckenstahler has a .81 ERA and Ricky Stone is doing fine as the closer with 16 saves. 

Biggest Surprise:

Eric Milton has come back from the dead to go 5-2.  It hasn’t been pretty, but a win is a win and Ireland will take about anybody at the 5th starter spot these days.

Biggest Disappointment:

The hole in Thurman Murman’s swing hasn’t closed any and with his .239 average grating on management, Robby Hammock (WTF?) has gotten his opening where he’s hitting .333 with some pop.  An overlooked gem?

Man on the Spot Update:

Jenks had 3 miserable starts adding up to 7 IP and Tony Blake had seen enough.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Some great power numbers from guys like Wineapple, Allen and Hammond. Erik Eckhenstahler has actually been better in the majors than he was in Melbourne. 





Predicted Finish:  Darin: 3rd in Euro / Tom: 3rd in Euro

Current Standing:  49-40 (3rd in Euro, 3 game out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .286 / 461

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.49 / 407

Current Team Salary:  $78,450,000 (Luxury Tax: $831,250)

All-Star Selections:  RHP Ben Sheets, RHP Danny Patterson, C Johnny Estrada, 2B Chase Utley, SS Derek Jeter, LF Walt Coon


 


Darin's Take

Overview:

The Ellas coaching staff has to be pretty pleased with where the team is right now. They've weathered some injuries, played good offense, and are seeing the pitching staff come together at the right time. It's still an uphill fight, as this is the most competitive we've seen the Euro since the infamous "everyone had a winning record" year, but considering this is usually a much better second half team, it's conceivable that they win it all. But let's not count our chickens too soon. Still, it's nice to not have to write phrases like "slow start" or "disappointing first half" this year.

Offense:

It's been one of the best lineups we've seen in Athens. Burroughs' injury looked really bad for this offense, but everyone has stepped it up in a big way. I mean, what got into Derek Jeter? No sophomore slump for Rockwell, and a great rookie campaign for Peppers (too bad it's such a good year for rookie hitters...he might have run away with ROY most other seasons). How bad do you think Bedford wishes they hadn't traded Walt Coon? Last year's "throw in" of Alex Sanchez looks like gold now, and who can complain about getting offense out of your middle defensive positions?

Pitching:

They've had their problems, but those issues are being resolved, and the staff just keeps on improving. Wade "Biggest All Star Snub Ever" Miller is 12-0! Hampton has been up, down, and injured, but overall, a pretty good year. Jennings was a smart signing, and can you tell that Ben Sheets is happy to be back in Greece? Even Javier Vasquez has seen a 1/2 run shaven off his ERA in recent starts. Rookie Christopher Lambert has looked good in his one start, but don't expect him to get many more unless there is another injury or a trade. The bullpen has been a pleasant surprise; relief has historically been a problem for the Evzones, but apparently the "no-name" pen is a better idea than the "full of All Stars" variety.

Biggest Surprise:

Jeter. His numbers speak for themselves. Probably a run away Comeback Player if Paul Konerko cools off. 

Biggest Disappointment:

Hampton's inconsistency. And injury problems. 

Man on the Spot Update:

Vasquez has been better lately, but he still gives up too many long balls for a park like the Malakadome. Expect Hey to trade him if he can.

Tom's Take

Overview:

With the best infield in SLB and finally 5 quality SP, this looks like the Evzones best chance to make it back to the playoffs in years.  The rebuilding program they went on a couple of seasons back has produced a lineup of Coon, Rockwell, Peppers and Sanchez, all carrying the offense for less than $3mil total.  A major injury to Sean Burroughs and minor injuries to Hampton and Miller have slowed the team down, but they’re still only 3 games back, which for a notoriously second half team is a pretty good place to be.  If they can get Sheets and Vasquez to start putting up some Ws, they should get to play in October, where, the safe bet is, their bullpen will take them down once again.

Offense:

They are good, as expected, but there are plenty of other teams pretty comparable this year.  The Evzones do have the benefit of having a solid hitter at every position including 2B with Utley, SS with Jeter and C with Estrada.  Chest Rockwell continues to maul the league’s pitching, though he’s being overshadowed this year by the guy he beat out for ROY last season, Walt Coon.  Coon is one of those guys GM Tom Hey picks up who looks average in talent but really does damage.  Alex Sanchez has been the perfect solution to the Evzones’ lead off problems, on his way to 130 runs scored or so.  Dave Peppers has been a bit of a disappointment after a hot start.  He’s a HR or nothing guy.  A major injury to Burroughs hasn’t been such a big deal with the great fill in job Jacque Jones has done.

Pitching:

There’s Wade Miller and then there’s the rest of the team.  Miller is leading the league in wins despite a couple weeks on the DL and has yet to lose a game—and the bastards still left him out of the All Star game which has gotta be the biggest goof in the history of that institution.  Jason Jennings has turned out to be a good pick up with a 3.86 ERA.  Mike Hampton got off to a bad start but has improved since.  Javier Vasquez is just not working out for the Greeks and they must wish they’d never gambled on him.  The pen has been, as usual, bad with Tim Spooneybarger deciding to be the man to blow seemingly safe leads this season.  The guys getting the most innings-Patterson and Baez—are OK, and now Brenden Donnelly is back in Athens, so, the Evzones hope the pen will at least hold the big leads.  Ellas has been in the fewest 1 run games in the league, so if the pen can just be adequate, they should be able to get the win.

Biggest Surprise:

Derek Jeter is finally playing in a good offense and it shows.  He’s hitting .341 and could be a contender for the batting title if he gets enough ABs.

Biggest Disappointment:

The Evzones tried to psych up Javier Vasquez by making him the ace.  It didn’t work.  He’s pulling a 4.86 ERA and Ellas is dying to unload his contract.

Man on the Spot Update:

Perkins was godawful so Hey had to go out and trade for Ben Sheets.  Prediction accuracy: 100%.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Mike Edwards had 70 RBI, but has been traded for relief help to Philly. Lambert and Ostrosky were very disappointing, but that didn't stop Hey from promoting Lambert to the majors to fill in for an injured Jason Jennings.

 



Predicted Finish:  Darin: 4th in Euro / Tom: 4th in Euro

Current Standing:  47-43 (4th in Euro, 5.5 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .257 / 392

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  3.87 / 379

Current Team Salary:  $86,750,000 (Luxury Tax: $1,212,500)

All-Star Selections:  RHP Josh Beckett, 2B Alfonso Soriano 


 


Darin's Take

Overview:

It's been a pretty up and down year so far for 1st year GM Carmelo Guarneri, but overall, this team is much improved since 2009. Moving the fences in has increased the team run total by nearly 100 runs so far, while the pitching staff has established itself as one of the best in the league. There have been some holes, but recent trades with Havana and Cleveland have tried to remedy that. This team is right in this, and could make ex-GM Bill Norris look really bad if they get far in the playoffs.

Offense:

Better than last year, but not great. The team traded it's best bat (Matsui) for pitching help. but the addition of Derrek Lee should help. Boo-Ya has shaken off last year's woes and is once again piling up the extra base hits. Can Trot Nixon continue to hit at this pace? Can Vernon Wells get out of 2nd gear? Important questions heading into the 2nd half. The lineup has clearly gotten the job done so far, but it's not one that is going to give any opposing pitchers nightmares before game day. 

Pitching:

I thought the team was in big trouble when early Cy Young contender A.J. Burnett went down for the year, but Scotland has added Haren, Lohse and Verlander, more than making up for Burnett's absence. This is truly a championship rotation now with Beckett and Tankersly throwing so well. "I'm not sure Farnsworth is the guy you want at the end of the game, but that will all be sorted out." Oops, blew that call, but Kyle had floundered in Savannah for years without producing. Shane Mungitt is great. He may walk you, but you sure aren't making contact!

Biggest Surprise:

That the tighter dimensions at the park haven't inflated the pitching stats. Offense goes up, pitching stays the same. Crazy if you think abou tit.

Biggest Disappointment:

Armando Benitez is giving up the homer far too frequently on late innings.

Man on the Spot Update:

J.D. Drew has actually played slightly above his career lines. I'm as surprised as you.

Tom's Take

Overview:

OK, let’s take credit for predicting this team to be in 4th place—correctly—before noting that they are in 4th by 2.5 games and only 5.5 out of first.  Not exactly what we had in mind.  Given their recent big trade to add 2 more reliable SPs and a big bat, Scotland is playing for the title in Carmelo Guarneri’s first season at the helm.  It could be a risky strategy, but when the wins are coming, why sell yourself short?  Danny Haren should be spectacular in Scotland and Kyle Lohse should benefit more than most from the dead ball conditions.  If the bullpen can pull together and Soriano and Derrek Lee wake up, this team could shock the Euro.

Offense:

They suffer a good deal under the conditions, but thanks to BB Boo-ya’s return and a surprisingly good year from JD Drew, they are getting the job done.  They’ve scored almost as many runs as Savannah, which in the Scotland climate is pretty good.  They play small ball well.  Alfonso Soriano is having a terrible year (though he still end up in the All Star game bizarrely) and he is a good pick to step it up in the second half.  Adding Derrek Lee should be a nice move since he has the speed to hit for average as well as being able to go for the long ball. 

Pitching:

AJ Burnett was off to a great start before a season ending injury.  After that, Josh Beckett and Dennis Tankersly have picked up the ball, though Beckett has a losing record despite a 2.68 ERA.  The pen has been a real bright spot with Farnsworth doing very well in Scotland and Shane Mungitt looking like as good a reliever as the ammy draft has produced so far.  The team has recently added Lohse, Haren and Verlander so things are going to be quite a bit different in the second half than they were in the first.

Biggest Surprise:

Boo-Ya.  He’s back, Boo YA!

Biggest Disappointment:

Was probably Eulogio De La Cruz, who was sent packing to Havanna.

Man on the Spot Update:

Well, let’s see, Weaver, who Sexson was traded for sucks and Sexson was traded to Havana in the big deal to bring Haren, Lohse and Lee over.  Kinda moot at this point, right? (editor's note: Sexson was then traded to Tennessee. Think he's pissed?)

Minor League Wrap Up:

Management really likes what they've seen of Sean Boatright. Some good pitching numbers, but Josh Pearce has already shown that he isn't ready for the big leagues quite yet.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: Last in Euro / Tom: Last in Euro

Current Standing:  37-52 (Last in Euro, 15 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .268 / 414

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.99 / 468

Current Team Salary:  $50,500,000

All-Star Selections:  LF Kendry Morales, CF Aaron Rowand


 


Darin's Take

Overview:

What a tease! The Knights were cruising along for almost 6 weeks to start the year. Then someone reminded them that they were still the Knights and it's all gone to shit from there. The ofense has taken a pretty decent step forward, but the pitching continues to suffer from a combination of young and bad. At 15 games out, it looks like another race for the #1 Amateur pick again.

Offense:

They had to burn their Rule 5 pick to keep him, but Kendry Morales has been well worth it. He leads the team in HR and trails just Nick Johnson in RBI. Reyes and Hinske have been a good hitting combo on the left side of the infield, while Aaron Rowand has been decent in CF (only getting the All Star call when Lemming went down). Why is Justin Upton up already? He isn't ready!

Pitching:

Bad again. Myers, Wolf and Clement are 5th starters at best, while Newby still sucks, and Broadway has shown he is at least 2 years away from being ready at this level. Odalis Perez has done quite well here, and K-Rod is earning Comeback consideration (the year after I picjed him for the award of course). Plenty of bad to go around elsewhere in the pen.

Biggest Surprise:

Morales. His ratings were good, but he has been very good on a perennially bad hitting team.

Biggest Disappointment:

Can you call Broadway a disappointment?

Man on the Spot Update:

Morales has been all that and a bag of chips.

Tom's Take

Overview:

Somehow I think the Knights are going to win more than the 40 games I predicted for them.  Like, maybe by the end of the week.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is, they’re still in the Euro where last place is pretty much a sure thing at this point.  All the other teams are well above .500 and that leaves an improved London team still 9.5 out of 4th place.  Still, there have to be some happier fans in the UK, where they now have some offense, led by emerging franchise player Kendry Morales and #1 draft pick Justin Upton who was promoted straight to the majors.  Time to free up some cash for FA pitching and who knows?

Offense:

They are a heck of a lot better than I expected, around the middle of the pack in runs and hitting a ton of homers, only behind Paris and Ellas in that category.  Kendry Morales, a dark horse candidate for ROY, is getting the most attention, but Eric Hinske and Jose Reyes are quietly having very good .300 plus seasons.  Even Mike Rivera has chipped in 17 HR at this point.  If Upton pans out, this is an offense that could win a lot of games behind average or better pitching.  I’m not sure how it happened, but this suddenly became a respectable bunch. 

Pitching:

Yeah, this is the problem.  They are still the worst in the league and the only team officially giving up 5 runs a game.  Some bright spots have come in the form of Matt Clement, who seems to pitch pretty well here and Randy Wolf who has been winning games despite giving up exactly as many runs as the team average.  The bad thing is, their top pitching draft picks aren’t panning out.  Buckner, Broadway and Newby have all been major disappointments.  And to go by Rookie League numbers, there isn’t much coming down the pike.  It seems their best hopes are to free up some cash and try to buy some decent arms on the free agent market.  If they can pick up a couple of bargains, this team could start to have a chance.

Biggest Surprise:

Sure, his ERA is 4.99, but Randy Wolf has managed to go 7-2 on London.  That’s worth a hat tip.

Biggest Disappointment:

Yep, it’s former #1 draft pick Lance Broadway. 

Man on the Spot Update:

Lance Broadway, the new Kyle Newby.  Broadway went until, oh, about last week before he finally got his first victory putting him at 1-9.  He has had 9 QS, so he’s had some bad luck, but his 5.18 ERA makes you think he’s no ace on the horizon.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Jorge Padilla stepped up as the big bat now that Morales is up in the bigs. The pitching was neither here nor there. Would have been a different team with Broadway and Buckner there.