2012 Midseason Report

With the impending uncertainty of expansion things are getting very interesting in the SLB. We've seen teams like London and Savannah come out of nowhere to contend while perennial favorites Ireland and Havana struggle. We're starting to see a resurgence in the strength of our minor league prospects as another crop of veterans prepares to retire. As usual, nothing has gone as predicted, but that's what makes it fun, right?

Time to see how we're doing prediction-wise so far this year.


North Division

Darin's Take: What once looked like a run away for the Sailors is starting to tighten up as we head into the second half. Halifax opened a huge lead early, but has seen Cleveland start to catch up. If Bedford can stay healthy, they have a shot at this as well. There is little chance that the wildcard comes out of the North, so the division title is what everyone should be shooting for.

Tom's Take: This division is a bit of an embarrassment up to this point.  Halifax is back in a big way, but the other three teams are at best 8 games under .500.  I’m done predicting Bedford to do jack, that team is hard wired for underachievement.  Cleveland’s up and down season has been a mystery.  They could claw back into it, but it is starting to look like they are content to bag this one up.  Finally, Philly being in last is no real shock but their recent dive has put them in Tennessee territory, which is worse than we figured on. 

 

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 3rd in North / Tom: 3rd in North

Current Standing:  49-40 (1st in North)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .271 / 414

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.27 / 401

Current Team Salary:  $89,600,000 ($200,000 luxury tax)

All-Star Selections:  P Josh Beckett, P Craig Hansen, P C.C. Sabathia, 2B Josh Barfield, 3B Sean Burroughs


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Halifax heads into the break with what has to be the most uncomfortable 8.5 game lead ever. Despite the big gap between the Sailors and the rest of the pack, you just don't feel confident that this division is decided. We haven't seen the multitude of devastating injuries like in 2011, and the numbers all around are pretty good. So why the pessimism? Tough to put your finger on it, but it just doesn't seem like this team is a sure thing.

Offense:

The lineup has been more productive this year thanks to the good health of Mackey and Young. Sean Burroughs has been fantastic at third base as well, helping to make up for Fielder's short stint on the DL. The Sailors have missed Joseph Dyche's presence at leadoff as he was hitting .349 with 22 steals in 55 games before getting hurt. Japanese catcher Kenji Johjima hasn't exactly lit the world on fire so far, but he's still better than Jon Poterson. Team health seems to be the key to a good 2nd half, as the backups have proven to be inferior to the starters.

Pitching:

It comes as no surprise that Sabathia and Beckett have put up All Star quality numbers while Hansen and Benitez have been lights out in the 8th and 9th. What is a surprise is that the team is in first place with all the pitchers in between. The back end of the rotation is a complete patchwork of nobodies and also-rans who have miraculously kept this team afloat. Hanrahan and Phillips (who?) both have winning records despite gaudy ERA's, while middle relief has been a rough ride. Is Prince Fielder on the block simply to acquire one more starting pitcher? 

Biggest Surprise:

Despite his injury, Joseph Dyche has been outstanding in CF. His return next week should be a huge boost for the lineup. 

Biggest Disappointment:

Graham Koonce has really lost his mojo since leaving Paris. 

Man on the Spot Update:

I said that "no #3 starter is on thinner ice than [Horacio Ramirez]". That ice was strong enough to hold him for 17 starts (where he went 0-7) before finally cracking.

Tom's Take

Overview:

Well, I said this team couldn’t do any better than 3rd, but I’m not all that surprised they are in 1st.  Last year, it was Murphy’s Law and everything that could go wrong did from injuries to inexplicable slumps.  Now, they are back to doing what they do best, pitching plus high average run production.  Sean Burroughs is making up for last year and the young outfield of Davie, Dyche and Young has been well above expectations.  They do have some serious pitching problems to address if they want to do more than just take the North and get mowed down in the playoffs.

Offense:

They’re pretty well in the middle for the league, hitting a respectable .271 and having 414 runs scored.  Sean Burroughs is leading the way, 9th in the league in hitting at .329 and running a bit more this season with 20 steals.  He’s also leading the team in HR with 18, which is not such good news as it means Prince Fielder, Delmon Young and Graham Koonce are all well off the HR leaderboard.  Fielder has even been shopped around, which can’t make him a happy camper.  Joseph Dyche, who is hitting .349 and tearing up the basepaths will be coming off the DL soon, which is going to help.  The Sailors desperately need a catcher to hit, so they drafted Kenji Johjima out of Japan and sent him straight to the majors.

Pitching:

You get what you pay for.  When $13mil plus stars CC Sabathia and Josh Beckett take the mound, it’s a much rougher situation.  Horacio Ramirez, especially, has been brutal.  The pen has struggled, though Craig Hansen is having a good season up to this point.  Some strange numbers in the pen.  Gatsby is 5-0 despite an ugly ERA and Armando Benitez some how has a 3.76 ERA despite opponents hitting .339 on him.

Biggest Surprise:

Joseph Dyche wasn’t on my radar screen as an up-and-coming star, but his .349 Avg. and 22 SB indicate he could be the Sailors’ lead off man for the future.

Biggest Disappointment:

Horacio Ramirez is awful, but what did you expect?  Prince Fielder is probably more of a disappointment.  His .460 Slg. is one of the lowest on the team, worse than C Frank Coogan on Baltimore.  Lars Cain has been shopping him around.

Man on the Spot Update:

Eric Ridener got shipped off to Tennessee in a deal to get Joe Kemp and Aubrey Huff.  He’s got a 3.61 ERA going, but that won’t do much for you pitching there.  Kemp got dealt again and Huff is having an average year.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Pretty terrible actually. Okay, Kevin Roberts was good in the pen. And Richard Hidalgo had a street named after him in Vancouver.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 1st in North / Tom: 1st in North

Current Standing:  41-49 (T-2nd in North, 8.5 game out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .262 / 358

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.35 / 403

Current Team Salary:  $74,950,000 

All-Star Selections:  P Kelvim Escobar, 3B Eric Chavez, CF Scott Podsednik


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice.....well yeah, I said that picking Bedford was a bad idea, and they haven't let me down. Despite some fantastic pitching acquisitions in the off season, the Crunch just can't seem to keep their heads above water. Half their team is banged up and the bullpen is terrible, but at just 8.5 back, anything is possible. If the team can get onto a Cleveland-esque hot streak in August, this could become an interesting race. If not, it's just another season of unfulfilled promise.

Offense:

By league standards, the Crunch offense is not great. They rank 11th in the league in average and 13th in runs scored. That's not going to get it done. No one in the lineup is batting .300, though five players have 10 or more HR. Chavez, Abreu and the surprising Oreste Upchurch are carrying the load as David Ortiz struggles with his average once again. The team strikes out a ton (second only to Ellas). It's been a catching carousel with Ramon Hernandez being injured a few times. GM Richard Gin has been through his share of low-offense seasons, so how is he going to deal with it this season?

Pitching:

The Crunch staff is middle of the pack in terms of team ERA thanks to a rather hit-or-miss bunch of pitchers. Kelvim Escobar has proven to be the best of the pitching acquisitions thus far, tossing his way to 9 wins and a sparkling 1.86 ERA. Cy Young candidate? Dontrelle Willis has been effective when healthy (and not mysteriously lounging in long relief) and William Bray has had a resurgence in his numbers. Unfortunately, Danny Haren hasn't panned out at all, floundering to a 2-8 record. Jeff Weaver has fared no better, and with Brett Myers no more than a #5 guy, the rotation has been inconsistent to say the least. The bullpen has some good performers (Putz, Riedling) but are really being dragged down by guys like Strickland (7 losses), Taylor and Ryan.

Biggest Surprise:

After going 12-12 with a mid-5.00's ERA, William Bray is back with 7 wins and a 3.72.   

Biggest Disappointment:

Danny Haren by a country mile.

Man on the Spot Update:

Bobby Abreu hasn't been outstanding, but he hasn't been horrible either. Call this a wash.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

I swear I will never again predict this team to win anything until they post like 5 seasons in a row in first place.  Disappointment doesn’t begin to describe it.  They landed three great SPs and Bobby Abreu in the off season so this was supposed to be “their year.”  Yeah, right.  Ortiz and Podsednik are in the tank, Haren blows, Jeff Weaver is getting walloped.  You get the picture.  Something is just wrong here.  They could, conceivably, come back—but at this point, who really thinks that’s likely?

Offense:

It’s never been really the strong point, but in recent seasons it seemed to be improving.  And, the hope was they would have “veteran leadership” with a roster that averaged over 35 years of age.  Try “over the hill” instead.  Ortiz is down in the .230s with only a 20 HR pace, Chavez is having an off year and Podsednik forgot how to get on base so he can steal some runs.  Oreste Upchurch is the only guy whose stats you’d consider a pleasant surprise.  Can they unload some of these guys on the basis of past glories and get something out of them if this just ain’t their year?

Pitching:

Kelvim Escobar is one bad dude.  So far his ERA is under 2.00 and he’s putting up a QS pretty much every time he takes the mound.  Dontrelle Willis is pitching well, though craptacular run support plus bad pen innings is depriving him of decisions.  The rest of the staff and bullpen is bad, bad, bad.  Especially distressing is Danny Haren, who is a waste of a contract at this point and Jeff Weaver who seems to be phoning it in now that he’s not the “ace.”  Pen is just horrid, especially so when you expect Bedford air to give you at least decent numbers.  Nope.  And Scott Strickland.  Ouch.

Biggest Surprise:

I guess I have to say Escobar, since nobody else is worth mentioning.  No surprise he’s good, but the move to Bedford has been nothing but gravy for the guy.

Biggest Disappointment:

Where to start, man?  Danny Haren for one.  He was 15-9 last year for Cleveland with a 4.71 ERA.  This year he’s 2-8, 5.25. 

Man on the Spot Update:

Kelvim Escobar has been awesome, if only the season did rest on his shoulders.  He’s 9-4 with a 1.86 ERA and a sick .294 OSlg.  Prior-esque.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Typical season out of the slugging prospects: low averages, high power, ton of K's. Surprising year out of Luke Hochevar, but Jason Ray seems like the most legit pitching prospect in the system.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 2nd in North / Tom: 2nd in North

Current Standing:  40-48 (T-2nd in North, 8.5 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .275 / 453

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  5.30 / 487

Current Team Salary:  $62,250,000 (Luxury Tax: $100,000)

All-Star Selections:  1B Hee Seop Choi, SS Derek Jeter, RF J.D. Drew, RF Grady Sizemore


Darin's Take

Overview
:

The Cleveland Dawgs looked to be down for the count in mid-May. Inexplicably bad pitching numbers had this team in dead last, challenging even Tennessee for the worst record in the league. But starting around June 1, this team has gotten hot, and despite still being 8 under .500, have the confidence that they can challenge Halifax for the division title. The team still has a lot of room for improvement, but if the pitching returns to it's career averages you can expect a big second half from the Dawgs. 

Offense:

Clearly the team's strength this year. Four players are batting at least .322 while six enjoy double digit homerun totals. Choi, Drew, and the surprising Sizemore lead a lineup that is 6th in the league in runs. Derek Jeter continues to be an effective leadoff man (despite two hip replacements and a walker) and Paul Konerko has broken out a bit and added valuable at-bats. The team has little speed and has big holes at second base and catcher, but overall this is an offense you can rely on to score when you need it to.

Pitching:

Like their counterparts down in Cuba, the Cleveland pitching staff is suddenly coughing up runs in bunches. Pitchers who have had good career numbers suddenly can't get anyone out. It's been a frustrating phenomenon for GM Mike McAvoy, but what can one do in this situation? You're not likely to get good value for players having bad years, so I guess you ride it out and hope they improve. Jeff Niemann has 11 wins despite a 5.00 ERA while Dennis Tankersly has just 3 with an ERA of 3.89. Jake Peavy is giving up a ton of hits while Runelvys Hernandez just isn't cutting it. The bullpen ERA's are also ugly, and some of them certainly need to be replaced (Ortiz, Eckenstahler). 

Biggest Surprise:

Sizemore. First chance at really starting every day and he's hitting the crap out of the ball. 

Biggest Disappointment:

I'll go with Peavy. Arm troubles? Confidence shaken? No one could have predicted a 6.33 ERA from Jake at this point.

Man on the Spot Update:

I think Sizemore is filling the #3 spot in the order just fine.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

And then the magic was gone.  After a couple seasons of being able to trade and sign their way to unexpected success, this season isn’t panning out.  As of late, the Dawgs are hot and it’s only halfway through a long season, but they have dug themselves a pretty deep hole.  If Jake Peavey can work out his issues and they can replace Runelvys or else experiment with a 4 man rotation, there’s some hope, but no doubt Halifax is going to see this season as “win at all costs.”  Is Mike McAvoy willing to throw it all into the chase or play it conservative and worry about Year 1 of the expansion era? 

Offense:

Doing pretty well.  Sort of in the middle in run production, but individual numbers are impressive.  Grady Sizemore is hitting .359, Hee Seop Choi is slugging .668, JD Drew and Paul Konerko are having some of the best years of their careers.  There are a couple of gaping, ugly holes, though, which is costing them big time.  Catching is abysmal with Laird and Walker both unable to hit water if they fell out of a boat.  Ronny “Feather” Boa has a .656 OPS, so lower than Choi’s Slg. alone.  CF has been a weak spot.  So, need some up the middle fixes to have a real competitive team.

Pitching:

Inconsistent.  Jeff Nieman is among the league leaders in wins, but his ERA is not so hot.  Tankersly has a much better ERA but has more losses than wins thanks to miserable run support.  Runelvys, Sowers and Peavey all have ERAs over 5.00.  Trying to get by on a no-name cheapo bullpen is costing them bad as outside of Billy Koch being so-so and Chad Bradford picking up wins after blown saves, they are just without redeeming value.

Biggest Surprise:

I’ll go with JD Drew.  He’s been an enigma in this league, but this year he’s got a 1.029 OPS so far and seems to be just getting better with age.

Biggest Disappointment:

You got a lot of choices here, too.  But Jake Peavey sticks out.  His previous good years earned him a $7.25mil contract but this year, his 6.38 ERA shows the reason he fell off the radar screen a few years back.  You can’t count on him.

Man on the Spot Update:

Scott Hodges got traded.  What a frickin’ shock.  He’s doing fine, Cleveland got Alex Gordon, who has All-Star potential.  Looks good for both teams at this point.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Alex Gordon is one of the top hitting prospects in baseball and had an outstanding season. The pitching was paper thin again, resulting in some embarrassing stats. Still a long way to go to make this a respectable farm system.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: Last in North / Tom: Last in North

Current Standing:  33-56 (Last in North, 16.0 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .273 / 393

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  5.14 / 465

Current Team Salary:  $65,500,000

All-Star Selections:  C Joe Mauer, 1B Craig Brazell, RF Will Hunting


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

After barely finishing in last place in 2011, one hoped that Philly was on the right track. But as we stated in the Hot Stove Heaters, the off season losses outweighed the gains, and now, predictably, the Fever are wallowing in last place. The season looks lost, so what is there to look forward to? The team has one of the best farm systems in the league, so perhaps we'll get a peek at some of the kids. Or maybe GM Brian B can work the trade wires to score a big trade for the future. Philly needs something to hope for, right?

Offense:

Simply put, this offense isn't good enough to carry a poor pitching staff. It seems like there are always gaping holes in this lineup that are never filled. Will Hunting is the star and Hank Blalock has done very well, plus the Fever have received HUGE contributions from Craig Brazell and Joe Mauer, offense they never saw coming. Even with those four, the team is near the bottom of the league in offense. Why? The rest of the lineup is thin, thin, thin. Rookie Cooper Osteen has been a good leadoff option (when healthy) but the team has received little to no production from Pena, Passucci or Schalk. Bobby Crosby has shown some power but can't hit for average. Overall, the lineup looks one star hitter short (especially considering the pitching....read on:)

Pitching:

Let's be honest here, this staff is struggling. No one in the rotation looks better than a #5 starter and the bullpen has been inconsistent at best. Six players have made starts and none have a winning record. Only Jason Marquis has an ERA under 4.00 (and that's at 3.96). But what did anyone expect here? Brad Penny is the career leader in losses, Brandon Webb has had a roller coaster career, and guys like Guthrie and Affeldt have never really distinguished themselves as go-to guys. Sadly Josh Palm, who was un-hittable in AAA, has gotten boxed around pretty badly in the majors. Calvin Trest, last year's surprise Rule 5 pick up has really struggled, same goes for Dante Inferno. Probably time to trade off the middle relief and set up for next season.

Biggest Surprise:

Craig Brazell. This guy was never more than a bench player and now he has 28 dingers at the break? Wah? 

Biggest Disappointment:

Wily Mo Pena's health problems have kept him out of the lineup and the offense has suffered for it.

Man on the Spot Update:

I wasn't sure that Cooper Osteen was up to the task of leading off, but before getting hurt, he hit .314 with 22 steals. His DL stint has probably cost him the ROY.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

Last season they were surprisingly good (for a while).  This season they are surprisingly bad.  They might finish with a worse record than the Thunder, which is really saying something since that team isn’t even trying to win.  They really can’t pitch at all and worse, the guys they thought were the future are getting tagged.  Some of the hitting is good and they thank the lucky stars for the day they traded for Will Hunting, but it isn’t enough to compensate.  Whither the Fever?

Offense:

Spotty.  Will Hunting is in the chase for the batting crown and is clearly the draw in this town.  Craig Brazell is having a career year, which is sadly being wasted.  At least he’s on contract for a while.  Cooper Osteen is the ROY favorite.  Some good things.  Wily Mo Pena is having a “no, thanks” year.  A lot of others are just sub-par.  Jack Schalk is a mystery.  He tears it up in the minors but is useless in the bigs.  What to do with him?  Does he have trade value or do the Fever stick with the guy?

Pitching:

It just ain’t pretty.  None of the starters have winning records and they all have ERAs over 4.00.  Even more disheartening, the guys who were supposed to be the future, Palm, Rohrbaugh and Trest are getting thumped.  I just don’t know what to say.  They are almost all supposed to be back next year, too.  I guess that makes protections for the expansion draft a little easier to sweat out.

Biggest Surprise:

Easy one here, Craig Brazell.  Yeah, dude led AAA in HR one year, but he’s never been more than a third tier 1B in the bigs.  But this year he’s unloading, 28 HR, .308 Avg., 6th in the league in Slg.  Hellllooo Craig.

Biggest Disappointment:

Lefty Relievers.   Trest, 3.82 ERA in 2011, is having a 7.12 fiasco year.  Rohrbaugh, not living up to the hype.  Inferno, still not doing it right.  So much for the ‘pen of the future.

Man on the Spot Update:

The “bullpen” has just been awful.  Inferno has a 6.35 ERA and has pitched a whopping 11 innings thanks to the fact save opportunities for the Fever are few and far between.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Became the first team to win 2 AAA titles in league history. Got fantastic years out of Al Pepper, Jim Lambert and Jay Bruce on the hitting end, while veteran Chris Reitsma got his last whiff of glory, winning 11 games. Actual pitching prospects did very well as well, particularly relievers Robert Rohrbaugh and Mark Romaczuk, both of whom posted sub-2.00 ERA's.


South Division

Darin's Take: Though the first and last place teams have fallen in as predicted, the middle three have thrown the league for a loop. Havana is suddenly yesterday's news, Baltimore has done better than expected, and Savannah is the hottest thing in baseball. Atlanta just won't lose, so barring some apocalyptic string of injuries, expect them to cruise to the division title. That leaves the Sabers; can they keep up with the Euro teams in the wild card race and make their first ever post season?

Tom's Take: Boy is this division making an idiot out of me.  OK, at least the “Atlanta in first, Tennessee in last” prediction looks safe, but the “Havana will give Atlanta a run for it” and “Savannah will be a lame 3rd place team again” predictions are off badly.  As is the expectation Baltimore would be in 100 loss territory.  Tennessee already has as many wins at midseason as I predicted them to have for the whole year, but that prediction was more about getting my math to add up than expecting that bad a year.  But if they have the league’s worst record again, does it really matter if they win 31 or 61?

 





Predicted Finish:  Darin: 1st in South / Tom: 1st in South

Current Standing:  60-28 (1st in South)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .296 / 515

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  3.51 / 331

Current Team Salary:  $73,200,000

All-Star Selections: P Homer Bailey, P Brad Lidge, P Mark Prior, P Kelly Wunsch, C Troy Paris, CF Darren Lemming, RF Eric Valent


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

It seems impossible that this team was the annual whipping boy for these Midseason Reports not too long ago. The Flyers are a machine right now, winning at a .682 clip, seemingly unphased by the Sabers breathing down their neck. They can hit, pitch, field....so hat's off to GM Jim Masters, your plan is a success. We know he's shaking in his boots about expansion, but come on, this roster is so deep that three losses, no matter how talented, shouldn't make a dent.

Offense:

Flawless? Perhaps not, but this lineup is a well oiled, run scoring machine. Darren Lemming, midseason leader for another MVP award, is LEADING OFF. Jesus. Dennis Dennis was platooned for awhile. Huh? It may not make sense, but damn can this team score runs. 5.8 per game to be exact. Eric Valent has stepped it up as another superstar (like they needed another one) while Chris Kolkhorst and Adam Lind have been fantastic when filling in for injuries. 7 of the 8 hitters are in double digits in HR (Hairston has 9) and everyone scores a ton of runs. Okay, enough gushing.

Pitching:

Mark Prior is well on his way towards yet another Cy Young (if he can hold off Escobar, that is). Add in Zambrano and Homer Bailey and you have easily the best 1-3 in the game. Morris has been a bit of a letdown, and Mahara is nothing special, but with this run support, no worries, right? The bullpen has been solid, especially late. Even middle relief is doing enough (Choate is 5-1 despite an inflated ERA). Can they do no wrong?

Biggest Surprise:

Nothing should surprise me with this team but I'll have to go with Valent. He's hitting about the same as last year, but has nearly matched last year's HR/RBI totals already. 

Biggest Disappointment:

I guess you'd say Matt Morris, right? He's giving up a ton of HR and has been getting by on run support.

Man on the Spot Update:

Morris is hardly making up for the loss of Santana, but it's hardly hurting the team.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

Atlanta has done pretty much what was expected, they got out to an early lead and have been on top of the South basically all year.  Do they have some weaknesses?  Sure.  They got spanked by Ellas this year and they have some underperformers in the batting order (yeah, Fullmer, I mean you), but what else could you predict at this point other than another title?  It’s just a matter of staying healthy and not having a bad break in the playoffs.

Offense:

Best in the league in terms of run production and BA, which, as a team is hovering around the magical .300 mark.  Darren Lemming is just unfair.  Eric Valent, Adam Lind and Chris Kolkhorst are all having better than expected years.  They are so stacked they can even afford to play D2J part time.  But I’m sure he’s stewing over that, so I’d question the logic there.  Only Troy Paris sticks out as a guy who is not pulling his weight.

Pitching:

Just sickening.  If you want to know why there is such doom and gloom about other teams’ pitching, it’s because everybody worth having is on this staff.  Not much rational argument can be made that Prior and Carlos Zambrano are the top 2 arms in the league in terms of “who do you trust to win the next game.”  Matt Morris is pitching well again.  Homer Bailey probably would win the Cy Young we predicted him for if Prior wasn’t so good.  Mahara seems “bad” in comparison, but he’s 7-5 fer crying out loud.  On paper, the bullpen looked shady, but they’ve actually been as good or better than any in SLB.  Brad Lidge went from an ugly season where his ERA was over 5.50 to dominating again.  Opponents are only hitting .161 on him.  The other guys don’t really hurt you even if their numbers aren’t crazy good.  If you were looking for a flaw, you aren’t going to find one.

Biggest Surprise:

Does anybody really surprise you much here anymore?  I’ll say the bullpen overall.  They aren’t a liability anymore.

Biggest Disappointment:

Probably Troy Paris.  He’s playing for a job with Jeffrey Clement tearing up the minors.  Chances are, he’ll be on an expansion team in 2013.

Man on the Spot Update:

Mahara is 7-5, 4.41 ERA.  I’m sure Jim Masters will take those numbers.

Minor League Wrap Up:

The Charleston All-Star factory continues to pump out an unfair number of quality prospects. Best scouting in the league? Or just some good HGH connections? Clement, Lowrie, Burns....these are your future Flyers, the only question is "when"? Gabriel Hernandez had an inexplicably good year on the mound, while Ryan Tucker, formerly a Top 3 prospect in the league, saw his stock drop.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 3rd in South / Tom: 3rd in South

Current Standing:  53-35 (2nd in South, 7.0 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .283 / 464

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  3.99 / 364

Current Team Salary:  $64,950,000

All-Star Selections:  P Eric Gagne, P Roy Halladay, P Phillip Humber, P Roy Oswalt, SS Wilson Betemit, CF Darin Erstad


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Okay, so there's hot, and then there is HOT. Savannah, left for dead after an 8-17 April, has gone on an unholy 45-18 tear to grab the midseason wildcard lead and put some serious heat on the division leading Flyers. Great pitching has lead the way while this no-name offense has turned it up a few notches. Could the Sabers finally be seeing the post season? It's not going to be easy, but if they keep up this pace, it's almost a sure bet.

Offense:

Adam Dunn has been limited to just 77 AB's, yet the Saber offense has scored a ton of runs (3rd in the league behind ATL and LON). The amazing part is that there isn't a household name in the lineup! Hafner, Hawpe, Linden, Betemit, Cuddyer...all once considered nothing more than bench fodder, yet they have gelled into a great offense. Jay Gibbons has been a huge boost, putting up ungodly numbers and making Saber fans forget Dunn is even on the team. Darin Erstad has had perhaps the best season in his long career, making the All Star team with SS Wilson Betemit. 

Pitching:

All the Cy Young talk has centered around Prior and Escobar so far, but I think Mr. Humber might have something to say about it. His 14 wins ties for most victories at the All Star Break, and coupled with just 2 losses gives him the best winning percentage in baseball. Halladay and Oswalt have been great lately as well, as has perennial long reliever Carlos Hernandez. Humber, Oswalt and 2nd year starter McCormick (7-0) have been fantastic as well. Shawn Chacon is finally gone (after an 0-6 start) and the success of McCormick as his replacement has made a huge difference in this team's fortunes. The team is finally finding the right combo for the pen after enduring some painful outings by Shirek and Briscoe.

Biggest Surprise:

Michael Cuddyer was always that 3B/OF bench guy until this year where he's OPS'ing over .900. 

Biggest Disappointment:

Mostly that it took a month to get going. Even a .500 April would mean a true division race right now.

Man on the Spot Update:

Todd Linden has met and exceeded any expectations of him in the outfield this year. 

Tom's Take

Overview
:

So streaky.  We had pretty well written this team’s obituary after a 2 weeks in the season and then, whammo, they become the hottest team in the league and claw their way into the Wild Card chase and maybe even the division race if Atlanta hits a skid.  It’s all about the pitching here, in particular the fearsome foursome of Halladay, Oswalt, Humber and McCormick.  If you have horses like that to ride, you can get anywhere.  The onus is on GM Rich Vohs now.  Critics in Savannah see him as an absentee owner who hasn’t really delivered when the Sabers had a chance.  Dink trades with Tennessee won’t cut it if these guys want to fix the bullpen and lineup issues enough to give chase.

Offense:

Nobody here is going to win you the MVP, but as a team they are effective.  Darin Erstad is having a heckuva year, probably as good as anybody as a lead off man.  Wilson Betemit is also doing a great job of getting on and getting in.  Mike Barrett is making sure catcher isn’t the league average hole.  Cuddyer, Hafner, Linden—no real complaints. Polanco is weak, but that’s no great shock.  They really could use a banger bat, though.  Maybe the Savannah-Tennessee pipeline will send Troy Glaus their way.

Pitching:

As stipulated above, you could make a case the starting rotation here is as good or better than anybody’s including Atlanta and Ellas.  Phillip Humber is the best young arm in the game, possibly on route to a Cy Young award if he can win enough games to overcome Mark Prior’s unhittability.  Mark McCormick is working out very well and Halladay and Oswalt are their usual selves even if that isn’t always getting a W.  Carlos Hernandez isn’t getting wins, but he’s doing much better than you’d have predicted.  The pen is another story.  Gagne is back and a fave early for Rolaids honors and Feliciano is fine, but the rest are trouble.  Need to fill a gap or two here to be playoff bound.

Biggest Surprise:

Um, the whole season?  Well, there’s obviously Humber’s 14-2 season with 15 of 18 QS.  Wicked.

Biggest Disappointment:

Adam Dunn has had a rough year and Savannah could always use a real HR threat.

Man on the Spot Update:

Shawn Chacon: 0-6, 9.92 ERA, Oh fer 8 QS.  ‘nuff said.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Nothing at all to get excited about. The only two good performers (McCormick and Briscoe) have been called up. Cordero too, though he wasn't really a prospect. 

 





Predicted Finish:  Darin: 4th in South / Tom: 4th in South

Current Standing:  44-44 (3rd in South, 16.0 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .274 / 423

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  5.10 / 455

Current Team Salary:  $60,550,000 

All-Star Selections:  P Don Drysden, C Frank Coogan


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

The Panthers looked like an easy call for 4th place in the South. They lost their best pitcher in Dontrelle Willis, overspent for some mediocre pitching, and entered the season with a low payroll. But the Panthers have managed to surprise, holding down 2nd place early before slumping their way to .500 at the break. So what does the second half have in store? With the pitching starting to take a beating, it looks like some moves are necessary to avoid another losing season. 

Offense:

It's a lineup built on speed, but the biggest star so far has been Dallas McPherson. Many Panther fans were enraged when management swapped perennial All Star Albert Pujols for McPherson, especially after he put up subpar numbers in Havana. But Dallas is back, knocking in 80 while slugging .642. The speed is still prevalent, with Paul Matthew's 47 steals, Joseph Kemp's 17 triples and Vladimir Guerrero's speed/power attack. Frank Coogan was an unlikely All Star after batting .274/14/52. David Wright has shown power but is still not showing his true potential as an elite third baseman. How much patience will management show?

Pitching:

They surprised for awhile, but recently the Panther staff has gotten knocked around pretty good. Carl Pavano has been great, Kyle Lohse okay, but Burnett, Montgomery, Brazelton...these guys suck it hard. GM Jose Guttierez has to do something to address this or it will be a long second half. Despite being grossly overpaid, relievers Don Drysden and Edwin Jackson have performed pretty well. The less said about the rest of the staff the better.

Biggest Surprise:

Don Drysden? An All Star?

Biggest Disappointment:

David Wright. Will he ever step it up?

Man on the Spot Update:

McPherson has already eclipsed his RBI total from a year ago. I think he's back.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

This team is much better than expected.  Granted, .500 isn’t flat out amazing and the pitching here is such that you wouldn’t put an ugly second half out of the question, but, give credit where credit is due: Jose Gutierrez is proving the Hot Stove writers wrong.  No way did either of us think this team would be better than Havana.  Will they be in the playoffs?  No.  Could they still be the red-headed stepchild of the South when the divisions get realigned?  Yes.  But, for now, enjoy a team that is defying the expectations.

Offense:

There are some real studs here.  And boy can these guys fly.  Paul Matthew is one of the most underrated values in the league as he’s got a shot to steal 100 bases and he’s consistently hit better than his ratings would make you expect.  Castro, Kemp, Patterson and Vladdy can all tear up the bases, too, and each is doing well in his own way: Castro for BA, Kemp on triples, Patterson on OBA and Vladdy on the HRs.  Dallas McPherson is back to MVP form.  Even catcher Frank Coogan earned a trip to the All-Star game.

Pitching:

Well, I don’t know.  Pavano is having a good year, Lohse is a consistent #3 sort of guy.  The bullpen spending spree hasn’t been so great as Drysden is OK, but beyond that, this is still a crappy pen.   What is up with Kris Benson?  In 5 “one last shot, jackass” games he’s been all but untouchable.  Do you really buy that?

Biggest Surprise:

Um, the whole season?  Willie Montgomery is interesting.  His ERA isn’t so hot, but the 7-4 record is nice from a guy that should be getting drilled in AAA.

Biggest Disappointment:

Dewon Brazleton has just never really panned out.

Man on the Spot Update:

Patterson has had some injuries, but he is hitting .315.  Pretty good.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Surprising power numbers from a team built on speed. John Mayberry impressed and likely won't spend long in the minors next year. John Heckman was outstanding and no one knows why. Great pitching all around, including a resurgent season from De La Cruz.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 2nd in South / Tom: 2nd in South

Current Standing:  38-50 (4th in South, 22.0 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .276 / 410

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  5.20 / 473

Current Team Salary:  $87,800,000 ($150,000 luxury tax)

All-Star Selections:  2B Chase Utley, LF Eric Dalton


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

You can hear it on the warm breezes during the tropical nights. From every village come the stories, the rumors, the myth. "The Curse of Posada". The Diablos last year in Cuba has been one to forget as they have sucked for no good reason. Cursed? Unlucky? It's anyone's guess, but something is definitely broken in Havana. A team of All-Star's can't hit, can't pitch, can't win. So what does GM Darin Keesing do? Sell off what he can and rebuild, or hold the team together and hope they rebound in Kyoto? So far the team has stood pat, but there may be some offers too good to resist come trade deadline time.

Offense:

Not horrible by any means, but these players should be better than league average. 6th in average, 7th in runs, 5th in homers. Dalton, Hamilton and Pujols have all been great while Chase Utley has staked his claim as best 2B in the league. Milton Bradley was doing really well before going down with a season-ending injury (and taking backup Termell Sledge with him). Now the defensive alignment has been shuffled up, leaving a glaring hole at third base. Matt Bush started hot at SS, but his sub-.300 OBP has landed him in the 8th spot in the order. Overall, the team has scored almost 130 fewer runs to this point than it's 2011 counterpart (though, to be fair, that team looked like it was eating steroids for breakfast).

Pitching:

The team was doing pretty well when the starting rotation was a mess, but now that it's pretty much in order, the team is in the tank. Makes no sense. Larry Brush has been banished to AAA, Les Beltre has been traded off, Millwood was sent off on waviers, but the team can't win. Mark Mulder has a K/BB ratio of 148/9 (16.4:1) but is 4-8. Barry Zito was a good pickup and Brownlie has been his solid self but the fifth spot has been impossible to fill. Bush, Striker, Beltre, Brush....all sucked. How soon before we see Ron Mexico? The bullpen is just one huge suckfest; seriously challenging Tennessee for worst in the league.

Biggest Surprise:

Barry Zito mostly floundered in Philly but leads the Diablos in wins and ERA. 

Biggest Disappointment:

Mark Mulder is mowing hitters down at a 11.3 K/IP rate but is also giving up a ton of hits.

Man on the Spot Update:

2 of the 3 mentioned here in the HSH (Beltre, Millwood) are gone, but Zach Greinke has fared pretty well so far. Still, .333 is not a good winning percentage.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

What the hell happened here?  This team is easily the biggest disappointment in the league up to this point.  They are almost 25 points off their team batting average from 2011 and it’s not really clear why.  The starting pitching seemed, again on paper, to be improved, but they aren’t delivering.  The bullpen is a total nightmare.  And, worst of all, this team is up in luxury tax territory meaning they are the same sort of financial catastrophe Halifax was last year.  This team was supposed to be the one to chase Atlanta and cruise into Japan with a bright future.  Now, they are asking themselves a lot of questions.

Offense:

Went from best in the league to 9th.  Wowzers.  I couldn’t tell you why if my life depended on it.  Chase Utley is, frighteningly, better than he was in Ellas, so no blame for dumping Hodges.  Dalton, Hamilton and Matsui are all pretty much on usually career numbers.  Termel Sledge is mean.  Albert Pujols was on an MVP tear for a month but he’s been on a milk carton ever since.  Matt Bush isn’t really getting it done as the lead off guy and the backups aren’t worth squat, but is that really enough to drag this team down into the third tier?  If I were a manager, I’d be pulling my hair out.

Pitching:

They just can’t get this right.  Bobby Brownlie is back on form again, but that still means only 6 wins.  Zito is really having a nice season, which should have made a difference off last year, but it really hasn’t.  Mulder and Greinke are having the kind of years, ERA-wise that GM Keesing would be happy with if the team was hitting on 2011 pace, but without that, they can’t win.  The search for a 5th starter has been futile.  Dave Bush hasn’t been pretty.  Come to think of it, if your name is Bush, people in Cuba don’t like you, you can bank on that.  Maybe the Diablo Bushes take the Fidel rants personally.  When Jose Canseco goes to the bullpen, you might as well leave. It’s about as pleasant as Swedish country music.  There is not…one…single…good reliever on this team.

Biggest Surprise:

Barry Zito might be having his best year in SLB.  So unpredictable.

Biggest Disappointment:

Um, the whole season?  David Bush’s 2-7, 7.07 season stands out as a particular eyesore.

Man on the Spot Update:

Chase Utley is tearing shit up.  6th in the league and hitting, making Ellas miss him in a big way.

Minor League Wrap Up:

So, do the Diablos just have a farm system full of AAAA guys? Striker, Mexico, Bush....all great in the minors, all suck in the majors. Makes one worry that guys like Bourjos, Thibault and Ojeda won't amount to much either. The team is determined to keep drafting relief pitchers into one pans out. So far, no luck.




Predicted Finish:  Darin: Last in South / Tom: Last in South

Current Standing:  31-57 (Last in South, 29.0 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .261 / 362

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  5.56 / 515

Current Team Salary:  $46,100,000

All-Star Selections:  C Tony Montana (alt.)


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Here come the Thunder! Okay, that statement is more likely to provoke laughter than fear, but Tennessee is taking winning seriously. Sure, the pitching is still a mess and the team is 26 games under .500, but rather than sit back for another year hoping the rookies turn the corner, GM Ben Royer has opened up the coffers and started putting together a major league offense. While it's only one step in a long journey back to competitiveness, the results can't be ignored. Back to back 18 loss months in April and May were followed by a 13-15 June, many of those victories at the expense of good teams. Can the Thunder continue the upward trend as they prepare to move to Thailand?

Offense:

The offense has clearly been priority #1 this season as Royer has added some key pieces to the lineup. After stealing SS B.B. Boo-Ya from Scotland (for a struggling Christopher Lambert), he added Carl Crawford from Philly and, just announced, Troy Glaus from Ireland. The result is a pretty balanced lineup that now has a veteran presence to help out youngsters like Montana, Murman and Gaston. Boo-Ya has really turned it on, adding about 70 points to his average since arriving in Knoxville. Murman and Montana are matching each other HR for HR while Crawford steals bases seemingly every game. Can Glaus turn his year around now that he's out of the cold and damp? 

Pitching:

Let's face it, still bad. But bad is relative, as the team ERA at this time last year was over 7.00. Romero has a tough 2-7 record thanks to the bullpen blowing most of his good starts while pitching coach Ron Guidryseems to have found the hitch in Les Beltre's delivery. Eric Ridener has been another bright spot, as has reliever Rudolph Quinonez. As for the rest, not so hot. Kuo has failed to live up to last year's promise, Adam Wainwright is sucking for yet another team, and most of the bullpen is downright awful. Next year could be different if the team can land a big name ace and Kevin Thompson lives up to the hype, but for now, expect more high scoring affairs in Tennessee.

Biggest Surprise:

Not only has Royer decided to accelerate the rebuild process, but his trades have all been very good. 

Biggest Disappointment:

I'll go with Kuo. He has sucked, and he no longer has any trade value.

Man on the Spot Update:

Huff was our guy here and he was traded to Halifax for a package including Eric Ridener.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

Well, yeah, they are losing, but they might avoid 100 losses and they could even avoid being the worst team in the league, though I’m not sure that’s a goal.  Regardless they showed improvement and that’s probably all you could ask.  Oddly GM Ben Royer has been trading for some vets—Glaus, Teixeira and Crawford, while dealing off some highly touted prospects like Lambert and Kemp.  Planning on protections for the expansion draft?  I don’t know.  It’s not really following the Atlanta model, if that’s the expectation.

Offense:

Down at the bottom, but Bedford and Scotland are arguably worse.  Tony Montana is the only real star, though his understudy Thurman Murman at least gives them the option of trading a much sought after hitting catcher for a needed piece of the puzzle next year if desired.  They added some serious speed in Crawford and Boo-Ya, though how that is part of a long term strategy since Crawford and Baldelli are upcoming FAs.  Adding Glaus makes it interesting, at least.

Pitching:

They are the worst in the league, to no one’s great surprise.  What is especially upsetting, however, is the lack of improvement with the young arms.  Kuo regressed to incompetence, Wainwright has had ugly numbers and David Asher is just horrid.  Not much better for Beltre and Romero, though they would be OK as 4-5 starters with run support.  Chris Lambert finally wore out his welcome and was traded to Scotland where he’s really stunk.  There’s nothing in the bullpen, so if they want to have an impact in the Asian division next year, they’ll need to open the checkbook for some relievers.

Biggest Surprise:

Making trades for vets now.  What’s going on there?  Late breaking news is Troy Glaus headed here.  What is Royer up to?

Biggest Disappointment:

I’d probably say somebody who’s been in a trade like Teixeira, but he hasn’t been on the team all year long.  Man on the spot Kuo and traded off to Scotland Lambert both blew out the idea the rotation of the future was in place.  Whoops.  Start over on that plan.

Man on the Spot Update:

Kuo has been lit up this year.  2-7, 6.11 ERA.  Last year=fluke.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Outstanding years from Blong, Boatright and Feliz (two of whom have since been promoted). Kevin Thompson is THE MAN.


Euro Division

Darin's Take: I expected the division to be competitive, but I was clearly off on which teams would be competing. I had Scotland 2nd and London last. Oops. Ellas has had a hot June but expect this to be a 3 team race all the way, with the second place team battling Savannah for the wildcard spot. Sadly this is the last year for Ellas in the division, so enjoy this race while it lasts.

Tom's Take: They have 3 teams that would be in 1st in the North, which is no real shock, but that one of them is the London Knights is.  So is the last place battle between Ireland and Scotland, who looked to be above .500 teams in the spring.  I’ll make another likely wrong prediction, but I’d guess that things will hold for Ellas and Paris.  One will be the division champ, the other the wildcard as Savannah comes back to earth.  London will do the same, but probably finish with 85 wins or so, which is a huge accomplishment for them.

 





Predicted Finish:  Darin: 1st in Euro / Tom: 1st in Euro

Current Standing:  55-34 (1st in Euro)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .277 / 461

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  3.90 / 368

Current Team Salary:  $84,450,000 ($1,075,000 luxury tax)

All-Star Selections:  P Wade Miller, 1B Dave Peppers, 2B Alfonso Soriano, 3B Chest Rockwell, SS Alex Rodriguez


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Early in the season it looked like Ellas would constantly be looking up at Paris and the suddenly good Knights, but a 20-9 June has jettisoned them to the top where they hope to win their second straight division title. The offense is top notch as usual, but the team has unexpectedly posted the league's 2nd best team ERA despite 30 or so wasted innings by Werth and Norrick. Can the team stay healthy while the other teams put on their second half attacks? Will Jason Varitek be effective when he finally returns from his injury? Can't wait to find out.

Offense:

Speed? We don't need no stinking speed. It's all about the power, baby, as 5 different Evzones have 20+ homers. Chest Rockwell and Dave Peppers have nearly identical numbers at the corner infield spots while A-Rod, and Soriano have combined for 40 HR up the middle. Best infield in baseball? No doubt. Derrek Lee has been a bit of a bust (by Greek standards) in RF, but Wilson and Coon have been fantastic in the other OF spots. Can't keep a catcher healthy, but hopefully Varitek will join the hit parade upon returning next week. The rookie hopefuls just didn't pan out, prompting trades for veteran run producers.

Pitching:

Three starters are on pace for about 17 or 18 wins while the other two are at or above .500. Sounds like a winning formula to me. Wade Miller got the All Star nod though either Webb or Sheets could have gone instead. Kerry Wood has been the "worst" of the starters, posting a 6-7, 4.67 line (which would be the best on a few teams). The bullpen has finally settled down as Urbina's early ERA troubles are being remedied and Spooneybarger is making us forget Norrick. Professor Farnsworth is kicking ass and taking names.

Biggest Surprise:

"The Spoon" has posted a sub-2.00 ERA through 29 IP. Maybe this really is Ellas' year. 

Biggest Disappointment:

Derrek Lee? A ton of strikeouts and not much power.

Man on the Spot Update:

I picked Kyle Dahlberg here but he has since been traded to Scotland in the Soriano deal.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

Ellas had to wait out some hot starts from London and Paris to rise to the top, but they have consistently played about at the record you’d have predicted them to.  The pitching is going like a well-oiled machine and with the usual Inky-ball homer fest, the offense is dangerous as all hell.  They are pretty much a lock for the playoffs, but what then?  Nobody would say they are favored to win over Atlanta, regular season ass-whippings of the Flyers aside, so can GM Tom Hey finally taste the champagne?  Sentimentalists hope so, realists would look at the track record and laugh.

Offense:

It’s a typical Evzone Murderer’s Row.  Rockwell and Peppers are both on 50 HR pace and Coon and Preston Wilson could each chip in 40.  Adding Soriano as lead off man has worked out well enough as his average is up 40 points since the trade.  A-Rod should lead the league in walks again plus be in the top 5 in runs scored.  They don’t know what to do at catcher between injuries and low run production, but that’s the 8 hole, so who cares?  They are seriously pissed about Derrek Lee’s post-contract malaise, but that’s the only real sore spot.  He could be “due” though.  Rob Mackowiak has been a mean pinch hitter.

Pitching:

They are second only to Atlanta and for a team that has always expected no more than “keep us in it” from the arms, that’s saying a bunch.  Wade Miller, John Webb and Ben Sheets are all on 15 win trajectories and Webb, for whatever mysterious reasons, has even evolved into a dark horse Cy Young candidate.  Whatever personal journey he took on those 3 years out of baseball did him a world of good.  Wood and Jennings are .500 pitchers, which is acceptable.  After shedding Werth and Norrick, the pen has been solid, thanks largely to Villafuerte getting back his stuff and Tim “I’m better in the majors” Spooneybarger.

Biggest Surprise:

John Webb.  The dude is for real and a dark horse Cy Young candidate.  Not bad for a guy who spent 3 years out of baseball.

Biggest Disappointment:

Norrick and Werth.  Will this team ever have a season they don’t have to make midseason deals to fix the bullpen holes? 

Man on the Spot Update:

Dahlberg didn’t work out so he was traded for Soriano, who’s proving to be a much better lead off hitter, his Avg. is up about 35 points since the trade.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Michael Pelfrey dominated in his final tune up before cracking the Osaka rotation. Norrick and Werth tortured the scouts by dominating AAA after stinking it up in the majors.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 3rd in Euro / Tom: 2nd in Euro

Current Standing:  51-36 (2nd in Euro, 3.0 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .295 / 501

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.65 / 423

Current Team Salary:  $89,450,000

All-Star Selections:  P Tim Hudson, SS Orlando Cabrera, LF Lance Berkman


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

After posting the league's 4th worst record in 2011, the Pimps are back to their winning ways. They're doing it with the offense again, scoring big and hoping the pitching keeps them in it. The league's highest payroll has yielded some good results, but if the season ended today, Paris would be watching the playoffs from home. Does GM Michael Taylor have any big trades up his sleeve?

Offense:

Another year, another huge year from a formerly average player. Justin Morneau is 2012's unexpected Paris MVP candidate, bringing his league leading 87 RBI to the All Star game. No one is surprised by Lance Berkman who is tearing it up in Paris' friendly confines. Everyone who has played at least 50 games is batting .297 or higher, including nobodies like Hal Kelly and Nic Jackson. Sanchez and Cabrera at the top have been tremendous, though only Sanchez has shown any base stealing ability. High OBP and SLG all around. 

Pitching:

The starting rotation has done a fantastic job while the bullpen has been horrid. I feel like I've typed that a few times before. Does anyone (besides ATL and ELL) have a good pen? Jerome Williams would be a Cy Young candidate if his ERA were lower, Tim Hudson was a worthy All Star and Byung-Hyun Kim has been just great. The bullpen has been pretty bad, but what do you expect when you're running Howell and Ellis out there every day? Baez and Villareal should be better.

Biggest Surprise:

I'll go with Nic Jackson, but should anyone be surprised by this team's offense anymore? 

Biggest Disappointment:

Baez has been ineffective at times in the 9th.

Man on the Spot Update:

Derek Thompson is 7-6, and while that's below his usual career winning percentage, it's been good enough for the back end of the rotation.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

You knew this team was going to come back with an attitude after last season’s trip to the back of the standings.  And sure enough, they’ve been in first off and on while trying to figure out how to get back to the playoffs, which if they don’t manage to do will cost them a hefty sum in lost salary.  They are back to getting stupid numbers out of people who could barely hit elsewhere and the Pimps are getting the quality starts out of the rotation they need to be in the hunt.  The bullpen is an embarrassment, though, and it’s hard to say if they can avoid enough blown leads to eek out a trip to the post-season.

Offense:

Who’s on the Pimp Juice this year?  Justin Morneau, come on down!  How about an RBI a game out of a part time player for most of his career.  Check.  How about Hal Kelly, a catcher with middling talent hitting .336?  Sure, why not.  .500 slugging averages all around?  Yeah, got that.  Berkman for MVP?  Could make the case.  Can’t get anything out of a string of 2B, but nobody is perfect right?  Well, OK this team has been in the past, but still.

Pitching:

If you’d have asked GM Michael Taylor if he’d take a starting rotation with nobody above. 4.30 ERA, I’m sure he’d have said, “Hell yeah, I will.”  Jerome Williams is back to icing people down and Tim Hudson really seems to dig it here.  Day, Kim and Thompson are all eating up innings and putting up Ws.  Then there’s the bullpen.  Oh, boy.  Five guys with ERAs over 7.00, Braden Looper demoted to long relief, closer by committee.  Not pretty at all.  Antonio Osuna was put on waivers and the rest of the league said, “No, thanks” so he’ll finish his career among the Frogs in Quebec.  Can they do anything to fix this or do they just ride it out?

Biggest Surprise:

Hal Kelly or Justin Morneau.  Kelly because not much was expected of him and he’s displaced Shea Hillenbrand, Morneau because he’s going absolutely bonkers.

Biggest Disappointment:

Braden Looper.  Wasn’t this guy supposed to be one of the top 10 relievers in the league?  0-5 with a 9.00 ERA.  Whoa, nelly.  Paris is becoming a graveyard for relief pitchers.  Is it time to fire Kent Tekulve?

Man on the Spot Update:

Kim is 7-4 with a 3.55 ERA.  Certainly one of his better years and a good part of why Paris is right there in the division race.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Pretty decent hitting numbers even before this year's crop of draftees arrived. DePaula, Pawelek and Italiano all impressed on the mound.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: Last in Euro / Tom: Last in Euro

Current Standing:  50-39 (3rd in Euro, 5.0 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .278 / 474

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  5.08 / 476

Current Team Salary:  $55,900,000

All-Star Selections:  C Johnny Estrada, 1B Nick Johnson, LF Kendry Morales, RF Jeremy Reed


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

Well looky here, who saw this coming? Clearly not me, as I reflexively picked the Knights to finish last out of habit. Little did I know that they would turn into an offensive juggernaut and start kicking everyone's ass. London was even in first place for awhile, but have recently seen the pitching slow down and the lead slip away. GM Sean O'Hallaran would be smart to promote Matsuzaka, trade for another arm (or both) and go for it this season. With the affects of expansion remaining a mystery for next year, it's a good idea to go for broke while the window is still open.

Offense:

London's offense has gone from the Kendry Morales show to an overall team effort, giving the team one of the best lineups in the league. Reyes and Reed have been very good, while Johnny Estrada has shaken off his early struggles to become a key contributor in the lineup. Johnson and Hinske have been good at the corners, and even Justin Upton is starting to look comfortable at the plate. One factor not to be overlooked is team health, as 7 starters have played in every game this year. 

Pitching:

Johan Santana was a huge addition to this rotation, but he's been outplayed by two unlikely pitchers. Lance Broadway has finally gotten his stuff together and has already matched his win total from last year. Joe Mays has 10 wins as well, thanks to good run support early and better pitching as of late. On the other hand, the sooner O'Hallaran can replace Lilly and Newby the better. Sure, Lilly has managed a 6-6 record but he's giving up nearly 7 runs a game. The bullpen has struggled (yawn). There are moves to be made here.

Biggest Surprise:

Lance Broadway looked like another #1 pick who would never pan out but he seems to have turned the corner. 

Biggest Disappointment:

William Buckner's ERA has ballooned since a great 2011 season.

Man on the Spot Update:

"The threesome of Hinske, Estrada and Johnson needs to combine for about 80 HR and 240 RBI to give this team a solid enough offense to maintain success all year."  They're at 50 HR and 160 RBI so far. Goal seems in reach.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

Nope, you won’t have the Knights to kick around anymore.  They held on to first for a long time before taking a dive the last couple of weeks, but this team is for real, kids.  They are absolutely crushing the ball on offense and have, so far, found enough arms to get the job done, in a sort of “look at the bottom line” way.  It still seems a long shot for this team to make the playoffs since Ellas is still the class of the division and the Wild Card is going to be a scorcher with Paris and Savannah, at minimum, in the hunt.  But, with cash on hand and still more prospects down on the farm (like #1 and #2 starters Matsuzaka and Volstad), this team will have something to say about who is the top dog in the Euro next year when the Evzones decamp for Osaka.

Offense:

Baseball fans, Kendry Morales is one mean dude.  Despite Lemming’s predictable ill numbers, he’s my midseason MVP as his power numbers are carrying this team.  That and Jose Reyes is the best lead off hitter in the league hands down.  Add a better-than-expected year out of Johnny Estrada and solid citizen production from Reed, Nick Johnson and Justin Upton, and you’ve got a top 5 offense.  Johnson is up for FA and Reed is up after next year, other than that, these guys will be around for a long time.  This looks very similar to the way Ellas got back into the groove with Rockwell, Coon and Peppers.

Pitching:

OK, the team ERA isn’t so hot, but they are more effective than that would lead you to believe.  Johan Santana might have been the FA pick up of the year as his 2.43 ERA is spiffy, even if he’s being denied decisions by bullpen/run support issues.  But the guy has to go out and duel the Priors and Millers every day.  The real surprises are Lance Broadway and Joe Mays who are both going to win 13-15 games.  Ted Lilly even has a winning record, though he’s getting hit pretty hard.  Nobody in the pen has a great ERA, but they don’t seem to be costing the Knights to many games.  Rafael Soriano is up there on the saves board.  Harper and Williamson are holding the fort down.  Nothing to bitch about given how many teams in the league have total chaos in the bullpen.

Biggest Surprise:

Jeez, anybody.  I’m just going to say Johnny Estrada with his .918 OPS.  Never hit like that for me, the punk.

Biggest Disappointment:

Kyle Newby has only managed 5 QS in 18 starts and has been thumped for 27 HRs so far.  Probably time to find another starter.

Man on the Spot Update:

Bingo.  Lance Broadway a very good call.  He’s 10-5, 4.17 ERA.  Few better bellwethers to tell you why London is right in it.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Volstad had a fine year, but didn't show the progress we expected. The kid is only a year out of high school so expectations shouldn't be so high, but when someone goes #1 in the draft, you tend to have high expectations.

 




Predicted Finish:  Darin: 4th in Euro / Tom: 3rd in Euro

Current Standing:  39-48 (4th in Euro, 15.0 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .260 / 394

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.36 / 398

Current Team Salary:  $76,600,000

All-Star Selections:  P A.J. Burnett, P Javier Vazquez, 2B Scott Hodges


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

I knew the off season would take it's toll on this roster but I still predicted 84 wins for the Invaders. That seems all but impossible at this point, and Ireland is starting to trade players off and regroup for the off season. Troy Glaus (and his huge contract) just got shipped to Tennessee, a move that was clearly made with the auction in mind. Overall, the numbers here aren't bad, but the team just can't seem to win. Will they at least avoid last place?

Offense:

It's been about as good as you would expect considering the climate at Lucky Leprechaun. It's going to look a whole lot worse, however, now that the league's career HR and RBI leader is gone. That puts the offensive burden on Jason Lane (a prime candidate for Comeback Player) and Austin Kearns. Scott Hodges was a nice pickup, returning to his original team (but at the cost of prospect Alex Gordon). Tejada, Kotsay and Bowen have all batted well but have contributed very little in run production. 

Pitching:

Good rotation, bad.....oh God, I can't type it anymore. Nathan hasn't quite been Cy Young quality but his numbers are good, and Vazquez and Burnett were certainly All-Star caliber. Casey Fossum has been a big surprise, translating some suspiciously good AAA numbers into major league success. Ireland took a chance on Kevin Millwood, snagging him off waivers from Havana, but he has yet to show improvement. Matt Anderson and Ricky Stone have been very disappointing in relief.

Biggest Surprise:

Jason Lane. His career looked over after batting .179 in limited duty for Philly last year.

Biggest Disappointment:

Just 26 RBI from Kotsay despite batting .331?

Man on the Spot Update:

I said that Kearns had to bat better than .249 to help make up for the loss of Josh Hamilton. He's hitting .279, but he has no hope for 50 HR or 120 RBI.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

We gave this team a lot of props for finding ways to be in the playoff hunt for a few years running despite some tough contracts and salary constraints.  But his year, gaming the FA system caught up with them.  They can’t hit at all, they’ve unloaded Troy Glaus in frustration and the Cy Young winner ain’t coming out of Ireland for once.  At this point, I think they are pretty much playing to stay out of last so they can avoid the salary hit and thus go into the FA market with hopes of making an impact and having a shot at the division in 2013.  It’s been a rough year, though, no doubt about that.

Offense:

Ireland isn’t a friendly place to hit, but even granted that, this has been a pretty sorry bunch.  The bright spots:  Scott Hodges has proven to be a wise investment, Mark Kotsay is having a career year and Jason Lane is a top candidate for Comeback Player.  The “hate you, loser” crowd is Miguel Tejada who is just having a stinker of a season, Andruw Jones who hit his mental “off” button again, and, well, everybody else who are collectively playing mediocre ball. 

Pitching:

The ERA numbers are good, but they aren’t good enough to make up for the anemic offense.  Javier Vasquez gets special mention for proving he can still be a top of the line guy.  Burnett and Nathan are about what you’d expect.  The bullpen has cost them some games but isn’t, per se, awful.  Well, OK, Kevin Millwood sucks in a big way, but were you dumb enough to believe he was really going to be reliable again?  I hope not.

Biggest Surprise:

Biggest Disappointment:

Third basemen as a group.  Glaus has 21 HR but only hitting .231.  Lowell and Sandberg are on the Mendoza line.  Glaus really has really eaten up a fat contract here and not really done crap.  Be interesting to see what his value is this off season.

Man on the Spot Update:

Lane is having a terrific year hitting nearly .300 and probably on pace for 50+ HR.  Don’t blame him.

Minor League Wrap Up:

I would comment on the quality of the rookies but I don't think I can find any.



Predicted Finish:  Darin: 2nd in Euro / Tom: 4th in Euro

Current Standing:  35-55 (Last in Euro, 20.5 games out)

Team BA/Runs Scored:  .254 / 339

Team ERA/Runs Allowed:  4.32 / 404

Current Team Salary:  $71,950,000 

All-Star Selections:  P Pedro Liriano, 3B Miguel Cabrera, CF Carlos Beltran


 


Darin's Take

Overview
:

It's been a tough year for the Rebels. They looked like legit contenders after last year, but things haven't fallen out as expected this year and the team has floundered to 20 games under. The cold-weather-kills-good-hitters story is getting old, and hopefully management will build a smaller stadium to help compensate. GM Carmelo Guarneri is smartly starting to look at trade offers, but is he moving the right guys? The Boo-Ya for Lambert trade has been a total bust, and now he's offering up some of the only guys who can actually hit here (Beltran, Wells). Smart moves?  

Offense:

Worst in the league, of course. This isn't news and isn't unexpected. Clearly an average sized stadium is too big for this climate, so finding some cozier confines seems to be priority number one. Wells, Beltran and Cabrera have been as good as you can hope, but the rest of the has been pretty awful. Will Guarneri ever assemble the lineup of All Stars that can conquer Stirling Kilt Stadium?

Pitching:

Good rotation, and.....wait for it.....only a slightly bad bullpen. Harden has been the ace, and Verlander and Weaver (surprise surprise) would have better records with more run support. Even Brian Lawrence has been pretty good. Sadly Christopher Lambert hasn't been positively affected by the pitching friendly conditions, making the Boo-Ya trade look like a huge mistake. But don't give up on him yet; Jered Weaver looked bad last year as well, and he's turned out alright. Great pitching at the back end of the bullpen with K-Rod, Liriano and Mungitt. Garcia has pitched well, meaning his trade value is as high as it's ever going to get. Sell, sell, sell!

Biggest Surprise:

Have to go with Jered Weaver. Apparently the kid was destined to pitch in thick fog. 

Biggest Disappointment:

Lambert hasn't followed suit.

Man on the Spot Update:

Weaver has pitched as well as you can ask. Not his fault that the team isn't scoring behind him.

Tom's Take

Overview
:

Darin picked them for 2nd, I had them 4th so I’m better on that, but we both had them for 84 wins or more and, barring some unholy tear, they aren’t doing that.  More like fighting for their lives to avoid coming in last.  Playing in a big stadium in a town where 70 degrees is a scorcher is making it next to impossible for this team to score and it makes it a real guessing game to figure out what to do about it.  It’s time to start thinking ahead.  Will the Rebels look to move the fences in or focus on pitching and speed?  Seems the former since they dealt Boo-Ya, the prototypical Scotland hitter.  Either way, they got some work to do to avoid spending a couple years in the basement in the post expansion Euro.

Offense:

Shitty bad.  Miguel Cabrera is the only guy who can overcome the conditions to put up All-Star worthy numbers.  Beltran went, too, but that is probably a reward for 2011 more than a legit case he deserves to be there this year.  Vernon Wells is doing alright.  Carmelo traded off an unhappy Alfonso Soriano to pick up Kyle Dahlberg who, while uninspiring so far, as a fast catcher at least makes sense here.  Josh Phelps doesn’t as Scotland is not a good place for his all or nothing power stroke.  The rest probably would blow anywhere, frankly.

Pitching:

Artificially, they have some good ERAs, but the records don’t match.  Harden is the best of the bunch and Jered Weaver at least seems to be finding his way to being a solid major league starter.  Verlander has a great ERA, but how much of that is dead ball effect?  They took a big gamble on Christopher Lambert and so far it’s a mistake.  But, he’ll really be judged on the next couple of seasons.  The guys in the pen look pretty good, actually, save for Brock Landers who is having a mess of a year.  At the least, Shane Mungitt has developed into the closer he was predicted to become.

Biggest Surprise:

You’d have to say Jered Weaver.  He’s finally putting it together it would seem  His ERA is down something like 4 runs a game.

Biggest Disappointment:

Brock Landers is having a rough year.  The Evzones have made no secret of wanting to reunite him with his sidekick Chest Rockwell.  Maybe it’s time to make a deal.

Man on the Spot Update:

Beltran is hitting .300, but it’s not the same guy we saw last year.  His Slg. is down almost 200 points.

Minor League Wrap Up:

Yeah, wow, bad.